Emerging Markets Summit 2021
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Agenda keyboard_arrow_down
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13:00
Welcome remarks - Emerging Markets in 2021
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13:10
Moody’s Credit Compass: Are Emerging Markets leading or lagging the global economic recovery?
Indications suggest that global growth is slowly starting to recover from the lows of 2020 thanks to fiscal and monetary stimulus, positive vaccine developments, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Against this background emerging markets face both opportunities and challenges as they navigate through the rest of the year.
- Which countries and sectors are already accelerating their post-pandemic recovery, and which are lagging?
- What drives the markets at the forefront of recovery, and what holds back others?
- How do Emerging Markets rating and default trends compare to those in advanced economies?
- Can current data and models tell us which economic scars will heal, and which will leave a permanent mark?
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13:35
Keynote Fireside Chat: After the pandemic, will this decade be the decade of Sustainability?
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14:10
Assessing Emerging Market Debt Sustainability – Progress, Priorities and Pitfalls
Low interest rates afford larger, stronger EMs considerable capacity to stabilize debt ratios without requiring excessively painful fiscal adjustment, whereas the position of weaker frontier markets is far more precarious in a post-Covid world
- What are the risks that interest rates will rise? How quickly would rising rates challenge debt sustainability and which countries are most exposed?
- DSSI, Common Framework debt treatment, redirecting excess SDRs – what are the risks for private creditors in frontier market relief initiatives?
- Has the increase in sovereign debt defaults peaked or should markets brace for more? What is the outlook for EM corporate debt in the context of sovereign debt challenges?
- To what extent are EM governments taking the opportunity to reset towards sustainable growth priorities to drive long-term recovery?
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14:55
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Speakers keyboard_arrow_down
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AGENDA (BST)
13:00 Welcome Remarks - Emerging Markets in 2021
13:10 Moody's Credit Compass: Are Emerging Markets leading or lagging the global economic recovery?
13:35 Keynote Fireside Chat: After the pandemic, will this decade be the decade of Sustainability?
14:10 Assessing Emerging Market Debt Sustainability - Progress, Priorities and Pitfalls
14:55 Closing Remarks
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Philipp Lotter is Managing Director – Global Ratings and Research,based in London. He is responsible for the development of MIS ratings and research opinions for global fundamental and structured finance ratings groups,and the delivery of services to issuers and the market.
Prior to assuming this role in November 2019, he was Global Head and before that EMEA Co-Head of the Corporate Finance Group.
Philipp has spent many years of his career abroad with strong Emerging and Developing Markets coverage experience. He spent more than 5 years in Asia, where he he ldthe dual role of Country Manager for Moody’s office in Singapore, as well as Managing Director of the Corporate Finance Group responsible for companies across Southeast Asia and India.
Before that, Philipp spent more than 3 years in Dubai, United Arab Emirates,where he was responsible for setting up the Moody’s office in Dubai and for the ratings of Middle Eastern corporate issuers across all sectors, including Islamic finance. Having joined Moody’s in London in 2003, Philipp started as an analyst covering utilities and the oil & gas industry.
Before joining Moody’s, Philipp spent 3 years in rating advisory at Citigroup.His career has also included positions at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London and Frankfurt in rating advisory, bond and credit research, and leveraged financing. Philipp holds a Diploma from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has also attended international semesters at the European Business School in London and University College Dublin.
Atsi Sheth is Managing Director and Global Head, Credit Strategy and Research.
Moody’s Credit Strategy & Research group includes global teams focused on Macroeconomic Research, Default & Ratings Analytics and Global Emerging Markets as well as regional credit strategy teams each focused on Asia-Pacific, the Americas, and EMEA.
Together these teams establish and articulate Moody’s house views on the trends that drive risk across countries, sectors and asset classes. They undertake in depth data driven analysis and leverage the expertise of ratings and research analysts across Moody’s to generate global, regional and sector insights on macro-economic, political, policy, technology and environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks.
In her capacity leading the group, Atsi also serves as a spokesperson on Moody’s analytic views, engaging with investors, the media and a wide range of public and private sector stakeholders.
