Sovereign Credit Today | An update on Mexico
Mexico's ratings downgraded to Baa3 with stable outlook amid fiscal weakening driven by spending rigidities, continued PEMEX support, and eroding fiscal policy anchors
- What is the rationale behind the downgrade?
- How credible is Mexico's fiscal consolidation path given conflicting policy priorities—including PEMEX support and constitutionally mandated social spending—and what would it take to stabilize debt metrics?
- What are the key upside and downside risks for Mexico's credit profile at the Baa3 rating level?
Speakers
Jaime Reusche
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk
Moody’s Ratings
Renzo Merino
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk
Moody’s Ratings
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Jaime Reusche is a Vice President – Senior Credit Officer in Moody’s sovereign risk group. He has over 21 years of industry experience. Jaime is responsible for analysis and ratings of Latin American sovereigns. He authors research on developments impacting sovereign credit quality, participates in sovereign rating committees, and is responsible for communicating sovereign risk group views in investor briefings and discussions with policymakers. Previously, he was lead analyst for a portfolio of Central and Eastern European sovereigns in the same group, before refocusing on Latin America.
He had worked as a Director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group covering Latin American credits including Argentina, Chile and Central American countries until 2011. Prior to this, Mr. Reusche held the positions of analyst, associate analyst and senior associate throughout his nearly seven years at the sovereigns group in Moody’s, where he covered Latin American and Eastern European sovereigns, and oversaw data collection for Moody’s semi-annual Country Statistical Handbook.
Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y credit officer sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Ratings. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.