Please note, the main spoken language will be Swedish. The sessions below marked with an asterisk (*) will be held in English.
The pandemic has accelerated the shift to remote working and e-commerce, and restructured the commercial real estate (CRE) market, creating winners and losers. Logistics and warehouse properties, and residential and public service real estate have been the big winners. Retail is a long-term loser and hotel properties a short-term loser. The office sector contains both winners and losers.
We expect environmentally friendly prime offices in vibrant, large cities to be more resilient to the working-from home- trend than those of secondary quality in secondary locations. Still, transactions are very strong (though vacancies are increasing in most areas), rents are mostly stable and yields continue to tighten.
Will the pandemic mark the beginning of the end of the current real estate cycle? Should real estate companies prepare for an inevitable cooling in sector conditions?
- The ultra-loose monetary response to the pandemic continues to support property valuations and investment markets. The pandemic’s impact on the Nordic real estate companies rated by Moody’s has been barely visible to date. Companies may emerge from the pandemic largely unscathed. How prepared are they for the post-pandemic era and how do we assess the outlook for the real estate sector’s credit quality? What are the greatest risks?
- With GDP in Nordic countries recovering quickly, what is the likelihood of interest rate rises and potentially higher than expected inflation? The CRE market is strong, but for how long? How advanced are Nordic real estate companies in terms of environmental, social and governance (ESG) measures, as climate change and corporate governance increase in importance?
- Finally, how vulnerable is the Swedish bond market when it comes to liquidity and how important is it to financial stability? The Riksbank has begun to buy corporate bonds, but will this be enough to ensure sufficient liquidity in the secondary market if investor sentiment sours?
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Agenda09:05 - 09:15CET09:15 - 09:35CET
Real estate property outlook: Credit quality will remain stable in the short term
- Ultra-loose monetary response supports property valuations and M&A activity
- Even macro recovery in the Nordics but an uneven sector recovery – retail and hospitality hit, WFH strategies still pending and flight to quality
- Largest risks – refinancing risk, decreasing market values and ESG risks
- How well positioned are companies for the post-pandemic era?
09:35 - 10:15CETPanel: Status of the property market and key risks for the sector post-pandemic
- CRE market is strong, but for how long? Property market status and outlook
- Risks; office and retail properties, WFH and ESG
- Bond market appetite and other financing alternatives as hybrids
- Implications for credit quality – lessons learned from the pandemic
10:15 - 10:45CETNetworking & Coffee Break
10:45 - 11:35CETPanel: Liquidity in the Swedish bond market
- How liquid is the Swedish bond market and how important is it to financial stability?
- The market is significantly less deep and wide than the euro market, while the secondary market lacks transparency and is illiquid
- The Riksbank is purchasing bonds on the secondary market. Will this improve liquidity for real estate companies or only reduce risks in bond funds?
- Concentration of real estate issuers – bond market and banks (loans and RCFs)
- All markets froze at the same time – is diversification key?
