Looking to the Economic Long-Run

An in-person conference in Irvine, California

About


The economic landscape has adeptly maneuvered past a phase marked by unprecedented inflation and soaring interest rates without succumbing to a downturn. Its sustained success over the long term hinges on a variety of factors such as demographic shifts, advancements in productivity, the effects of deglobalization, and electoral outcomes. However, the stability of the economy is continuously at risk from various potential disruptions, which could include geopolitical tensions or volatile property markets.

We are heading to Irvine to delve into these topics. Chief Economist Mark Zandi, along with a team of economists from Moody's Analytics, will be there to share their expertise and engage directly with your inquiries.

Agenda

08.30 - 09.00
PDT

Registration Check-In

09.00 - 09.15
PDT

Welcome Address

09.15 - 10.15
PDT

Optimism Amid Uncertainty

The economy has successfully navigated around surging inflation and interest rates and avoided a recession. This session considers the reasons for the economy’s resilience and what this suggests for the economy’s prospects. Challenges remain of course, and those will also be taken up in this presentation.

10.15 - 11.00
PDT

Surfing the Immigration Wave

Demographics are destiny. With foreign immigration surging and domestic migration patterns scrambled by the pandemic, this truism is as relevant as ever. We examine the magnitude of recent changes and consider their importance to the national and regional economies.

11.00
PDT

Break

11.30 - 12.15
PDT

Piecing Together the Productivity Puzzle

Productivity growth has recently enjoyed something of a revival. Is this a one-time bounce or the start of a sustained trend? Artificial intelligence and remote work hold significant promise, but are the promises being realized?  What’s the role of entrepreneurship, immigration and aging in driving productivity gains? Answers to these question are critical to the prospects for living standards, stock and house prices, and the nation’s finances.

12.15 - 13.15
PDT

Lunch

13.15 - 14.15
PDT

Deciphering Real Estate’s Uncertain Outlook

Residential and commercial real estate markets are dislocated.  The housing market is struggling with an unprecedented shortage of affordable homes to rent or own, putting homeownership out of reach for most renters as house prices grow faster than incomes. Most existing homeowners are effectively locked into their homes with a mortgage rate that is well below market rates. CRE property investors are struggling with their own set of challenges including the high cost of capital and lower demand for office space.  With nearly $1 trillion of commercial mortgages coming due in 2024, default risks are high as property prices come under pressure.   This session explores how and when both the housing and CRE markets will find a new equilibrium.

14.15 - 15.00
PDT

Geopolitical Hot Spots Heat Up

Global hotspots are heating up and threaten to boil over. The relationship between the U.S. and China is vexed, the Russian-Ukraine war is gridlocked, and the Israel-Hamas conflict is spinning out of control. With deglobalization in full-swing, more hotspots are sure to emerge. This session considers how the global economy is fracturing and the implications.

15.00 - 15.15
PDT

Break

15.15 - 16.00
PDT

Harris vs. Trump

Elections have consequences, and no more so than the 2024 election. Each presidential candidate will have fundamentally different policy agendas and visions for the economy. We handicap the race for the Presidency and control of Congress and assess the macroeconomic impact of each candidates’ policy positions proposed on the campaign trail.

16.00 - 16.45
PDT

Fireside Chat with Mark Zandi & Jared Franz

Mark Zandi and Jared Franz, will engage in an in-depth conversation on the economy’s performance and the fiscal outlook post-election.

16.45 - 17.30
PDT

Reception

Speakers

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Mark Zandi Chief Economist Moody's Analytics Bio
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Cris deRitis Deputy Chief Economist Moody's Analytics Bio
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Brendan La Cerda Director - Economic Research Moody's Analytics Bio
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Steve Cochrane Chief APAC Economist Moody's Bio
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Marisa DiNatale Senior Director - Economic Research Moody's Analytics Bio
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Dante DeAntonio Senior Director-Economic Research Moody's Bio
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Adam Kamins Senior Regional Economist Moody's Analytics Bio
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Eric Gaus Senior Economist Moody's Analytics Bio
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Justin Begley Economist Moody's Analytics Bio
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Jared Franz Economist Capital Group Bio
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Ernesto Lopez SVP - Chief Appraiser East West Bank Bio
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John Hope Assistant Vice President of Lending Provident Credit Union Bio
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Venue Details:

Venue Name: Hilton Irvine/Orange County

Address: 18800 MacArthur Blvd, Irvine, CA 92612


Contact Us
If you have any questions please contact Raji Kaur