Canadian Provincial Outlook 2026–2027: Navigating trade headwinds, federal policy shifts and rising debt
Canadian provinces face a complex credit landscape in 2026–27. Ongoing US trade frictions, including tariff risks and the upcoming CUSMA review, weigh on growth and revenue, while prolonged deficits and rising debt burdens test provincial fiscal resilience. Register for this webinar to learn more.
Topics include:
- How are the evolving US tariff regime and the upcoming CUSMA review reshaping provincial economies and fiscal trajectories?
- To what extent do higher energy prices and geopolitical supply disruptions offset or compound the credit challenges facing Canadian provinces?
- How do federal policy shifts, from trade diversification and immigration reform to the evolving scope of national social programs, impact provincial credit profiles?
- How much fiscal flexibility do provinces retain to absorb rising debt, increasing capital spending and persistent cost pressures while maintaining credit quality?
Speakers
Adam Hardi
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sub-Sovereign
Moody's Ratings
Michael Yake
Associate Managing Director, Sub-Sovereign
Moody's Ratings
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Adam Hardi is a Vice President - Senior Credit Officer in Moody’s Global Sub-Sovereign group, based in Toronto. He is one of two lead analysts rating the Canadian provinces, municipalities, and a broad section of government-related issuers in Canada including universities, hospitals, and transit and finance authorities. Adam has broad experience in the public sector, as well as in cyber and digital economy.
Adam holds an MBA from the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, and a B.A. in economics from the University of Manitoba. He is a CFA charterholder and has been teaching the CFA curriculum and writing content since 2008.
Michael Yake is Associate Managing Director in the Sub-Sovereign Group for Moody’s Ratings. Based in Toronto, Michael leads the team of analysts for the Canadian Sub-Sovereign portfolio which covers provinces, municipalities and a wide selection of government related issuers in Canada. He is also a co-manager of the non-US portfolio of Moody’s Global Higher Education group which includes institutions in Canada, Singapore, Australia and the United Kingdom. He joined Moody’s in 2011.
Michael also assumed the role of Moody's Ratings Country Manager for Canada in 2022,overseeing Moody's activities in the country and acting as senior point of contact to issuers and other market participants.
Michael has a broad background in public policy, finance and economics. Prior to joining Moody’s, he was a Senior Economist with the Bank of Canada in their Quebec regional office. He has also held various positions with other federal government departments.
Michael holds an M.A. in economics from Queen’s University and a B.A. in economics from the University of Western Ontario.