- Some fund structures can challenge market liquidity
- Systemic risks; CRE exposure in bank and bond markets and households’ increased indebtedness
- Change in regulations – banks cannot hold bonds on their own books
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| Matthias Hellstern, Managing Director, has been with Moody’s Deutschland GmbH in Frankfurt since October 2004. Matthias is Team Leader in the European Corporate Finance Group heading the Frankfurt-based analytical team focusing on manufacturing industries. The principal industries covered by his team include Auto, Capital Goods, Paper and Packaging, and Building Materials. He is also managing teams in London and Stockholm that are covering the Real Estate, Shipping and Airlines sectors. Prior to his appointment as Team Leader, Matthias was Moody’s lead analyst for European building materials companies and steel producers. Previously he spent around 10 years in the European banking industry as a corporate credit analyst with Commerzbank and ING in Germany and the UK. Matthias Hellstern has graduated from the University of Augsburg in Germany with a degree in Business Administration (Diplom-Kaufmann). |
| Olivier Chemla is a Vice President – Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. Based in Frankfurt, he is the lead analyst for a portfolio of European sovereigns and multilateral institutions. Prior to joining Moody’s in 2018, Olivier served as Chief economist in the French business association for large companies (Afep) for six years. Olivier started his career in the French public administration, holding various positions in the French department for Labour, Health and Economics. He was appointed Special Adviser to the Minister for the Budget, Public accounts and the State reform in the summer of 2011. |
| Maria Gillholm is a Vice President -Senior Credit Officer in the Corporate Finance team and has worked with Moody’s in Sweden since March 2017. She is the lead analyst for Nordic real estate issuers. Maria has 22 years experience of corporate credit ratings and financial analysis but overall 26 years of work experience. Before joining Moody’s, she was a Senior Credit Analyst at Swedbank, where she managed a Swedish/Finnish real estate portfolio of more than 20 companies. She has also held credit analyst positions at Standard & Poor’s, Danske Bank and Swedish Export Guarantees Board. Maria has covered several industries, but has predominantly dealt with companies in the real estate sector. She holds a Master of Science degree in Business Administration and Economics from Lunds University, Sweden. |
Marie Elvesol is the global Head of Investor Management and part of the Commercial team, and also Country Manager and Director of the Nordic subsidiary, Moody’s Ratings (Nordics AB). Marie leads a team of senior professionals focused on deepening our relationships with senior investors around the world. Marie drives strategic alignment and collaboration with Ratings & Research and Global Strategy & Research with the goal of nurturing and growing our strategic investor relationships, diversifying our sphere of influence and expanding our investor footprint and market voice.
Marie joined MIS Commercial in 2016 and was instrumental in setting up our office in Stockholm, Sweden. Combined with her Country Manager role, she previously served as Sub Regional Head for the Nordics in the EMEA Relationship Management team and have held leadership positions with Nasdaq and Nordic banks with experience from working closely with issuers and capital market stakeholders through her roles during her career. As a seasoned manager, Marie has proven experience in leading diverse teams and working with multiple stakeholders in global organisations.
Marie has been an ambassador in CSR initiatives and she has worked in was selected as a member in Moody’s FinTech and Innovation Programme with Cornell University. Marie holds an Executive MBA in Management, Strategy and Finance.
- Head of Analysis, Catella Property Fund Investment 2022–
- Head of Analysis at Catella Corporate Finance 2015–2022. Responsible for macroeconomic analysis on the Swedish real estate market.
- Chief economist at Newsec during 2012–2014
- Various positions at Stångåstaden and Newsec 2005–2012.
Eero Sihvonen is the Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Citycon Oyj - a leading Nordic owner, manager and developer of mixed-use centres for urban living including retail, office space and housing.
2005 - current, based in Stockholm since 2018. Earlier senior finance roles at Neste Oy and Dynea Oy.
| Maria Gillholm is a Vice President -Senior Credit Officer in the Corporate Finance team and has worked with Moody’s in Sweden since March 2017. She is the lead analyst for Nordic real estate issuers. Maria has 22 years experience of corporate credit ratings and financial analysis but overall 26 years of work experience. Before joining Moody’s, she was a Senior Credit Analyst at Swedbank, where she managed a Swedish/Finnish real estate portfolio of more than 20 companies. She has also held credit analyst positions at Standard & Poor’s, Danske Bank and Swedish Export Guarantees Board. Maria has covered several industries, but has predominantly dealt with companies in the real estate sector. She holds a Master of Science degree in Business Administration and Economics from Lunds University, Sweden. |
| Maria Gillholm is a Vice President -Senior Credit Officer in the Corporate Finance team and has worked with Moody’s in Sweden since March 2017. She is the lead analyst for Nordic real estate issuers. Maria has 22 years experience of corporate credit ratings and financial analysis but overall 26 years of work experience. Before joining Moody’s, she was a Senior Credit Analyst at Swedbank, where she managed a Swedish/Finnish real estate portfolio of more than 20 companies. She has also held credit analyst positions at Standard & Poor’s, Danske Bank and Swedish Export Guarantees Board. Maria has covered several industries, but has predominantly dealt with companies in the real estate sector. She holds a Master of Science degree in Business Administration and Economics from Lunds University, Sweden. |
EMPLOYMENT
2015-2022 Finansinspektionen (the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority), Director General
2015-2015 KPA Pension, CEO
2010-2014 Ministry of Finance, State Secretary. Responsible for management of state-owned
companies, municipal legislation and finances and the AP pension funds.
