Europe and the Trade War
Tariffs are a lose-lose for the global economy, and Europe is particularly at risk given its heavy reliance on trade, its political fragmentation and the fact that its battered economy was rather fragile coming into the trade war. Unsurprisingly, confidence has plummeted and uncertainty has surged to unprecedented levels—and unfortunately, there is little hope that much clarity will emerge any time soon.
The question in everyone’s mind is: Will Europe’s economy crack under the weight of tariffs? How elevated are recession risks?
Join Gaurav Ganguly, Senior Director of Economic Research, alongside the EMEA economists, for an in-depth webinar exploring Europe’s economic outlook.
Key topics include:
- What is behind the solid first-quarter GDP numbers? Will this strength spill over into the rest of the year?
- How significant is the effect of frontloading by U.S. importers?
- When can we expect the effects of tariffs to show up in the hard data?
- Is inflation finally under control? Does this mean that the European Central Bank reached the end of its tightening cycle?
- How is Germany positioned to navigate the tariff war? Will higher infrastructure and defence spending fully offset the blow from tariffs?
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SpeakersGaurav Ganguly Head of International Economics Moody's Analytics
Kamil Kovar Associate Director - Senior Economist Moody's Analytics
Barbara Teixeira Araujo Associate Director - Senior Economist Moody's Analytics
Andrew Hunter Associate Director, Senior Economist (EMEA) Moody's Analytics
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Dr. Gaurav Ganguly is Head of International Economics at Moody’s Analytics, where he heads economic research for Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. His research interests include international economics, geopolitics and climate change. Together with his research group, he focuses on the key risks facing the global economy and the ways in which these might manifest. His economic scenarios, forecasts and analysis are used by financial institutions, governments and companies to actively manage risks. He is a well-known public speaker and frequently comments on economic issues across and appears in the media. Based in London, he has taught at various Universities in the UK and held visiting academic positions, including a research fellowship at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College. Gaurav obtained his Master’s degree and a doctorate in Economics from the University of Oxford.
Barbara Teixeira Araujo is an assistant director and economist at the Moody's Analytics Prague office. She is responsible for providing research and analysis on key European economies. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Barbara worked at the economic research department of Natixis in Paris. Her work experience includes macroeconomic forecasting and real-time economic coverage. She holds a master’s degree in international economics and a BSc in financial engineering from Paris-Dauphine University.
Andrew Hunter is an associate director and senior economist at Moody’s Analytics based in Edinburgh, Scotland. He covers the U.K. and other European economies and helps to oversee written research across the EMEA region. Andrew has more than a decade’s experience in macroeconomic research and previously worked for Capital Economics, primarily covering the U.S. economy. He holds a master’s degree in economic history from the London School of Economics and a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of St Andrews.