Europe's Economy in the Trump Era
The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president has intensified several challenges for Europe, including economic instability and geopolitical tensions. Given the EU’s heavy reliance on trade, the looming threat of a tariff war with the U.S. could further weaken the bloc’s economic position. Additionally, Trump’s stance on NATO and the Russia-Ukraine conflict necessitates a rethinking of Europe’s geopolitical strategy and increased defense spending.
Join Gaurav Ganguly, Senior Director Economic Research, and the team of EMEA economists, as they offer insights into Europe’s outlook and these pressing questions:
- Has a Trump presidency raised the risks of a recession in Europe?
- Should the ECB shift gears and turn more dovish?
- Can Germany’s struggling automotive industry survive a tariff war with the U.S.?
- What is the likelihood that cyclical weakness will become structural?
- Can EU countries get serious about defense given the lack of fiscal space?
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SpeakersGaurav Ganguly Head of EMEA Economics Moody's Analytics
Kamil Kovar Associate Director - Senior Economist Moody's Analytics
Barbara Teixeira Araujo Economist Moody's Analytics
Brittany Merollo Economist Moody's Analytics
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Dr. Gaurav Ganguly is the Chief European Economist and Head of the Climate Change Group at Moodys Analytics. Gaurav is an expert on a number of international economies having spent several years analysing and commenting on countries across Europe, Asia and the Americas. Gaurav has previously worked in financial services, consulting and audit. He was a research fellow at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College in London, where he developed a framework for using climate scenarios within financial institutions. He currently teaches Environmental Economics at Imperial College. He did his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford.
Barbara Teixeira Araujo is an assistant director and economist at the Moody's Analytics Prague office. She is responsible for providing research and analysis on key European economies. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Barbara worked at the economic research department of Natixis in Paris. Her work experience includes macroeconomic forecasting and real-time economic coverage. She holds a master’s degree in international economics and a BSc in financial engineering from Paris-Dauphine University.
Brittany Merollo is an assistant director and economist at Moody’s Analytics. She covers the economies of France, Slovenia, Nevada, and several U.S. metro areas. She is involved in the development and improvement of the global forecast model and manages the global subnational forecasts. Brittany received her master’s degree in economic history from the London School of Economics and her bachelor’s degree in economics from Gettysburg College.