U.S. Economic Outlook: Under Unprecedented Uncertainty
The U.S. economy is navigating unprecedented uncertainty. Growth is weak, stagflation pressures are rising, and policy uncertainties add to the challenge. While a recession isn’t our baseline outlook, the risks are mounting. Join us as we explore what’s driving the slowdown, what policymakers might do next, and what could still turn the tide.
- The economy is on the precipice of a recession. Growth is soft, and it wouldn’t take much to push it over the edge.
- We are in a jobs recession. Labor market conditions are weak with slowing growth, limited job gains, falling participation, and a shrinking labor force.
- Interest rates will normalize as the Fed balances its dual mandate. Monetary policy remains modestly restrictive amid inflation uncertainty, while long-term rates reflect inflation and debt concerns.
- Productivity growth remains the primary driver of long-term growth. AI usage has tripled, but broad industry adoption and its full impact are expected to unfold later in the decade.
- The economy could outperform if tariffs ease, immigration policy loosens, or fiscal stimulus increases.
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SpeakersMark Zandi Chief Economist Moody's Analytics
Cris deRitis Deputy Chief Economist Moody's Analytics
Marisa DiNatale Senior Director, Head of Global Forecasting Moody's Analytics
Dante DeAntonio Sr. Director, Economic Research Moody's Analytics
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Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi cofounded Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005.
Dr. Zandi is on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, is the lead director of PolicyMap, a data visualization and analytics company used by policymakers and commercial businesses, and is a director of the Coleridge Initiative, a nonprofit that facilitates the exchange of data across governments.
He is a trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public. Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress and conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels.
Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which assesses the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by The New York Times as the “clearest guide” to the financial crisis. Dr. Zandi is host of the Inside Economics podcast.
Dr. Zandi earned his BS from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania.
Cristian deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, specializes in assessing the economy’s impact on household finance, housing, credit markets and public policy. Named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling, he created loss forecasting and stress testing systems for financial institutions. He joined Moody’s in 2008, after serving as a director with Fannie Mae. He also was an adjunct professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.
Marisa DiNatale is a Senior Director and Head of Global Forecasting at Moody’s. Marisa oversees all forecasting and publication operations in the Economics group within Predictive Analytics at Moody’s. Her areas of specialization and research are U.S. labor markets, household balance sheets and credit, and international economics. She is a cohost of the Moody’s weekly podcast “Inside Economics”. Marisa started her career as a labor economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. She holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University and a bachelor’s degree in International Relations from Boston University.
Dante DeAntonio is a senior director at Moody’s Analytics. He manages and regularly contributes to Economic View. Dante specializes in U.S. macroeconomics, with a focus on the labor market and regional economics. Dante regularly presents to clients and conferences, and has been featured in a number of media outlets. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, he worked as an economist in the Current Employment Statistics program at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dante is also an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. Previously, he was an adjunct in the Economics Department at Lehigh University. He holds a master’s degree and PhD in economics from Lehigh University and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Pennsylvania State University.