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Credit Frontiers 2026

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Data centers do not signal a bubble

Jim Hempstead addresses the question of whether the data centre investment surge constitutes a bubble, concluding it does not. Demand for compute is accelerating as AI evolves from reasoning to agentic and physical applications, while supply is constrained by power availability and specialised labour rather than speculative overbuilding. The historical infrastructure pattern of building ahead of demand and growing into it supports the current trajectory, though chip concentration risk and compute efficiency breakthroughs are flagged as potential disruptors.

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