Atsi is a long-time champion of Moody’s Diversity, Equity & Inclusion (DE&I) as well as our Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives. She serves as co-chair of the CSR Thought Leadership & Solutions working group and the Senior Advisor to Moody’s Asian Leadership Initiative - a Multicultural Business Resource Group.
Prior to her current role, Atsi was Moody’s Chief Credit Officer for the Americas and before that Managing Director in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. She has also served as Chief Economist at Reliance Capital and taught courses on International Political Economy and Emerging Markets at Columbia University and Northwestern University. Atsi has a PhD from Northwestern University and a B.A. from Bombay University.
Dr. Juan M. Licari is a managing director at Moody's Analytics. Juan and team-members are responsible for the research and analytics that enable our quantitative solutions. The team helps our customers solve complex business problems; adding value through data and analytics.
The analytics team specializes in solutions that help (i) understand, (ii) quantify, (iii) manage, and (iv) integrate risk. When it comes to specific methods to be selected the team has an open-mind approach; leveraging alternative tools ranging from traditional statistics & econometrics to machine learning & AI data-driven algorithms.
The solutions enabled by the team’s analytics are leveraged by our valued customers into core practices such as credit origination & pricing, stress testing & forecasting, optimal investment & portfolio management, ESG risk/opportunity quantification, capital & liquidity adequacy and cash-flow analysis.
A key value added to existing modelling methodologies comes from the explicit connection to the underlying economic cycle. This forward-looking philosophy allows decision-makers to plan for alternative scenarios and anticipate changes in credit and business conditions.
Juan is actively involved in communicating the team’s research and methodologies to the market. He is a public speaker at risk management events and economic conferences worldwide. Dr. Licari is a thought-leader in the risk management industry with frequently cited research publications.
As for his education, Dr. Licari holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and graduated Summa Cum Laude from the National University of Cordoba in Argentina. He is currently enrolled at the Executive MBA from the University of Cambridge, expecting to graduate in 2023. Juan is a proud Latino and ambassador for Moody’s Diversity, Equity & Inclusion initiatives.
Jeffrey D. Sachs is a University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. He is President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and a commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission for Development. Sachs has been advisor to three United Nations Secretaries-General, and currently serves as an SDG Advocate under Secretary-General António Guterres. Sachs was twice named among Time magazine’s 100 most influential world leaders and was ranked by The Economist among the top three most influential living economists.
Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries. Marie is also a project owner of Moody’s Investors Service’s ESG scores, which were launched in early 2021.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work. Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
Matt Robinson manages the Sovereign Risk Group’s Middle East and Africa team producing ratings and research regarding sovereign and supranational creditworthiness in Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East/North Africa. He is responsible for managing staff located in London, Frankfurt, Dubai and New York.
Matt joined Moody’s in 2007 after a decade of macroeconomic and public policy experience. Prior to managing the Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings team, Matt was the Director of Sovereign Research, responsible for coordinating and contributing to the research produced by Moody’s global team of sovereign risk analysts. Matt previously managed the affairs of the Moody’s Economy.com Sydney office, providing independent economic analysis, data and forecasting and credit risk services to Moody’s Analytics’ worldwide client base. Before joining Moody’s, Matt worked as an economist and policy adviser in a number of public and private sector organisations, including Commonwealth Treasury and the Economic Division of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet in Australia.
Matt received his bachelor of economics from the University of Newcastle(Australia) and his graduate degree from the Australian National University.
Giulia Pellegrini is a Senior Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt at AllianzGI, where she focuses on EM sovereign debt strategies and Sustainable Investing. She also advises the London Stock Exchange as a member of their Sustainable Bond Market Advisory Group. Prior to joining AllianzGI in 2020, she was Head of Sustainable EM Debt Investing at BlackRock since 2015. Ms Pellegrini was previously Chief Economist for Sub-Saharan Africa in J.P. Morgan’s Emerging Market Research team in London and in Johannesburg and an Economist at the World Bank in the Africa Finance and Private Sector Development Department in Washington D.C. She started her career as an Economist at the Debt Management Office of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in Abuja. Giulia holds master degrees in Development Economics and in Econometrics from the University of Oxford, St Antony’s College and from Birkbeck College as well as a BSc in Economics from the School of Oriental and African Studies – University of London.
