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Agenda10:05 - 10:15EDT
Latin America’s macroeconomic and sovereign outlook in 2024
Join Renzo Merino and Ariane Ortiz-Bollin as they discuss Moody’s macroeconomic forecasts for Latin America and share their analysis on key sovereign credit challenges.
Topics for discussion:
- Regional economic growth prospects
- Political scenarios and credit implications amid pivotal elections in US and Latin America
- Prospects for monetary easing in Latin America and its implications for financial conditions
- Limited fiscal space and debt trends
10:15 - 10:55EDTSustaining higher risk adjusted returns in the face of shifting regional credit trends
Join Cristiane Spercel for a dialogue with prominent CIOs to gain insights on the current strategy focus for EM debt and portfolio allocation in Latin America.
Topics for discussion:
- Investor sentiment towards EM debt market.
- Where are the opportunities for Latin America credit in a fragmented geopolitical environment
- How global interest rates moves and political events will impact portfolio allocation in 2024
- Risk-return on investments related to energy transition
- How GenAI and technology advancements are reshaping the investment decisions
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SpeakersMarianna Waltz Managing Director - Head of LatAm Ratings and Research Moody's Ratings
Xavier Vegas Head of Global Credit Strategy Global Wealth Management, J.P.Morgan
Melvin Escudero President, El Dorado Investments & Director, CFA Society PeruAriane Ortiz-Bollin Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy & Research Moody's Ratings
Renzo Merino Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Moody’s Ratings
Cristiane Spercel Head of Projects & Infrastructure, Latin America Moody's Ratings
Celina Apóstolo Merrill Managing Director and Portfolio Manager - Emerging Markets Corporate Debt BlackRock
Alejo Czerwonko Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer - Emerging Markets Americas UBS Global Wealth Management
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Alejo is Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer Emerging Markets Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, based in New York.
In this capacity, Alejo leads a team of analysts focusing on emerging economies, influencing the allocation of billions of dollars of the firm's assets under management. As a member of two management forums at UBS, he helps set the strategic direction of the business.
Alejo is also a professor at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs, where he teaches on capital markets in developing economies.
Outside of business and academia, Alejo helps shape the policy debate impacting emerging markets through his involvement with leading global think tanks. He has been named Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. He is also a member of the Advisory Board of the Wilson Center's Latin America Program and a Millennium Leadership Fellow by the Atlantic Council.
He frequently appears on Bloomberg Television, CNBC, and CNN, and regularly contributes to financial publications including the Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal.
Alejo earned a PhD in economics from Columbia University. He also holds degrees in economics and finance from Tilburg University and Universidad del CEMA.
Celina Apóstolo Merrill, is Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for BlackRock focusing on Emerging Market Corporate Debt. Ms. Apóstolo Merrill manages and oversees the allocation of EM Corporate Credit investments across BlackRock’s actively managed fixed income portfolios.
After beginning her career in investment banking at Goldman Sachs, Celina moved on to focus on distressed investing in the United States and Latin America within funds at Goldman Sachs and Texas Pacific Group (TPG). Since 2010 she has focused on investing in Emerging Markets across the spectrum of fixed income instruments, spanning the range of Investment Grade, High Yield and Distressed securities.
Prior to BlackRock, she worked at JP Morgan Asset Management. Born and raised in El Salvador, Celina received a B.A. in Economics and a B.A.in International Relations from Yale University and an M.B.A. from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Xavier Vegas serves as the Head of Global Credit Strategy for Global Wealth
Management. In his role, he leads the development of the Private Bank’s global
credit views as well as security level credit investments in Investment Grade,
High Yield, Emerging Markets and Municipal credit, providing investment
solutions for Global Wealth Management clients. Mr. Vegas has a leadership role
in GWM’s investment committee.
Mr. Vegas has extensive experience in the financial industry. Before joining J.P.
Morgan, he served as Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager for Credit and
Equities investments at BlueMountain Capital Management.
Previously, Mr. Vegas worked as an Emerging Markets Distressed Debt Analyst for
Contrarian Capital Management, covering Latin America sovereign and
corporate investments. Prior to that, he worked in the Financial Institution and
Governments Group at J.P. Morgan Investment Bank advising financial
institutions in mergers and acquisitions and capital raising transactions.
Mr. Vegas earned his MBA from the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University
with a specialization in Corporate Finance and Decision Sciences. Before getting
his MBA, he worked as Treasury Manager at Vencred and as Head Trader at
Activalores.
