European Economic Outlook: The New Deal
As Europe moves through 2025, economic recovery remains fragile. While the newly inked U.S.-EU trade deal introduces a measure of certainty to transatlantic relations, significant uncertainties persist—ranging from the conditionalities attached to the deal itself to broader geopolitical and structural challenges. On the upside, manufacturing production has been recovering following several years of recession, boosted by pre-tariff frontloading, fiscal stimulus in Germany and a broad-based push to raise defence spending across Europe. However, this contrasts with weakening confidence in the euro zone's outsize services sector, and softening prospects for consumer spending. Adding insult to injury, France’s political turbulence and fiscal outlook raise questions about stability within one of Europe’s key economies.
Join the European economics team at Moody’s as they explore critical themes shaping Europe’s outlook, including:
- How will the U.S.-EU trade deal impact growth and economic activity across Europe?
- Can Europe’s manufacturing recovery offset deepening concerns in its outsized services sector?
- Is the ECB’s inflation stabilization sustainable, and what’s next for monetary policy?
- How will France’s political crisis and fiscal challenges affect its growth trajectory?
- What are the key risks to Europe’s fragile recovery—and how likely is a recession?
This webinar will provide expert insights into Europe’s uncertain path forward amid shifting global dynamics.
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SpeakersGaurav Ganguly Head of International Economics Moody's Analytics
Kamil Kovar Associate Director - Senior Economist Moody's Analytics
Barbara Teixeira Araujo Associate Director - Senior Economist Moody's Analytics
Brittany Merollo Economist Moody's Analytics
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Dr. Gaurav Ganguly is Head of International Economics at Moody’s Analytics, where he heads economic research for Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. His research interests include international economics, geopolitics and climate change. Together with his research group, he focuses on the key risks facing the global economy and the ways in which these might manifest. His economic scenarios, forecasts and analysis are used by financial institutions, governments and companies to actively manage risks. He is a well-known public speaker and frequently comments on economic issues across and appears in the media. Based in London, he has taught at various Universities in the UK and held visiting academic positions, including a research fellowship at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College. Gaurav obtained his Master’s degree and a doctorate in Economics from the University of Oxford.
Barbara Teixeira Araujo is an assistant director and economist at the Moody's Analytics Prague office. She is responsible for providing research and analysis on key European economies. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Barbara worked at the economic research department of Natixis in Paris. Her work experience includes macroeconomic forecasting and real-time economic coverage. She holds a master’s degree in international economics and a BSc in financial engineering from Paris-Dauphine University.
Brittany Merollo is an assistant director and economist at Moody’s Analytics. She covers the economies of France, Slovenia, Nevada, and several U.S. metro areas. She is involved in the development and improvement of the global forecast model and manages the global subnational forecasts. Brittany received her master’s degree in economic history from the London School of Economics and her bachelor’s degree in economics from Gettysburg College.