今年、日本経済は転換点を迎えるはずでした。市場は、実質賃金の上昇、数十年に及ぶデフレからの脱却、そして金利上昇を期待していました。一時は、予定どおりに進んでいるように見えました。金利は上昇し、円安と投資家のユーフォリオ（陶酔感）により、株価は史上最高値を更新しました。
しかし、夢のシナリオ実現とはなりませんでした。物価は賃金を上回る勢いで上昇し、家計は逼迫、個人消費は低迷しています。輸出の低迷も重荷になっています。 期待された好景気は訪れず、今年、日本経済は縮小する可能性があります。
不透明な世界情勢に加え、国内政治が行き詰まるなか、2025年の日本経済の行方はどうなるのでしょうか。
このウェビナーでは、ムーディーズ・アナリティックスのエコノミストのStefan AngrickおよびSteve Cochraneが日本経済の見通しについて解説します。
トピック：
- 2025年の成長率とインフレ率の見通し
- 円、賃金上昇、および金融政策の見通し
- 日本と米国の選挙の経済政策への影響
- 個人消費と企業設備投資の行方
- 世界経済と地域経済の状況
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SpeakersSteve Cochrane Chief APAC Economist Moody's Analytics
Stefan Angrick Director — Economic Research Moody's
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Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
A highly-regarded speaker, Dr. Cochrane has provided economic insights at hundreds of engagements over the past 20 years and has been featured on CNBC, CNA, Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Radio, and the PBS News Hour. Through his research and presentations, Steve dissects how various components of the macro and regional economies shape patterns of growth. His extensive expertise on U.S. and global economic issues makes also him a popular speaker at client conferences and executive briefings.
Steve holds a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. He also holds a master's degree from the University of Colorado at Denver and a bachelor's degree from the University of California at Davis.
Stefan Angrick is a director at Moody’s Analytics in Tokyo. He leads the firm’s country risk analysis and oversees scenario analysis, climate modeling, and nowcasting for the Asia-Pacific region. As head of Japan and frontier market economics, he directs research on Northeast Asia and small emerging economies globally. Stefan’s research focuses on trade, foreign direct investment, and portfolio flows.
His work is regularly quoted in major international media, including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Reuters. He frequently appears on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and BBC, and contributes op-eds to the Financial Times and Nikkei. Stefan holds a PhD from Tokyo’s National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, a master’s degree from Leipzig University, and spent a year studying at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He has previously held positions with Oxford Economics, the Asian Development Bank Institute, the Bank of Finland, and Keio University. His academic work has been published in leading journals such as the Cambridge Journal of Economics and the International Journal of Central Banking.