Mr. Vegas got his Bachelor's Degree from Universidad Metropolitana in
Venezuela, his native country. He currently lives in Westport, Connecticut, with
his wife and three children.
Marianna Waltz is a Managing Director at Moody’s Investors Service and has joined the company in 2011. She currently runs Moody’s ratings teams in Latin America, including the Corporate Finance, Infrastructure, Banking and Sub-Sovereign groups across more than 15 countries. She is responsible for the development of MIS ratings and research opinions for the region’s fundamental ratings groups, and the delivery of services to issuers and market participants. Prior to assuming this role in January 2021, Marianna was the Managing Director responsible for Moody’s Corporate Finance team in Latin America. Marianna is also a member of the Board of Directors of Moody’s Local, an affiliate of Moody’s in Peru, Panamá, Bolivia, Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil. Prior to joining Moody’s, Marianna developed a career as an equity sell side analyst covering mostly the Brazilian Consumer and Protein sectors. From 2008 to 2011, she was the head of sell-side equity research in the investment arm of Banco do Brasil in Sao Paulo. Marianna is a CFA charter holder and holds three master’s degrees, including an MBA in Finance from IBMEC Business School and an MBA in Marketing from Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV.
Ariane leads cross-sector analytic initiatives, strategic research and outreach covering Latin America. She chairs our Latin America Credit Council and works on credit strategy with senior leaders of Ratings & Research and other Credit Strategy & Standards functions within Moody’s. She is tasked with ensuring global analytical consistency with other regional credit strategy functions and foster collaboration across analytical teams.
Before her current role, Ariane was part of the Global Emerging Markets team, responsible for generating house views and research, and hosted Moody’s Emerging Markets Decoded podcast.
Ariane spent a decade as a sovereign analyst, managing a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Mexico, Chile and the International Finance Corporation, leading the internal rating committee discussions for her portfolio of credits, country and region-specific publications, and meetings with government officials.
Before joining Moody’s in 2011, Ariane was a research analyst at the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University, prior to which she was a corporate credit analyst in Citi- Banamex in Mexico.
Ariane graduated with Honors in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) and has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University.
Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y analista sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Ratings. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.
Cristiane is a Senior Vice President/Manager, based in Sao Paulo with management responsibility for the rating agency coverage of project finance, infrastructure and sub sovereign credits across Latin America. In her role, she oversees a team of analysts covering those sectors, developing research on sector trends and conducting outreach activities with key market participants. Cristiane has over fifteen years of experience in the financial services industry. Since she joined the firm in January 2007, Cristiane covered several infrastructure credits in the transportation, sanitation and electricity sectors and project finance transactions. Cristiane has also worked as a senior analyst with Moody's corporate finance team covering high yield and financially distressed issuers in the real estate, construction and transportation sectors until 2016.Before joining Moody's, Cristiane developed credit analysis at West lB and fixed income portfolio management activities at Bank Boston. Cristiane holds a Master's degree in Finance from the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College, a Bachelor's degree in Business Administration and a MBA in Real Estate from the University of Sao Paulo.
Alejo is Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer Emerging Markets Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, based in New York.
In this capacity, Alejo leads a team of analysts focusing on emerging economies, influencing the allocation of billions of dollars of the firm's assets under management. As a member of two management forums at UBS, he helps set the strategic direction of the business.
Alejo is also a professor at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs, where he teaches on capital markets in developing economies.
Outside of business and academia, Alejo helps shape the policy debate impacting emerging markets through his involvement with leading global think tanks. He has been named Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. He is also a member of the Advisory Board of the Wilson Center's Latin America Program and a Millennium Leadership Fellow by the Atlantic Council.
He frequently appears on Bloomberg Television, CNBC, and CNN, and regularly contributes to financial publications including the Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal.
Alejo earned a PhD in economics from Columbia University. He also holds degrees in economics and finance from Tilburg University and Universidad del CEMA.
Celina Apóstolo Merrill, is Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for BlackRock focusing on Emerging Market Corporate Debt. Ms. Apóstolo Merrill manages and oversees the allocation of EM Corporate Credit investments across BlackRock’s actively managed fixed income portfolios.
