Negative outlook on Italy’s Baa3 rating – drivers and next steps
Moody’s has changed the outlook on Italy’s ratings to negative from stable, based on an accumulation of risks that relate to domestic political developments as well as the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- What are the key drivers of Italy’s negative rating outlook
- What role do the political developments and the upcoming early elections play?
- How exposed is Italy to energy supply challenges that relate to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
- What are the specific risks to Italy’s fiscal strength, and what’s the impact of the medium-term growth prospects?
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SpeakersSarah Carlson Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
Alejandro Olivo Villa Managing Director, Sovereign/Sub-Sovereign Moody's Investors Service
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Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
Alejandro Olivo heads the Sovereign Risk Group for the Americas and Europe. He is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 323 issuers in those regions. Prior to his current role, Alejandro managed the teams covering project and infrastructure issuers across Latin America and Canada.
Before joining Moody´s, Alejandro held a number of senior positions at both the government and the private sector. In the public sector, Alejandro served as CFO of Financiera Rural, Mexico´s rural development bank, Deputy Director at Banobras and Treasurer of the Government of Mexico City. In the private sector, Alejandro worked for Société Générale as a Senior Relationship Banker covering Latin American clients from New York and, prior to that, as the bank´s Risk Economist for Latin America based in Paris.
Alejandro holds an MA from Johns Hopkins University and a BA from Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM).