Credit Frontiers 2026

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schedule Thursday, April 23, 2026 | 9:15 AM - 4:30 PM EDT | Registration starts at 8:30 AM EDT

location_on Quorum by Convene, New York Map

EDFX data point to uneven credit stress

David Hamilton presents forward-looking probability of default data from Moody's Analytics EDFX model, covering all US-listed companies. The data mirrors historical default trends but adds a forward-looking dimension. A persistent and historically wide gap between all-corporate and high-yield PDs since 2021 reflects the K-shaped economy, with smaller, unrated firms bearing disproportionate credit stress. The data points to gradual improvement ahead but lacks a clear catalyst for a sustained downward trend.

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Credit Frontiers 2026

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EDFX data point to uneven credit stress

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