After beginning her career in investment banking at Goldman Sachs, Celina moved on to focus on distressed investing in the United States and Latin America within funds at Goldman Sachs and Texas Pacific Group (TPG). Since 2010 she has focused on investing in Emerging Markets across the spectrum of fixed income instruments, spanning the range of Investment Grade, High Yield and Distressed securities.
Prior to BlackRock, she worked at JP Morgan Asset Management. Born and raised in El Salvador, Celina received a B.A. in Economics and a B.A.in International Relations from Yale University and an M.B.A. from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Xavier Vegas serves as the Head of Global Credit Strategy for Global Wealth
Management. In his role, he leads the development of the Private Bank’s global
credit views as well as security level credit investments in Investment Grade,
High Yield, Emerging Markets and Municipal credit, providing investment
solutions for Global Wealth Management clients. Mr. Vegas has a leadership role
in GWM’s investment committee.
Mr. Vegas has extensive experience in the financial industry. Before joining J.P.
Morgan, he served as Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager for Credit and
Equities investments at BlueMountain Capital Management.
Previously, Mr. Vegas worked as an Emerging Markets Distressed Debt Analyst for
Contrarian Capital Management, covering Latin America sovereign and
corporate investments. Prior to that, he worked in the Financial Institution and
Governments Group at J.P. Morgan Investment Bank advising financial
institutions in mergers and acquisitions and capital raising transactions.
Mr. Vegas earned his MBA from the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University
with a specialization in Corporate Finance and Decision Sciences. Before getting
his MBA, he worked as Treasury Manager at Vencred and as Head Trader at
Activalores.
Mr. Vegas got his Bachelor's Degree from Universidad Metropolitana in
Venezuela, his native country. He currently lives in Westport, Connecticut, with
his wife and three children.
Director del CFA Society Perú, Presidente del Consejo de Advocacy para la Región América Latina y el Caribe, así como CEO en El Dorado Investments.
Fue Intendente de AFP en la SBS con responsabilidad sobre inversiones y registros de instrumentos nuevos (entre 1997 y 2010).
Cuenta con más de 25 años de experiencia en mercados financieros y capital, y ha participado en la estructuración y análisis de más de 2,800 productos financieros por un valor de más de US $ 32 billones en Perú y mercados internacionales.
Es Licenciado en Economía por la Universidad del Pacífico y tiene estudios en inversiones y administración en Harvard, Wharton, Berkeley, entre otros.
Marianna Waltz is a Managing Director at Moody’s Investors Service and has joined the company in 2011. She currently runs Moody’s ratings teams in Latin America, including the Corporate Finance, Infrastructure, Banking and Sub-Sovereign groups across more than 15 countries. She is responsible for the development of MIS ratings and research opinions for the region’s fundamental ratings groups, and the delivery of services to issuers and market participants. Prior to assuming this role in January 2021, Marianna was the Managing Director responsible for Moody’s Corporate Finance team in Latin America. Marianna is also a member of the Board of Directors of Moody’s Local, an affiliate of Moody’s in Peru, Panamá, Bolivia, Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil. Prior to joining Moody’s, Marianna developed a career as an equity sell side analyst covering mostly the Brazilian Consumer and Protein sectors. From 2008 to 2011, she was the head of sell-side equity research in the investment arm of Banco do Brasil in Sao Paulo. Marianna is a CFA charter holder and holds three master’s degrees, including an MBA in Finance from IBMEC Business School and an MBA in Marketing from Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV.
Xavier Vegas serves as the Head of Global Credit Strategy for Global Wealth
Management. In his role, he leads the development of the Private Bank’s global
credit views as well as security level credit investments in Investment Grade,
High Yield, Emerging Markets and Municipal credit, providing investment
solutions for Global Wealth Management clients. Mr. Vegas has a leadership role
in GWM’s investment committee.
Mr. Vegas has extensive experience in the financial industry. Before joining J.P.
Morgan, he served as Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager for Credit and
Equities investments at BlueMountain Capital Management.
Previously, Mr. Vegas worked as an Emerging Markets Distressed Debt Analyst for
Contrarian Capital Management, covering Latin America sovereign and
corporate investments. Prior to that, he worked in the Financial Institution and
Governments Group at J.P. Morgan Investment Bank advising financial
institutions in mergers and acquisitions and capital raising transactions.
Mr. Vegas earned his MBA from the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University
with a specialization in Corporate Finance and Decision Sciences. Before getting
his MBA, he worked as Treasury Manager at Vencred and as Head Trader at
Activalores.
