Credit trends as Canada and the provinces navigate a slowing economy
After seeing credit positive developments in 2022, principally from higher tax revenues and a strong economy, Canada and the provinces face a different landscape in 2023. A slowing economy, increased spending on social pressures and emerging concerns on the global banking sector will be challenges for 2023.
This webinar discussed how the following impact our credit views of Canada and the provinces:
- Economic forecast and balance of risks for the resource-rich economy
- Sustainability of revenues following very strong growth in 2022-23
- Drivers of spending pressures as affordability concerns remain top of mind
- Forecast of the debt and interest burdens as financing needs fall but interest rates remain high
- Ability of government finances to withstand new shocks as they emerge
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SpeakersMichael Yake Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Ratings
William Foster Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Adam Hardi Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sub-Sovereign Moody's Ratings
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Michael Yake is Associate Managing Director in the Sub-Sovereign Group for Moody’s Investors Service (MIS). Based in Toronto, Michael leads the team of analysts for the Canadian Sub-Sovereign portfolio which covers provinces, municipalities and a wide selection of government related issuers in Canada. He is also a co-manager of the non-US portfolio of Moody’s Global Higher Education group which includes institutions in Canada, Singapore, Australia and the United Kingdom. He joined Moody’s in 2011.
Michael also assumed the role of MIS Country Manager for Canada in 2022,overseeing MIS’s activities in the country and acting as senior point of contact to issuers and other market participants.
Michael has a broad background in public policy, finance and economics. Prior to joining Moody’s, he was a Senior Economist with the Bank of Canada in their Quebec regional office. He has also held various positions with other federal government departments.
Michael holds an M.A. in economics from Queen’s University and a B.A. in economics from the University of Western Ontario.
| William (Bill) Foster is a Vice President-Senior Credit Officer in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in New York, where he serves as lead analyst on the United States, Canada, India, and World Bank Group credits. Bill joined Moody’s in August 2016, following 10 years at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He most recently served as Senior Advisor for International Financial Markets based in New York, where he was the Office of International Affairs’ first dedicated liaison to New York’s international financial community. From August 2012 to March 2015, he served as the U.S. Financial Attaché to India at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi, where he represented the U.S. Government as its primary economic expert and financial diplomat in India. Bill joined Treasury’s Office of International Affairs as an international economist in 2006, and covered a wide range of geographies during his tenure, including Latin America, South and East Asia. Prior to joining Treasury, he worked as a management consultant at Accenture. Bill holds a Master of International Affairs degree in International Financial and Economic Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) and a BA from Wesleyan University. He is a member of The Economic Club of New York and an Industry Advisory Board Member for Columbia Business School’s India Business Initiative. |
Adam Hardi is a Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sub-Sovereign group in Toronto. Adam is one of two lead analysts responsible for the portfolio of Canadian regional and local governments, including the provinces, as well as government related issuers in Canada.
Adam joined Moody’s in 2015. He had previously spent over a decade at Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto Dominion Bank, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, in Toronto and Vancouver. He held various credit and trading roles in sub-sovereign and financial institutions credit risk analysis and credit risk policy, as well as institutional equity and derivatives trading.
Adam holds an MBA from the University of Toronto (Rotman) and a BA in Economics from the University of Manitoba. Adam is also a CFA charter holder and has been teaching the CFA curriculum since 2008.ess.