Elena Duggar is Moody’s Chief Credit Officer for the Americas, and a Managing Director in the Credit Strategy & Research team. Elena is also the Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, which sets the global macroeconomic forecasts underpinning Moody’s universe of ratings.
In her role leading the North and Latin America Credit Strategy & Research teams and the Global Macroeconomic Research team, Elena is responsible for forming house views on emerging risks, driving cross-functional alignment on key credit factors, coordinating rating approach across sectors in the Americas, and maintaining rigor in analytic frameworks.
Elena leads major cross-sector outreach and research initiatives, such as Moody’s Global Credit Conditions Outlook, Global Macroeconomic Outlook, Debt after COVID and Global Trade Monitor, along with thematic research on macro, sovereign, demographics and financial risk topics. Elena represents Moody’s at the IIF Committee for Sovereign Risk Management and the IIF Principles Consultative Group for the Principles for Stable Capital Flows and Fair Debt Restructuring.
Elena has served as Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board since 2016 and prior to that served as Moody’s Group Credit Officer for Sovereign Risk, covering the global sovereign ratings portfolio. She is a globally-recognized expert on sovereign defaults and the author of market leading sovereign credit research, including Moody’s Sovereign Defaults series. For example, her research on the role of holdouts in sovereign debt restructurings was cited as expert evidence in the landmark 2015 US Supreme Court case on Argentina. Elena regularly represents Moody’s macro and credit views with external audiences, including senior policymakers, international organizations such as the UN, IMF and IIF, think tanks, academia, regulators and investors. Elena’s research is frequently cited in the WSJ, the FT, Bloomberg, Reuters and leading financial media.
Elena joined Moody’s in 2007 and previously was an Economist at the IMF. She holds a B.A. in Economics from Bates College and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Amer Bisat, PhD., is Managing Director and Head of Sovereign and Emerging Markets (alpha) at BlackRock. At BlackRock, Dr. Bisat leads a team managing approximately $20 billion in EM government and corporate bonds; is a member of the Fundamental Fixed Income ExCo; and is a named PM on several flagship funds. Prior to BlackRock, Dr. Bisat held portfolio management positions at Morgan Stanley and UBS. Between 1991 and 1998, he was a senior economist at the IMF where he was part of teams that negotiated high profile programs in Russia, Ukraine and Egypt. He taught graduate level economics at Columbia University, co-authored a book on globalization, and published a number of papers on growth and financial economics. He is the former Chairman of the Arab Banking Association of North America (ABANA), sits on the Board of several cultural and non-profit institutions and is a member of the Council of Foreign Relations. He earned a BA in economics from the American University of Beirut and a PhD in economics and finance from Columbia University.
Philipp Lotter is Managing Director – Global Ratings and Research,based in London. He is responsible for the development of MIS ratings and research opinions for global fundamental and structured finance ratings groups,and the delivery of services to issuers and the market.
Prior to assuming this role in November 2019, he was Global Head and before that EMEA Co-Head of the Corporate Finance Group.
Philipp has spent many years of his career abroad with strong Emerging and Developing Markets coverage experience. He spent more than 5 years in Asia, where he he ldthe dual role of Country Manager for Moody’s office in Singapore, as well as Managing Director of the Corporate Finance Group responsible for companies across Southeast Asia and India.
Before that, Philipp spent more than 3 years in Dubai, United Arab Emirates,where he was responsible for setting up the Moody’s office in Dubai and for the ratings of Middle Eastern corporate issuers across all sectors, including Islamic finance. Having joined Moody’s in London in 2003, Philipp started as an analyst covering utilities and the oil & gas industry.
Before joining Moody’s, Philipp spent 3 years in rating advisory at Citigroup.His career has also included positions at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London and Frankfurt in rating advisory, bond and credit research, and leveraged financing. Philipp holds a Diploma from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has also attended international semesters at the European Business School in London and University College Dublin.
Philipp Lotter is Managing Director – Global Ratings and Research,based in London. He is responsible for the development of MIS ratings and research opinions for global fundamental and structured finance ratings groups,and the delivery of services to issuers and the market.
Prior to assuming this role in November 2019, he was Global Head and before that EMEA Co-Head of the Corporate Finance Group.
