Moody's Analytics & Raymond James in Conversation: CRE Market
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With global upheaval from tightening monetary policy, rising interest rates, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, the world of commercial real estate is now more than ever characterized by have’s and have not’s. Transactions and pricing trends seem to be in limbo as expectations about funding costs vary between buyers, sellers, and other players in capital markets. Income drivers like rents and vacancies appear to still be going strong – at least for some property types – but are we just waiting for the next shoe to fall? And what are our expectations about a recession occurring in the near term?
Join us for an interactive discussion about places, property types, space markets, capital markets, and all things CRE and the economy. As usual, John Toohig of Raymond James will keep it real and ask Moody’s Analytics’s Head of CRE Economics Victor Calanog, what’s really going on, what’s likely to happen, and whether or not we should be worried – or remain somewhat optimistic – about 2023.
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SpeakersVictor Calanog Head of CRE Economics Moody's Analytics
John Toohig Head of Whole Loan Trading Raymond James
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Victor Calanog is Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics for Moody’s Analytics. Prior to the acquisition by Moody’s Analytics in October 2018, he served as Chief Economist & Senior Vice President of REIS, leading a team of economists and analysts to build, maintain, and customize the firm’s market forecasting, valuation, and real estate portfolio analytics and advisory services.
Dr. Calanog’s research has received awards and fellowship support from several institutions, including the Ford Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation and the Penn Lauder Center for International Business Research.
A prodigious researcher with broad interests, his papers in real estate economics, local government competition, and urban fiscal policy have been presented in meetings of the American Economic Association, the American Finance Association, the Brookings Institution, and discussed in academic forums sponsored by Harvard Business School, Columbia University, Stanford University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and the Stern School of Business at New York University.
He serves as contributor and peer reviewer for several academic journals, with scientific papers published in the Journal of Banking & Finance, the Journal of the Risk Management Association, and cited in the Journal of Finance, Journal of Public Economics, the World Bank Research Observer, the Brookings Papers on Urban Affairs and Public Administration Review. His assessments of market conditions have appeared in national publications like the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, and Reuters News. Dr. Calanog writes several columns on commercial real estate for the National Real Estate Investor and Scotsman Guide. His industry columns have won honors from the American Society of Business Publication Editors and the Risk Management Association.
He serves on the Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Board of Governors for the Mortgage Bankers Association, as Managing Editor for the CRE Finance Council, and on the Editorial Advisory Board of Real Assets Adviser. He serves on the Board of Directors of the Counselors of Real Estate®(CRE) and is a Fellow of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (FRICS).
Dr. Calanog holds a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science, trained by a dissertation committee composed of faculty from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard Business School. In addition, he has an MBA in Finance and an MA in Business and Public Policy, earning the Amy Morse Prize and the Thomas P. Gerrity Leadership Award as the most distinguished PhD and MBA student in his class.
In a previous life, Dr. Calanog was a competitive powerlifter, but he now measures poundage's by how much laundry he does per day. He serves at the behest of Christine, his wife of over twenty years, daughters Samantha and Madison, guinea pigs Midnight and Kale, and puppy Ginger. He enjoys traveling, pestering locals in their own language, and studying geopolitics, history, art, military strategy–and mecha anime.
John Toohig is a Managing Director at Raymond James, a Board Member and President of Raymond James Mortgage Company, Inc and Head of the Whole Loan Group.
John joined Raymond James (formerly Morgan Keegan) in September of 2006. As manager of the Whole Loan Group, John’s primary responsibilities include day-to-day trading of whole loan packages, portfolio analysis, transaction management and the structuring of whole loan, participation and various structured products. John’s product focus encompasses both seasoned and new production: residential mortgages (both QM and Non-QM), commercial mortgages, consumer lending, fintech lending, scratch and dent loans, and non-performing assets. Prior to joining the Whole Loan group at Raymond James, John was a part of the firm’s Taxable Banking platform where he was responsible for corporate debt transactions, trust preferred securities, sale leaseback transactions and ABS transactions.
Beyond his daily trading responsibilities, John is a regular speaker and content creator for various lending-related conferences and publications. He has presented at most of the major lending conferences including MBA National Secondary, SFIG Vegas / ABS West, CUNA Lending and more, and his commentary has also been featured in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, HousingWire and DebtWire. In 2020, John contributed a chapter to “The CECL Handbook A Practitioner’s Guide” entitled “Data Collision: Efficient Lending Under CECL” which dives deep into the impact of the new accounting regulation’s impact on lending. John has created an active following on LinkedIn with regular posts and articles surrounding community lending, providing both lenders and investors with timely commentary on current trends and happenings in the primary and secondary loan markets. In addition, he showcases new lending products, technology, and credit tools as the market constantly evolves.
Mr. Toohig received his undergraduate degree from the Houghton College and his MBA from the University of Mississippi with a focus in finance and IT. John has his Series 7, 24 and Series 63 licenses. His community involvement includes currently serving as Member of the Board of Trustees for St. Agnes Academy / St. Dominic School. He is also a former chairman for both the Lafayette and DeSoto county American Cancer Society Relay for Life events and the former president of the Ole Miss MBA Alumni Board. John resides in Memphis, TN with his wife Sha, and his two daughters, Helen Grace and Cressey, while he works in Raymond James’ east Memphis branch.