不安定な不動産市場と低迷する家計消費に悩まされている中国経済は足場を見つけるのに苦労しています。製造業は依然として明るい兆しを見せていますが、高まる貿易摩擦により、同セクターの輸出展望が暗くなるリスクがあります。経済の困難に対応するため、政府は支援を強化しており、短期的な展望は改善しています。支援策により、経済は年間の約5％の目標に近い水準に持ち直すでしょう。しかし、経済の構造的な課題に対処するためには、さらに多くの措置が必要です。それがなければ、不動産市場が2025年まで足かせとなり、家計は消費を増やすインセンティブを持たないままでしょう。
ムーディーズ・アナリティックスのエコノミストたちと共に、中国経済の展望について、特に不動産市場、貿易、消費者支出、そして米国大統領選挙の影響について探求しましょう。
※英日同時通訳をご用意しております。
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SpeakersSteve Cochrane Chief APAC Economist Moody's Analytics
Harry Murphy Cruise Head of China and Australia Economics Moody's
Sarah Tan Economist Moody's Analytics
Heron Lim Economist Moody's
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Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
A highly-regarded speaker, Dr. Cochrane has provided economic insights at hundreds of engagements over the past 20 years and has been featured on CNBC, CNA, Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Radio, and the PBS News Hour. Through his research and presentations, Steve dissects how various components of the macro and regional economies shape patterns of growth. His extensive expertise on U.S. and global economic issues makes also him a popular speaker at client conferences and executive briefings.
Steve holds a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. He also holds a master's degree from the University of Colorado at Denver and a bachelor's degree from the University of California at Davis.
Harry Murphy Cruise is a Head of China and Australia Economics at Moody’s, based in Sydney. Harry is responsible for covering the Chinese and Australian economies, as well as managing Moody’s’ subnational Asia Pacific forecasts. Harry is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC and Bloomberg. He holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Arts and Commerce from Monash University.
Sarah Tan is an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. She is responsible for covering economies across the Asia-Pacific region. She holds a post-graduate diploma in EU Competition Law from King’s College London and a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the National University of Singapore. Sarah was previously an economist at Changi Airports International and a senior analyst at the Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore.
Heron Lim is an economist at Moody’s in Singapore. He is also an external lecturer at ESSEC Business School, teaching at its Asia-Pacific campus. Heron previously held a position with Experian Credit Services Singapore, looking at SME issues in the region. He holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Singapore Management University.