Philipp has spent many years of his career abroad with strong Emerging and Developing Markets coverage experience. He spent more than 5 years in Asia, where he he ldthe dual role of Country Manager for Moody’s office in Singapore, as well as Managing Director of the Corporate Finance Group responsible for companies across Southeast Asia and India.
Before that, Philipp spent more than 3 years in Dubai, United Arab Emirates,where he was responsible for setting up the Moody’s office in Dubai and for the ratings of Middle Eastern corporate issuers across all sectors, including Islamic finance. Having joined Moody’s in London in 2003, Philipp started as an analyst covering utilities and the oil & gas industry.
Before joining Moody’s, Philipp spent 3 years in rating advisory at Citigroup.His career has also included positions at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London and Frankfurt in rating advisory, bond and credit research, and leveraged financing. Philipp holds a Diploma from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has also attended international semesters at the European Business School in London and University College Dublin.
Atsi Sheth is Managing Director and Global Head, Credit Strategy and Research.
Moody’s Credit Strategy & Research group includes global teams focused on Macroeconomic Research, Default & Ratings Analytics and Global Emerging Markets as well as regional credit strategy teams each focused on Asia-Pacific, the Americas, and EMEA.
Together these teams establish and articulate Moody’s house views on the trends that drive risk across countries, sectors and asset classes. They undertake in depth data driven analysis and leverage the expertise of ratings and research analysts across Moody’s to generate global, regional and sector insights on macro-economic, political, policy, technology and environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks.
In her capacity leading the group, Atsi also serves as a spokesperson on Moody’s analytic views, engaging with investors, the media and a wide range of public and private sector stakeholders.
Atsi is a long-time champion of Moody’s Diversity, Equity & Inclusion (DE&I) as well as our Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives. She serves as co-chair of the CSR Thought Leadership & Solutions working group and the Senior Advisor to Moody’s Asian Leadership Initiative - a Multicultural Business Resource Group.
Prior to her current role, Atsi was Moody’s Chief Credit Officer for the Americas and before that Managing Director in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. She has also served as Chief Economist at Reliance Capital and taught courses on International Political Economy and Emerging Markets at Columbia University and Northwestern University. Atsi has a PhD from Northwestern University and a B.A. from Bombay University.
Dr. Juan M. Licari is a managing director at Moody's Analytics. Juan and team-members are responsible for the research and analytics that enable our quantitative solutions. The team helps our customers solve complex business problems; adding value through data and analytics.
The analytics team specializes in solutions that help (i) understand, (ii) quantify, (iii) manage, and (iv) integrate risk. When it comes to specific methods to be selected the team has an open-mind approach; leveraging alternative tools ranging from traditional statistics & econometrics to machine learning & AI data-driven algorithms.
The solutions enabled by the team’s analytics are leveraged by our valued customers into core practices such as credit origination & pricing, stress testing & forecasting, optimal investment & portfolio management, ESG risk/opportunity quantification, capital & liquidity adequacy and cash-flow analysis.
A key value added to existing modelling methodologies comes from the explicit connection to the underlying economic cycle. This forward-looking philosophy allows decision-makers to plan for alternative scenarios and anticipate changes in credit and business conditions.
Juan is actively involved in communicating the team’s research and methodologies to the market. He is a public speaker at risk management events and economic conferences worldwide. Dr. Licari is a thought-leader in the risk management industry with frequently cited research publications.
As for his education, Dr. Licari holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and graduated Summa Cum Laude from the National University of Cordoba in Argentina. He is currently enrolled at the Executive MBA from the University of Cambridge, expecting to graduate in 2023. Juan is a proud Latino and ambassador for Moody’s Diversity, Equity & Inclusion initiatives.
Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries. Marie is also a project owner of Moody’s Investors Service’s ESG scores, which were launched in early 2021.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work. Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
Jeffrey D. Sachs is a University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. He is President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and a commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission for Development. Sachs has been advisor to three United Nations Secretaries-General, and currently serves as an SDG Advocate under Secretary-General António Guterres. Sachs was twice named among Time magazine’s 100 most influential world leaders and was ranked by The Economist among the top three most influential living economists.
Elena Duggar is Moody’s Chief Credit Officer for the Americas, and a Managing Director in the Credit Strategy & Research team. Elena is also the Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, which sets the global macroeconomic forecasts underpinning Moody’s universe of ratings.