Mr. Vegas got his Bachelor's Degree from Universidad Metropolitana in
Venezuela, his native country. He currently lives in Westport, Connecticut, with
his wife and three children.
Director del CFA Society Perú, Presidente del Consejo de Advocacy para la Región América Latina y el Caribe, así como CEO en El Dorado Investments.
Fue Intendente de AFP en la SBS con responsabilidad sobre inversiones y registros de instrumentos nuevos (entre 1997 y 2010).
Cuenta con más de 25 años de experiencia en mercados financieros y capital, y ha participado en la estructuración y análisis de más de 2,800 productos financieros por un valor de más de US $ 32 billones en Perú y mercados internacionales.
Es Licenciado en Economía por la Universidad del Pacífico y tiene estudios en inversiones y administración en Harvard, Wharton, Berkeley, entre otros.
Ariane leads cross-sector analytic initiatives, strategic research and outreach covering Latin America. She chairs our Latin America Credit Council and works on credit strategy with senior leaders of Ratings & Research and other Credit Strategy & Standards functions within Moody’s. She is tasked with ensuring global analytical consistency with other regional credit strategy functions and foster collaboration across analytical teams.
Before her current role, Ariane was part of the Global Emerging Markets team, responsible for generating house views and research, and hosted Moody’s Emerging Markets Decoded podcast.
Ariane spent a decade as a sovereign analyst, managing a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Mexico, Chile and the International Finance Corporation, leading the internal rating committee discussions for her portfolio of credits, country and region-specific publications, and meetings with government officials.
Before joining Moody’s in 2011, Ariane was a research analyst at the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University, prior to which she was a corporate credit analyst in Citi- Banamex in Mexico.
Ariane graduated with Honors in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) and has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University.
Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y analista sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Ratings. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.
Cristiane is a Senior Vice President/Manager, based in Sao Paulo with management responsibility for the rating agency coverage of project finance, infrastructure and sub sovereign credits across Latin America. In her role, she oversees a team of analysts covering those sectors, developing research on sector trends and conducting outreach activities with key market participants. Cristiane has over fifteen years of experience in the financial services industry. Since she joined the firm in January 2007, Cristiane covered several infrastructure credits in the transportation, sanitation and electricity sectors and project finance transactions. Cristiane has also worked as a senior analyst with Moody's corporate finance team covering high yield and financially distressed issuers in the real estate, construction and transportation sectors until 2016.Before joining Moody's, Cristiane developed credit analysis at West lB and fixed income portfolio management activities at Bank Boston. Cristiane holds a Master's degree in Finance from the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College, a Bachelor's degree in Business Administration and a MBA in Real Estate from the University of Sao Paulo.
Celina Apóstolo Merrill, is Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for BlackRock focusing on Emerging Market Corporate Debt. Ms. Apóstolo Merrill manages and oversees the allocation of EM Corporate Credit investments across BlackRock’s actively managed fixed income portfolios.
After beginning her career in investment banking at Goldman Sachs, Celina moved on to focus on distressed investing in the United States and Latin America within funds at Goldman Sachs and Texas Pacific Group (TPG). Since 2010 she has focused on investing in Emerging Markets across the spectrum of fixed income instruments, spanning the range of Investment Grade, High Yield and Distressed securities.
Prior to BlackRock, she worked at JP Morgan Asset Management. Born and raised in El Salvador, Celina received a B.A. in Economics and a B.A.in International Relations from Yale University and an M.B.A. from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Alejo is Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer Emerging Markets Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, based in New York.
In this capacity, Alejo leads a team of analysts focusing on emerging economies, influencing the allocation of billions of dollars of the firm's assets under management. As a member of two management forums at UBS, he helps set the strategic direction of the business.
Alejo is also a professor at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs, where he teaches on capital markets in developing economies.
Outside of business and academia, Alejo helps shape the policy debate impacting emerging markets through his involvement with leading global think tanks. He has been named Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. He is also a member of the Advisory Board of the Wilson Center's Latin America Program and a Millennium Leadership Fellow by the Atlantic Council.
He frequently appears on Bloomberg Television, CNBC, and CNN, and regularly contributes to financial publications including the Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal.
Alejo earned a PhD in economics from Columbia University. He also holds degrees in economics and finance from Tilburg University and Universidad del CEMA.