Leveraged loans carry accumulated risk
Lyuba Petrova unpacks why leveraged loan default rates have exceeded high yield bond defaults, tracing the root cause to post-GFC capital flows into the loan market driven by yield, secured positioning, and low-duration appeal. With 40% of the leveraged loan universe now rated B3 or below versus only 20% in high yield, the sector entered the rate-hiking cycle with significant embedded risk. The impact on private credit, BDCs, and middle market CLOs is also assessed.