In her role leading the North and Latin America Credit Strategy & Research teams and the Global Macroeconomic Research team, Elena is responsible for forming house views on emerging risks, driving cross-functional alignment on key credit factors, coordinating rating approach across sectors in the Americas, and maintaining rigor in analytic frameworks.
Elena leads major cross-sector outreach and research initiatives, such as Moody’s Global Credit Conditions Outlook, Global Macroeconomic Outlook, Debt after COVID and Global Trade Monitor, along with thematic research on macro, sovereign, demographics and financial risk topics. Elena represents Moody’s at the IIF Committee for Sovereign Risk Management and the IIF Principles Consultative Group for the Principles for Stable Capital Flows and Fair Debt Restructuring.
Elena has served as Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board since 2016 and prior to that served as Moody’s Group Credit Officer for Sovereign Risk, covering the global sovereign ratings portfolio. She is a globally-recognized expert on sovereign defaults and the author of market leading sovereign credit research, including Moody’s Sovereign Defaults series. For example, her research on the role of holdouts in sovereign debt restructurings was cited as expert evidence in the landmark 2015 US Supreme Court case on Argentina. Elena regularly represents Moody’s macro and credit views with external audiences, including senior policymakers, international organizations such as the UN, IMF and IIF, think tanks, academia, regulators and investors. Elena’s research is frequently cited in the WSJ, the FT, Bloomberg, Reuters and leading financial media.
Elena joined Moody’s in 2007 and previously was an Economist at the IMF. She holds a B.A. in Economics from Bates College and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Matt Robinson manages the Sovereign Risk Group’s Middle East and Africa team producing ratings and research regarding sovereign and supranational creditworthiness in Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East/North Africa. He is responsible for managing staff located in London, Frankfurt, Dubai and New York.
Matt joined Moody’s in 2007 after a decade of macroeconomic and public policy experience. Prior to managing the Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings team, Matt was the Director of Sovereign Research, responsible for coordinating and contributing to the research produced by Moody’s global team of sovereign risk analysts. Matt previously managed the affairs of the Moody’s Economy.com Sydney office, providing independent economic analysis, data and forecasting and credit risk services to Moody’s Analytics’ worldwide client base. Before joining Moody’s, Matt worked as an economist and policy adviser in a number of public and private sector organisations, including Commonwealth Treasury and the Economic Division of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet in Australia.
Matt received his bachelor of economics from the University of Newcastle(Australia) and his graduate degree from the Australian National University.
Giulia Pellegrini is a Senior Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt at AllianzGI, where she focuses on EM sovereign debt strategies and Sustainable Investing. She also advises the London Stock Exchange as a member of their Sustainable Bond Market Advisory Group. Prior to joining AllianzGI in 2020, she was Head of Sustainable EM Debt Investing at BlackRock since 2015. Ms Pellegrini was previously Chief Economist for Sub-Saharan Africa in J.P. Morgan’s Emerging Market Research team in London and in Johannesburg and an Economist at the World Bank in the Africa Finance and Private Sector Development Department in Washington D.C. She started her career as an Economist at the Debt Management Office of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in Abuja. Giulia holds master degrees in Development Economics and in Econometrics from the University of Oxford, St Antony’s College and from Birkbeck College as well as a BSc in Economics from the School of Oriental and African Studies – University of London.
Amer Bisat, PhD., is Managing Director and Head of Sovereign and Emerging Markets (alpha) at BlackRock. At BlackRock, Dr. Bisat leads a team managing approximately $20 billion in EM government and corporate bonds; is a member of the Fundamental Fixed Income ExCo; and is a named PM on several flagship funds. Prior to BlackRock, Dr. Bisat held portfolio management positions at Morgan Stanley and UBS. Between 1991 and 1998, he was a senior economist at the IMF where he was part of teams that negotiated high profile programs in Russia, Ukraine and Egypt. He taught graduate level economics at Columbia University, co-authored a book on globalization, and published a number of papers on growth and financial economics. He is the former Chairman of the Arab Banking Association of North America (ABANA), sits on the Board of several cultural and non-profit institutions and is a member of the Council of Foreign Relations. He earned a BA in economics from the American University of Beirut and a PhD in economics and finance from Columbia University.