Changing State of the US Consumer

What’s Holding Up the US Consumer? Affluence, Asset Gains & AI in Focus

Assessing the risks if the pillars of growth begin to shift.

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  • Economic growth remains solid but is slowing, with downside risks predominating.
  • Consumer strength—and the broader economy—is underpinned by asset gains and persistent affluence, supported in part by AI-driven investment.
  • Consumer credit will weaken in 2026 as the labor market softens and real income growth slows.
  • AI’s potential is a driver of slower job growth, even as current productivity gains remain modest.


If you have any questions, please contact jun.li@moodys.com.

Speakers

Warren Kornfeld

Warren Kornfeld

Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions

Moody's Ratings

Charleyne Biondi

Charleyne Biondi

VP - Senior Analyst, Digital Economy

Moody's Ratings

Madhavi Bokil

Madhavi Bokil

Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy and Guidance

Moody's Ratings

Scott Hoyt

Scott Hoyt

Senior Director - Economic Research

Moody's

Mark Risi

Mark Risi

Associate Managing Director, US RMBS Surveillance

Moody's Ratings

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