Q3 2024 CRE Quarterly Economic Briefing: Better, but not quite out of the woods
Our forecasts have proven correct at this point. Economic and interest rate clarity are opening capital markets. Transaction activity is slowly improving, and even banks are warming up to the lending market again. The industry will now focus on tracking the individual assets and loans likely to fall in distress due to obsolescence or over-levered. Given the space market is still slightly out of balance, income growth will continue to be slightly below average, hindering some of the refinancing efforts, even in a soft or no landing economy.
Our CRE economists will cover the below topics and more, as they walk through a comprehensive overview of the commercial real estate industry:
- National-level trends and macroeconomic dynamics
- Housing affordability challenges
- Industrial sector adjustments
- Downtown revitalization
- CRE transaction volume and pricing
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SpeakersThomas LaSalvia, PhD Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics Moody's Analytics
Kevin Fagan Senior Director, Head of CRE Economic Analysis Moody's Analytics
Lu Chen Director of Housing Research Moody's Analytics
Ermengarde Jabir, PhD Director of Economic Research Moody's Analytics
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Thomas P LaSalvia, Ph.D. is the Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics. Thomas, a former professor, brings his pedagogical prowess to his extensive research into the marketplace, with a specific focus on the multifamily sector. His work is frequently published in a variety of periodicals, and he spends a vast amount of time presenting his findings to a variety of industry and academic professionals. Prior to joining Moody's Analytics, he served in a consulting role for the firm while teaching classes in foundational economics and urban economics at The College of William & Mary.
Kevin is a senior director and Head of CRE Economic Analysis at Moody’s, responsible for research, thought leadership and strategic initiatives for the Moody's CRE group, with a focus on capital markets and climate risks. He’s the industry member chair of the Commercial Real Estate Finance Council ESG and Sustainability Initiative. He was formerly director of CRE and CMBS research in the Moody’s Investors Service. Prior to joining Moody’s, Kevin held CRE research roles at ING Clarion and Jones Lang LaSalle. He also practiced as a structural engineer, designing large scale commercial buildings in California. Kevin holds an MS from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a BS from the University of Texas at Austin.
Lu Chen is a Senior Economist at Moody’s Analytics specializing in Commercial Real Estate. She has worked in the commercial real estate industry in customer success capacity for over a decade. Lu has deep knowledge in urban economics and credit risk, with special focus on Texas market performance, senior housing, and urban migration.
Ermengarde Jabir PhD is a Senior Economist at Moody’s Analytics, specializing in commercial real estate. Her research interests include the intersection of REITs and the macroeconomy and she has been published in academic journals as well as industry publications. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, she held positions in various government agencies as well as in the private sector.