Sovereign Deep Dive: LATAM
Political transitions will test policy effectiveness and fiscal resilience amid rising shock risks
A shifting political landscape will test whether new governments can translate their mandates into effective policy while navigating fragmented legislatures and governability constraints. In countries such as Colombia and Mexico, rigid spending, elevated interest burdens and competing social demands will complicate fiscal adjustment and efforts to rebuild buffers. These constraints will become increasingly credit relevant as the region faces potential shocks from El Niño, commodity-price volatility and tighter global financing conditions.
Discussion points:
- How will political shifts affect fiscal, economic and security policies, and can new governments overcome governability constraints and spending rigidities to implement meaningful change and rebuild fiscal space?
- Which sovereigns have sufficient fiscal and institutional buffers to withstand El Niño and other external shocks, and where are credit pressures most likely to emerge?
- Can recent credit improvements continue among lower-rated sovereigns such as Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador, and will the credit profiles of Ba-rated sovereigns such as Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic continue to converge with those of Baa-rated peers?
Speakers
Jaime Reusche
Vice President, Sovereign Risk
Moody’s Ratings
Renzo Merino
Vice President, Sovereign Risk
Moody’s Ratings
Confirm cancellation
An error occurred trying to play the stream. Please reload the page and try again.
CloseMoody's Events
close
Jaime Reusche is a Vice President – Ratings in Moody’s sovereign risk group. He has over 21 years of industry experience. Jaime is responsible for analysis and ratings of Latin American sovereigns. He authors research on developments impacting sovereign credit quality, participates in sovereign rating committees, and is responsible for communicating sovereign risk group views in investor briefings and discussions with policymakers. Previously, he was lead analyst for a portfolio of Central and Eastern European sovereigns in the same group, before refocusing on Latin America.
He had worked as a Director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group covering Latin American credits including Argentina, Chile and Central American countries until 2011. Prior to this, Mr. Reusche held the positions of analyst, associate analyst and senior associate throughout his nearly seven years at the sovereigns group in Moody’s, where he covered Latin American and Eastern European sovereigns, and oversaw data collection for Moody’s semi-annual Country Statistical Handbook.
Renzo joined Moody’s in 2011 and is a lead analyst for sovereign and supranational ratings in Latin America. His portfolio includes Mexico and Peru, and previously covered other credits including Colombia and Panama. He is also the lead analyst for CAF and CABEI.
Renzo regularly publishes research and presents at Moody’s regional events and webinars on credit-relevant issues affecting the Latin American region. He also presents at external conferences and media engagements related to his
portfolio and research. He graduated from New York University with an MA in Economics and holds a BA in Economics, with a minor in Political Science, from the University of Pennsylvania.