Australia and New Zealand Economic Outlook: Rate Cut Countdown
The Australian and New Zealand economies have slowed with the high interest rate environment. Relief is on the horizon with inflation cooling and rate cuts in view by the second half. Australia has held up better than expected, helped by solid population growth and a resilient labour market. New Zealand has also benefited from these factors, but to a lesser extent.
Topics include:
- Business investment and confidence remain steady, despite slower domestic demand and offshore weakness. However, signs of stress in certain sectors may lead to corporate credit quality deterioration, making early warning of risk a priority.
- Labour markets are weakening, as interest rate hikes continue to permeate.
- Oceania’s important merchandise export channel has seen marked variability, while the service export recovery has been sluggish.
- Oceania isn’t immune from geopolitical tensions that are clouding the expected global economic recovery later this year.
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SpeakersKatrina Ell Deputy APAC Chief Economist Moody's
Harry Murphy Cruise Head of China and Australia Economics Moody's
Shannon Nicoll Economist Moody's Analytics
Brenda Solis Analytics & Modeling Moody's Analytics
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Katrina Ell is a Head of Asia Economics in the Sydney office of Moody’s. Katrina manages the Asia-Pacific edition of Economy.com and is responsible for the research, analysis and forecasting of economies throughout the Asia-Pacific region, with a particular focus on Australia and New Zealand. Katrina is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Sky News. She previously worked as an analyst at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Katrina received her bachelor’s degree in economics (honours) from Macquarie University and is currently completing her Masters in Applied Economics at Macquarie University.
Harry Murphy Cruise is a Head of China and Australia Economics at Moody’s, based in Sydney. Harry is responsible for covering the Chinese and Australian economies, as well as managing Moody’s’ subnational Asia Pacific forecasts. Harry is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC and Bloomberg. He holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Arts and Commerce from Monash University.
Shannon Nicoll is an economist with Moody’s Analytics. Based in Sydney, he provides analysis for countries across the Asia-Pacific region, particularly New Zealand. Shannon holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and finance from the University of Wollongong. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, he worked at the NSW Department of Planning and Environment.
Brenda is an economist and Head of Research Insights for Asia Pacific. She leads a team of modellers and data scientists that design and implement quantitative risk management solutions for ESG and climate change, Asset Liability Management (ALM) and corporate credit risk. Brenda is also actively involved in providing research insights to support our customers, developing content for thought leadership in the region and promoting our solutions in globally.
Throughout her time at Moody's, she participated in initiatives that involved developing award winning risk models. In addition, Brenda led numerous consultancy projects with banks, fintech, regulators and investment firms worldwide, focusing on stress testing and model design.
Before joining Moody's Analytics in 2015, Brenda worked for SITA in Prague as a Treasury analyst responsible for the cash flow, currency risk management and bank relationship. In addition, she worked as a Senior Transfer Pricing consultant for EY in Mexico. Furthermore, she worked in the Mexican Ministry of Finance focusing on the liability management of the public debt in local and international markets.
Brenda holds a BA in Economics from Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, and MA degree in Economics and Finance with honors from Charles University in Prague. Currently she is pursuing a PhD in Accounting and Financial Management at University of Reading in the U.K.