Q1 2024 CRE Quarterly Economic Briefing
The Pros and Cons of a Strong Economy for CRE
- Consumers keep spending, the labor market remains tight, but that comes with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates, something CRE is having a difficult time handling.
- Rent and occupancy growth was generally positive in Q1, albeit muted. Multifamily demand remains just strong enough to produce rent growth even in the face of a record pipeline of supply. Retail and Industrial performance is running slightly below average, but the national number hides some very strong property and location specific growth. Office vacancies continue to rise as the remote work trial and error period continues; although suburban and emerging metro growth is evident in the data.
- Capital market activity is showing very subtle signs of loosening, but the additional uncertainty brought on by recent strong economic and inflation data, may cause further caution and separation among buyers and sellers.
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SpeakersMatt Reidy Director-Economic Research Moody's
Luis Amador General Manager-Commercial Real Estate Moody's
Thomas LaSalvia, PhD Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics Moody's
Lu Chen Director of Housing Research Moody's
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Matt Reidy, CFA is a Director of CRE Economics on the CRE Thought Leadership team at Moody’s Analytics. Matt is involved in research across CRE property types with expertise in the areas of real estate capital markets, multifamily, and affordable housing. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Matt spent 17 years in various CRE Investment roles in the insurance industry, most recently as VP of Real Estate Investment Strategy, Risk Management & Analytics for a large midwestern life insurer. His years as a practitioner bring a unique, real world experienced viewpoint to the Thought Leadership team. Matt holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, an MBA from The Ohio State University, and a Bachelor’s in Accounting from University of Cincinnati.
Thomas P LaSalvia, Ph.D. is the Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics. Thomas, a former professor, brings his pedagogical prowess to his extensive research into the marketplace, with a specific focus on the multifamily sector. His work is frequently published in a variety of periodicals, and he spends a vast amount of time presenting his findings to a variety of industry and academic professionals. Prior to joining Moody's Analytics, he served in a consulting role for the firm while teaching classes in foundational economics and urban economics at The College of William & Mary.
Lu Chen is a Senior Economist at Moody’s Analytics specializing in Commercial Real Estate. She has worked in the commercial real estate industry in customer success capacity for over a decade. Lu has deep knowledge in urban economics and credit risk, with special focus on Texas market performance, senior housing, and urban migration.