EM Spotlight: Credit impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict in Emerging Europe, CIS and LATAM
Join us for a live, interactive Q&A panel discussion where Moody’s economists and credit analysts discuss the impact the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have in EMs macroeconomic and financial outlook, and what credit impact we can expect in sovereigns and corporates across Emerging Europe, CIS and LATAM.
- How has the invasion changed our macroeconomic outlook for Emerging Markets? Do we expect financial conditions to deteriorate sharply?
- What are the main channels of transmission of the crisis to Emerging Europe and CIS? How isolated is LATAM from the impact?
- Which European and CIS countries are most vulnerable to a sudden crystallization of geopolitical risks?
- For LATAM, will inflation hurt consumption, GDP growth and profits, negating the benefits from higher commodity prices?
- Which corporate sectors are better positioned to withstand, or even benefit, from the shock?
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SpeakersAriane Ortiz-Bollin Vice President – Senior Credit Officer - CS&R Moody's Investors Service
Elena Duggar Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, Managing Director - Chief Credit Officer Americas Moody's Investors Service
Kelvin Dalrymple VP-Senior Credit Officer Moody’s Investors Service
Mauro Leos Associate Managing Director Moody’s Investors Service
Dietmar Hornung Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Investors Service
Gersan Zurita SVP CSS Strategy Moody's Investors Service
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Ariane Ortiz-Bollin is part of the Credit Strategy and Research group at Moody’s Investors Service. As part of the Global Emerging Markets team, Ariane is responsible for generating house views, decision enabling insights and research that leverage the thought leadership of Moody’s emerging market analysts around the world. Ariane leads the implementation of Moody’s emerging markets outreach and thought leadership strategy, collaborating closely with multiple teams across the company to employ the latest content delivery solutions and ensuring that Moody’s research serves the analytic needs of our customers and stakeholders.
Before this, Ariane spent a decade as a sovereign analyst, managing a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Mexico, Chile and the International Finance Corporation, leading the internal rating committee discussions for her portfolio of credits, country and region-specific publications, and meetings with government officials. A sought after spokesperson for Moody’s, Ariane’s expertise nurtures internal and external stakeholder relationships, ensuring our views are heard and add value. Ariane has also led several high impact analytic and data systems projects for the Sovereign group, partnering with several teams across Moody’s.
Before joining Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in 2011, Ariane was a research analyst at the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University, prior to which she was a corporate credit analyst in Citi-Banamex in Mexico. Ariane graduated with Honors in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) and has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University.
Elena Duggar is Moody’s Chief Credit Officer for the Americas, and a Managing Director in the Credit Strategy & Research team. Elena is also the Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, which sets the global macroeconomic forecasts underpinning Moody’s universe of ratings.
In her role leading the North and Latin America Credit Strategy & Research teams and the Global Macroeconomic Research team, Elena is responsible for forming house views on emerging risks, driving cross-functional alignment on key credit factors, coordinating rating approach across sectors in the Americas, and maintaining rigor in analytic frameworks.
Elena leads major cross-sector outreach and research initiatives, such as Moody’s Global Credit Conditions Outlook, Global Macroeconomic Outlook, Debt after COVID and Global Trade Monitor, along with thematic research on macro, sovereign, demographics and financial risk topics. Elena represents Moody’s at the IIF Committee for Sovereign Risk Management and the IIF Principles Consultative Group for the Principles for Stable Capital Flows and Fair Debt Restructuring.
Elena has served as Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board since 2016 and prior to that served as Moody’s Group Credit Officer for Sovereign Risk, covering the global sovereign ratings portfolio. She is a globally-recognized expert on sovereign defaults and the author of market leading sovereign credit research, including Moody’s Sovereign Defaults series. For example, her research on the role of holdouts in sovereign debt restructurings was cited as expert evidence in the landmark 2015 US Supreme Court case on Argentina. Elena regularly represents Moody’s macro and credit views with external audiences, including senior policymakers, international organizations such as the UN, IMF and IIF, think tanks, academia, regulators and investors. Elena’s research is frequently cited in the WSJ, the FT, Bloomberg, Reuters and leading financial media.
Elena joined Moody’s in 2007 and previously was an Economist at the IMF. She holds a B.A. in Economics from Bates College and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Kelvin Dalrymple is Vice President – Senior Credit Officer in the Credit Strategy and Research (CS&R) team based in London.
He chairs the EMEA Research Council and drives cross-sector and thought-leading research in EMEA focused and aligned to rating priorities, and on Moody’s Credit Themes. In addition, he supports the broader work of the CS&R global team, and in particular the Chief Credit Officer for EMEA.
He has significant macroeconomics and public policy experience, having previously worked in senior roles with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group, the Caribbean Development Bank, the Government of Barbados, and the Central bank of Barbados.
Kelvin has economic degrees from University of the West Indies, and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He was a Fulbright Scholar, and is currently a Fellow with the UK Chartered Governance Institute.
He is passionate about Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, and is a member of Moody’s UK Multicultural Business Resource Group and was one of its co-Chairs from 2020-2022. He is also active in the EMEA Black Impact BRG.
Dietmar Hornung, Associate Managing Director, leads the Sovereign Risk Group’s European team, covering the European countries and the European supranationals. Prior to his appointment as team leader, Dietmar was Moody’s lead analyst on a number of European sovereign credits, including Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Russia, EU, EFSF and ESM.
Before joining Moody’s in 2007, Dietmar was Head of Emerging Market Research for DekaBank in Frankfurt.
Dietmar holds a Doctorate summa cum laude in Economics from Otto-von-Guericke University in Magdeburg. He received a Masters degree from Christian-Albrechts University in Kiel after studies in Kiel, at the University of Miami, and at the Eberhard-Karls University in Tübingen.
Dietmar is a Certified EFFAS Financial Analyst (CEFA).
Gersan Zurita is a Senior Vice President – Group Credit Officer at Moody’s InvestorsService, managing the development and implementation of credit policy in LatinAmerica. Gersan’s 25-year career in credit analysis and corporate banking encompasses a broad geography and wide scope of asset classes, including StructuredFinance as well as sovereign and sub- sovereign finance in the emerging markets, corporate finance in the US and infrastructure and project finance globally.
Prior to Moody’s, Gersan was with MBIA where he led the credit analysis for the team focused on transactions in Latin America. This includes the development of a new program, in collaboration with the IFC, to enhance the creditworthiness of project bonds issued in the local capital markets of Chile, Colombia and Peru.
Prior to MBIA, Gersan was 11 years with Fitch serving in various capacities, more recently in the Global Infrastructure and Project Finance Group
and member of the corporate finance credit policy committee. Gersan’s corporate banking career began at UBS in New York, where he structured loans and other credit facilities for electric utilities and other public service entities in the US.
Gersan received a M.S. from the School of Architecture at Pratt Institute and an MBA in Finance from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.