2024 Outlooks for US States and Cities & Counties
Tight revenues but stable credit outlooks for states and cities & counties in 2024
The outlooks for US states and cities & counties are stable for 2024, with government financial resilience bolstered by accumulated reserves that mitigate the challenges of slowing revenue growth and expense pressures. Analysts discuss the effects of inflation, higher interest rates, economic uncertainty, offset by governance and financial strengths.
- Expectations for state, cities and county revenue growth, including the end of pandemic-era federal funding support
- Strong reserve positions built up during the pandemic will offset budget pressures for states, cities and counties to fund wage/benefits growth and fund capital needs
- Higher interest rates present risks and opportunities for states, cities and counties
- Environmental risks and housing affordability will constrain city and county flexibility to grow property tax revenues
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SpeakersEva Bogaty Managing Director, US Public Finance Group Moody's Ratings
Eric Hoffmann Associate Managing Director - US Public Finance Group Moody's Investors Service
Hetty Chang Associate Managing Director Moody's Ratings
Bevin Erickson AVP - Analyst Moody's Ratings
Katie Townsend Analyst Moody's Investors Service
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Eva Bogaty manages the Not-for-Profit Healthcare ratings team, and is a co-manager of local government ratings in the US, with a focus on the Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco Local Government ratings teams. While at Moody’s, Eva has also served as the team lead for the Western States Local Governments ratings team, and as a lead analyst on both the Higher Education and Healthcare ratings teams. She serves as a rating chair across the public finance group and has significant experience in academic medical centers, not-for-profits, K-12 school districts, charter schools, and public hospital districts.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Eva worked in economic development for New York State, and in Russian women’s business development for a USAID-funded not-for-profit. Eva holds an MBA from New York University and an AB in Russian and East European Area Studies from Middlebury College
Eric Hoffmann is a Senior Vice President and Manager for the San Francisco Local
Governments Ratings Team. He manages a team of analysts covering credits primarily
for California’s highest profile local governments and essential purpose enterprises.
Eric is a senior member of Moody’s Rating Committee and a member of the firm’s
Public Finance Franchise Committee, which establishes the firm’s US public finance
rating methodologies.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Eric held positions in economic and policy consulting in
Washington D.C. and with the California Governor’s Office of Policy and Research in
Sacramento. Eric holds an MPP from the University of California at Berkeley and an
undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Maryland.
Hetty is an Associate Managing Director for MIS Ratings and Research in the US Public Finance Group. She leads a team of analysts responsible for a portfolio comprising US States and Territories, Mass Transit and US Federal Leases.
Previously, Hetty led a team of Associate Analysts in Ratings and Research Support supporting lead analysts in the US Public Finance Group and the Financial Institutions Group in the Americas. Prior to that, she was a Team Leader of analysts in US PFG covering local governments in eight Midwest states and was based out of the Chicago, Illinois office. Hetty initially joined Moody’s as an analyst on the Midwest Local Government team in 2003.
Hetty has participated in various strategic initiatives, including kickstarting R&R Global Training Councils for the fundamental ratings teams and serving as an MCO Corporate Social Responsibility Impact Leader Chair. She has represented Moody’s as a member of the National Board of Directors of Women in Public Finance and as a board member of the Chicago Municipal Analyst Society, a local constituent of the National Federation of Municipal Analysts.
Prior to joining Moody’s, she was a senior consultant at KPMG LLP in the Dispute Advisory Services practice, providing accounting, valuation, and litigation arbitration services to corporate and public sector clients. Hetty has a BS in Human Development from Cornell University and an MS in Urban Policy from the New School University in New York City.
Bevin Erickson is an Assistant Vice President/Analyst on the States Rating Team and currently covers Arkansas, Iowa, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Bevin worked in both new business and surveillance at a bond insurer. Bevin hold a MPA from Pace University, a MBA from the University of Connecticut and BS in finance from Fairfield University.
Katie Townsend is an Associate Lead Analyst on the Northeast Local Government Ratings Team working on credits in New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont.
Prior to joining Moody’s Katie worked in structured finance at S&P Global Ratings and Bank of New York Melon. Katie holds a BA in Political Science and International Studies from Loyola University Chicago.