2023 Outlook for US States and Local Governments
Stable 2023 outlook for US states and local governments despite tighter macro conditions and slower tax revenue growth
The outlook for US states and local governments is stable for 2023, despite tighter expected macro conditions leading to slower tax revenue growth. Analysts discuss the effects of inflation, higher interest rates, risks to the economy, and offsetting governance and financial strengths.
- Expectations for state and local revenue growth
- Managing inflationary pressure on wages and capital costs
- Risks and opportunities from higher interest rates
- Environmental, social, and cyber-security challenges
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SpeakersRachel Cortez Associate Managing Director, US Public Finance Moody's Ratings
Timothy Blake Managing Director, Public Finance Group Moody's Ratings
Nick Samuels SVP - Senior Credit Officer, States and High Profile Ratings Team Moody's Ratings
Dan Kowalski Analyst Moody’s Investors Service
Christopher Yared Lead Analyst Moody's Investors Service
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Rachel Cortez is an Associate Managing Director with the US Public Finance Group of Moody’s Investors Service. As the manager of Moody’s Chicago-based analytical team, Rachel oversees local government credits in ten Midwest states. She has extensive experience covering tax-backed and revenue-secured credits issued by US local governments and not-for-profit health care organizations.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2005, Rachel spent five years with American Management Systems (now CGI Group), where she implemented budget and financial management systems for state and local governments. She was also a budget analyst with the State of Illinois Bureau of the Budget (now Office of Management and Budget) and spent several years working in development and fundraising for a Chicago not-for-profit organization.
Rachel is a former President of the Chicago Municipal Analysts Society (CMAS) and served on the Board of Governors of the National Federation of Municipal Analysts (NFMA). Rachel received an MPA from the Maxwell School of Syracuse University and a BA in Government from Cornell University.
Tim Blake is a Managing Director in Moody’s Public Finance Group responsible for US state ratings as well as local government ratings in the Eastern region. He also oversees ratings for US transit systems and a specialist team on government pension analysis. Tim has thirty years of experience in the municipal market.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Tim was a credit risk manager and ratings advisor at Goldman Sachs, and a credit and liquidity facility specialist at NatWest Markets.
He is a graduate of the State University of New York at Albany.
Nick Samuels is a Senior Vice President for the States and High Profile Ratings Team covering credits for the state of Texas, New York City, and the District of Columbia.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Nick worked for the National Association of State Budget Officers analyzing state fiscal and expenditure trends. Nick holds a BA degree in government from Skidmore College and a Master’s in Public Administration from the George Washington University.
Dan Kowalski is an Analyst on the State Ratings Team, covering credits for the states of Georgia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Mississippi and New Hampshire as well as mass transit and federal lease credits. Dan was previously an analyst on the Chicago Local Governments Team.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Dan worked in prison education for the State of New Jersey. Dan holds a BA in Politics from Princeton University and an MPP in Municipal Finance and Economic Policy from the University of Chicago Harris School.
Christopher Yared is an Analyst for the New York Local Governments Ratings Team covering credits primarily in New York and New England. Prior to joining the New York Local Governments Ratings Team, Chris worked for the Project and Infrastructure Finance Group where he covered a wide range of credits with a concentration in renewable energy projects.
Chris holds a Masters in Finance from Villanova University and a BS in Economics and a BA in Finance from the University of Kentucky.