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Credit Frontiers 2026

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Default rates improve but risks remain

The current speculative-grade default rate peaked in early 2024 and has been trending downward. Baseline projections suggest continued improvement if inflation stays contained and policy rates ease, but risks remain if oil prices rise and high-yield spreads widen. The discussion also covers the unusual divergence between loan and bond default rates, and closes with a five-year look at recovery rates across seniority levels.

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