Deep Dive: Asia
The impact of geopolitical shocks & technology disruption on EM credit conditions
Emerging Asia is navigating three powerful forces at once — geopolitical shocks and trade policy shifts, rapid technology and AI adoption, and diverging domestic policy choices. While these appear distinct, they ultimately converge through a few common credit transmission channels: growth, policy credibility, funding conditions, and competitiveness. How these forces are reshaping EM credit outcomes across sectors?
Discussion topics:
- How will geopolitics and trade policy changes affect supply chains and monetary/financial policies?
- Will AI adoption disrupt EM credit profiles?
- How is domestic policy environment affect credit profile in the region?
Speakers
Lillian Li
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy and Guidance Group
Moody's Ratings
Vikash Halan
Managing Director, Corporate Finance
Moody's Ratings
Clement Wong
Managing Director, Corporate Finance
Moody's Ratings
Ray Tay
Associate Managing Director, Project & Infrastructure Finance
Moody's Ratings
Eugene Tarzimanov
Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions
Moody's Ratings
Christian de Guzman
Senior Vice President - Manager, Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk
Moody's Ratings
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Lillian Li is a Vice President–Senior Credit Officer in the Credit Strategy and Guidance Group.
Based in Shanghai, Lillian contributes to thematic research on China, Japan and Korea, particularly with a cross-sectoral and macroeconomic credit focus. Lillian also drives and coordinates research initiatives covering major regional credit events.
Lillian’s role includes designing scenario analysis to test the resilience of credit ratings to a range of potential economic outcomes, as well as developing research publications on macro and credit trends and general market outreach for Great China.
Lillian joined Moody’s after eight years with the McKinsey Global Institute, where she led China macro-related research, including trends related to the macroeconomy, local government debt, as well as urbanization and sustainability. Lillian was also involved in analyzing the real estate, steel, auto and internet retail sectors.
Prior to joining McKinsey, Lillian was an Economic Analyst with the Canadian government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Lillian holds a Masters in Economics from the University of Ottawa and an MBA from the University of Warwick.
Vikash Halan is a Managing Director and team leader for Moody’s Corporate Finance Group, based in Singapore. In this role, he manages a team of rating analysts covering non-financial corporates in Asia Pacific excluding greater China.
Vikash joined Moody’s in 2011 and, prior to becoming a team leader, spent almost a decade as a lead analyst covering a range of sectors, including oil and gas, chemicals, shipping, conglomerates, real estate and investment holding companies.
Before joining Moody’s, Vikash worked for J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong as a capital markets and ratings advisor for clients in the Asia-Pacific region. He started his career as a chartered accountant with the Indian firm, BDO Lodha.
Vikash holds post graduate diploma in Business management form Xavier Institute of Management.
Clement Wong is a Managing Director and team leader with Moody’s Ratings Corporate Finance Group. Based in Hong Kong, he oversees a team of rating analysts covering Chinese industrial corporate entities in sectors including internet, technology, auto, chemicals, food and beverage and more. He and his team are also actively involved in Moody’s Greater China investor outreach activities and have been authoring sector- , issuer- and credit trend-specific research reports.
Clement is an auditor by training with PricewaterhouseCoopers and Deloitte. He has over 20 years of credit experience in the banking industry.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2014, he was Country Credit Officer for Wholesale Banking in Hong Kong and Japan at Standard Chartered. Clement has also worked for several international banks, including Citibank, where he helped set up the commercial banking risk management team in China while stationed in Shanghai for almost five years. During his time at Citibank Shanghai, he also collaborated with other teams to build the bank’s framework for lending and approving credits; and before relocation to Shanghai, as Senior Credit Officer, worked on assessing large corporates’ credit exposure; and had been in charge of problem loan recovery for small-medium-sized companies.
Clement holds a Master’s degree in International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor of Social Science degree from The University of Hong Kong. He is also a CFA charterholder and a CPA.
Ray Tay is a Associate Managing Director in Moody’s Project and Infrastructure Finance Group. Based in Singapore, Ray covers project finance, transport, utilities and other infrastructure credits in Southeast Asia and India. Ray also authors research and conducts outreach focused on topics such as project bonds and the role of funding diversity and credit enhancement in bridging the infrastructure gap, particularly in emerging markets. Ray is also a member of Moody’s APAC ESG Working Group.
Before joining Moody’s in 2012, Ray was a Director with the Global Infrastructure & Projects Group in KPMG. Ray has also worked as a Senior Business Analyst with the Singapore Power Group, focusing on regulatory economics in each of its principal local operating subsidiaries.
Ray holds a Bachelor’s in Economics with honors from the National University of Singapore.
Eugene Tarzimanov is a Senior Vice President in the Financial Institutions Group in Asia. Based in Singapore, he is the Lead Analyst for banks in Southeast Asia, including Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
Eugene is also responsible for coordinating banking research across Asia Pacific, and actively represents Moody’s to regulators, investors and the media on analytical and methodological views. Eugene moved to Singapore from Moody’s Moscow office, where he covered the largest banks in Russia, as well as financial institutions in Europe and the Middle East.
Before joining Moody’s in early 2009, Eugene held senior positions during his five years with Standard & Poor’s, where he was responsible for the analysis of banks in Europe and the Middle East. He has also worked at the CEO’s office of Bank VTB, where he was responsible for inhouse research.
Eugene holds an MBA in financial management from New York’s Pace University, and a BSc in international economics from Moscow’s Finance Academy.
Christian de Guzman is a Senior Vice President with Moody’s Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group. Based in Singapore, he covers a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in Asia Pacific, including Japan, India and a number of Southeast Asian credits, while also managing the team responsible for sub-sovereign ratings in Asia ex-China.
Christian joined Moody’s in 2009, after working as a Senior Economist for the Monetary Authority of Singapore, covering ASEAN economies. He has also held various positions with the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, and Procter & Gamble in Singapore.
Christian was a Phi Beta Kappa graduate in Economics and Political Science at the University of Georgia and received his M.A. in International Economics and Southeast Asian Studies from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.