Sovereign Deep Dive: MENA and Türkiye
When chokepoints choke: disrupted energy flows test sovereign resilience across MENA and Türkiye
We will examine the shock, its transmission channels, sovereign differentiation, and the conflict’s credit implications.
Key discussion points
- A prolonged shock: macroeconomic and oil-market transmission
- Volumes, not just prices, are the main pressure point for sovereign balance sheets
- Differentiation within the GCC and with oil importers (ratings and outlooks, Gulf resilience and tiering, and the impact on import-dependent sovereigns)
- Diversification momentum under stress in the Gulf
- Debt affordability and external vulnerability remain the key constraints for non-Gulf sovereigns
- Türkiye as a deliberate outlier: can the policy track record and reform agenda hold?
- Systemic fragility increases as the crisis persists
Speakers
Aurelien Mali
Vice President, Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk
Moody's Ratings
Alexander Perjéssy
Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk
Moody's Ratings
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Aurélien Mali is currently Vice President - Ratings. He acts as the firm’s expert in Africa. His position is a combined lead analyst and analytical outreach/credit ambassador role. As a member of the Sovereign Risk Group since August 2002, he was involved in Moody’s sovereign ratings in Europe and the Middle East at the beginning of his career. Over the last 8 years, he has been at the forefront of Moody’s growing footprint in Africa. He has been sovereign lead or backup analyst for almost all sovereign issuers and multilateral development banks we rate in Africa. Aurelien was relocated to our Dubai office early 2013 from our London office. Aurelien manages a research programme that supports the development of Moody’s reputation for analytical insight and excellence. He also assumes a greater role in participating in regular Moody’s and third-party conferences on the continent, Africa-related investor briefings, and undertaking analytical outreach to inform and explain Moody’s credit judgments. Aurelien also supports other Moody’s franchises using his unique experience and visibility across multiple sectors and asset classes in the region. Finally, he remains the lead/backup sovereign analyst for few countries including Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola and South Africa. Aurélien holds a BSc in Economics and a postgraduate degree (DEA) in Money, Finance and Banking from the Panthéon-Sorbonne University in Paris.
Alexander Perjéssy is Senior Vice President at the Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group.
Based in Dubai, he has lead analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereigns in the Middle East, including most of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states and several regional multilateral institutions.
Prior to joining Moody’s in November 2017, Alex worked for two years as economist at the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Before relocating to the Middle East, Alex spent more than 12 years covering macroeconomic developments and sovereign risk assessment in the emerging markets of the EMEA region for AllianceBernstein and The Rohatyn Group, both US-based asset management firms in New York, as well as for Goldman Sachs in London.
Alex holds an MA in Economics from the University of Maryland and a BA in Economics from Middlebury College.