2023年末に低迷し、2024年の年初も芳しくなかった中国経済は、その後、息を吹き返す兆しを見せています。貿易、鉱工業生産、固定資産投資はすべて、年初の数カ月で持ち直しています。一方、不動産市場の問題や地政学的緊張を中心とした、長引く構造的課題は残っています。さらに、消費は鳴りを潜め、家計の財布の紐は堅く閉じています。
ムーディーズ・アナリティックスのエコノミスト・チームが、2024年以降の中国の見通しについて解説します。ぜひ奮ってご参加ください。
※英日同時通訳をご用意しております。
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SpeakersSteve Cochrane Chief APAC Economist Moody's
Harry Murphy Cruise Head of China and Australia Economics Moody's
Sarah Tan Economist Moody's Analytics
Heron Lim Economist Moody's Analytics
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Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
A highly-regarded speaker, Dr. Cochrane has provided economic insights at hundreds of engagements over the past 20 years and has been featured on CNBC, CNA, Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Radio, and the PBS News Hour. Through his research and presentations, Steve dissects how various components of the macro and regional economies shape patterns of growth. His extensive expertise on U.S. and global economic issues makes also him a popular speaker at client conferences and executive briefings.
Steve holds a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. He also holds a master's degree from the University of Colorado at Denver and a bachelor's degree from the University of California at Davis.
Harry Murphy Cruise is a Head of China and Australia Economics at Moody’s, based in Sydney. Harry is responsible for covering the Chinese and Australian economies, as well as managing Moody’s’ subnational Asia Pacific forecasts. Harry is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC and Bloomberg. He holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Arts and Commerce from Monash University.
Sarah Tan is an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. She is responsible for covering economies across the Asia-Pacific region. She holds a post-graduate diploma in EU Competition Law from King’s College London and a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the National University of Singapore. Sarah was previously an economist at Changi Airports International and a senior analyst at the Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore.
Heron Lim is an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. He is also an external lecturer at ESSEC Business School, teaching at its Asia-Pacific campus. Heron previously held a position with Experian Credit Services Singapore, looking at SME issues in the region. He holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Singapore Management University.