2008-2010 Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Stock Exchange, CEO
2007-2008 OMX/Nasdaq OMX, head of interest-bearing products
2005-2007 Brummer & Partners, Fonden Nektar, investment strategist
2003-2005 Swedish National Debt Office, Deputy Director General
1997-2003 Swedish National Debt Office, head of borrowing and head of debt management
1991-1997 JP Bank, interest rate analyst and deputy head of fixed-income trading
1990-1992 Sveriges Riksbank, trader domestic operations and analyst
EDUCATION
1985-1989 Stockholm School of Economics, degree in Economics and Business Administration
1982-1985 Naval academy, reserve officer, operations officer patrol boat
1979-1982 S:t Jacobi Upper Secondary School, Sciences programme
OTHER ROLES
Deputy chair of the European Securities and Markets Authority, ESMA
Chair of IOSCO’s Sustainable Finance Task Force
Chair of the Nordic/Baltic macroprudential policy forum
Board member Swedish Agency for Innovation Systems
Member of KOMET, the Committee for Technological Innovation and Ethics
Fellow of the Royal Society of Naval Sciences
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Married to Susanne Thedéen, three adult children, lives in Mälarhöjden area of Stockhol
Henry Ohlsson took up the post of Deputy Governor of the Riksbank on 12 January 2015 with a term of office of six years. On 2 October 2020, Mr Ohlsson’s mandate as Executive Board member was extended for five years as from 12 January 2021. Mr Ohlsson’s mandate will therefore run until 11 January 2026.
Henry Ohlsson is professor of economics at Uppsala University. Mr Ohlsson has previously been a member of the board of the Swedish Public Employment Service and Chair of the Economic Council of Swedish Industry.
Louis Landeman is Head of Credit Research at Danske Bank Sweden since October 2010, focusing on the corporate bond market. From 2008 to 2010, Louis worked as Head of Global Credit Research at Credit Suisse Private Banking in Zürich, Switzerland. From 2002 to 2008, Louis was Head of Credit Research at SEB Merchant Banking in Stockholm. Prior to this, Louis was an Associate Director at Bear Stearns International in London. From 1996 to 2001, Louis was a Director and senior analyst at Standard & Poor’s, with responsibility for telecom companies and other corporate in Western, Central and Eastern Europe, Israel and South Africa. Louis holds a Degree of Master of Science in Business Studies and Economics from the University of Uppsala.
| Matthias Hellstern, Managing Director, has been with Moody’s Deutschland GmbH in Frankfurt since October 2004. Matthias is Team Leader in the European Corporate Finance Group heading the Frankfurt-based analytical team focusing on manufacturing industries. The principal industries covered by his team include Auto, Capital Goods, Paper and Packaging, and Building Materials. He is also managing teams in London and Stockholm that are covering the Real Estate, Shipping and Airlines sectors. Prior to his appointment as Team Leader, Matthias was Moody’s lead analyst for European building materials companies and steel producers. Previously he spent around 10 years in the European banking industry as a corporate credit analyst with Commerzbank and ING in Germany and the UK. Matthias Hellstern has graduated from the University of Augsburg in Germany with a degree in Business Administration (Diplom-Kaufmann). |