Sovereign Deep Dive: USA
US fiscal pressures and policy uncertainty: Implications for sovereign credit and its global financial role
The US deep dive will explore how fiscal deficits, debt accumulation and interest costs shape the US sovereign credit outlook, and whether policy choices can improve the fiscal trajectory. The discussion will examine how institutional strength and economic resilience support the credit profile, alongside risks from policy uncertainty. It will also consider the role of the dollar and US Treasuries in global markets and the implications of shifts in investor confidence.
Discussion points:
- What would it take to stabilize the US debt burden, and how much fiscal flexibility remains as interest costs rise?
- How will policy choices and institutional effectiveness influence economic resilience and the sovereign credit outlook?
- How resilient are the dollar’s reserve-currency role and US Treasuries’ safe-haven status, and what would shifts in investor confidence mean for global financing conditions?
Speakers
Ariane Ortiz-Bollin
Executive Director, Sovereign Risk Americas
David Rogovic
Senior Vice President, Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk
Moody's Ratings
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Ariane leads a team of New York-based analysts covering a portfolio of sovereign and Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) credits across the Americas. She is tasked with delivering on timely and accurate ratings, impactful content, and high-quality stakeholder engagement, as well as Moody’s digital strategy and incremental growth areas.
Before leading the Americas’ Sovereign Risk Group team, Ariane was part of the Credit Strategy and Guidance team, where she led cross-sector analytic initiatives, research and outreach covering Latin America. She chaired the Latin America Credit Council and ensured global analytical consistency, fostering collaboration across analytical teams.
From 2021 to 2023, Ariane was part of the Global Emerging Markets team, responsible for generating house views and research, and hosted Moody’s Emerging Markets Decoded podcast.
Prior to that, Ariane spent a decade as a sovereign analyst, managing a portfolio of sovereigns and multilateral development banks in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Mexico, Chile and the International Finance Corporation, leading the internal rating committee discussions for her portfolio of credits, country and region-specific publications, and meetings with government officials.
Before joining Moody’s in 2011, Ariane was a research analyst at the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University, prior to which she was a corporate credit analyst in Citi-Banamex in Mexico.
Ariane graduated with Honors in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) and has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University.
David Rogovic is an Senior Vice President - Ratings in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in New York. David has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereign and supranational credits in Africa as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. David’s prior experience includes the best part of a decade analyzing sovereign credit risk in Western and Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey and Asia with J.P. Morgan, Nomura Asset Management and Roubini Global Economics, as well as an earlier stint with S&P’s financial institutions division. David is a Fulbright scholar (Economics Institute, Zagreb) and was awarded a Master of Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from Pace University.