Deep Dive: Africa
Global uncertainty poses downside risks to otherwise stabilising credit fundamentals
Fiscal consolidation efforts will support debt reduction for African sovereigns. Financing conditions will improve but remain more difficult than in the past, and the credit risks from large upcoming maturities and weakened debt affordability persist. The US tariffs will engender a more challenging macroeconomic outlook and greater uncertainty around asset prices and interest rates.
Discussion Topics:
- What are the implications of the tariffs and the rapidly changing US trade policy for African sovereigns and private sector entities?
- What is the outlook for South Africa amid domestic political disagreement and tensions with the US?
- What is the likely liquidity evolution for Africa’s commodity exporters amid softening demand and prices, particularly Angola?
- What is the extent of potential improvement in the credit profiles of Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya?
Speakers
Lucie Villa
Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk
Moody's Ratings
Mik Kabeya
Senior Vice President - Ratings
Moody's Ratings
Constantinos Kypreos
Senior Vice President - Ratings
Moody's Ratings
Artem Frolov
Vice President - Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance
Moody's Ratings
Iker Ballestero Barrutia
Analyst, Corporate Finance
Moody's Ratings
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Lucie oversees Sovereign Ratings in Africa and is the lead analyst for several sovereigns and supranational issuers in the region. Prior to that, she has covered a range of European sovereign credits, spanning both advanced and emerging markets, as well as subsovereign credits. Prior to joining Moody’s in 2007, Lucie spent two years at the French Treasury in the division responsible for projections and analyses of France’s government finances. Lucie holds a postgraduate degree in Probability and Statistics and a Master’s degree in Economics.
Mik Kabeya is a Senior Vice President - Ratings in the Financial Institutions Group, based in London. Mik covers financial institutions across the African continent. Prior to relocating to London, Mik was based in Dubai where he covered financial institutions based in the Middle East. Before joining Moody’s, Mik worked at Fullerton Financial Holdings and at BNP Paribas.
Constantinos is a Senior Vice President and leads a team of analysts covering banks in Africa, the Middle East and the Balkans.
Since joining Moody’s Limassol-based banking team in 2005, Constantinos has followed banks as lead analyst in South Africa, Egypt, Ghana, Israel, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. He has authored numerous articles covering the African and Balkan banking systems and is a regular speaker at regional conferences.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Constantinos worked for PricewaterhouseCoopers in London, both in audit and advisory. He holds a BSs in Economics from Queen Mary, London University and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales.
Artem Frolov is a Vice President – Senior Analyst in the Dubai office, covering a portfolio of mining companies in South Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and real estate companies in Saudi Arabia.
Artem joined Moody’s in 2011 in Moscow where he at different times covered several portfolios of Russian and CIS corporates in different sectors, primarily steel and mining, and oil and gas.
Prior to joining Moody’s, he had worked for Fitch Ratings and several large banks in Moscow. Artem holds a PhD in Economics from the Finance Academy in Moscow.
Iker is an Analyst in the Moody’s EMEA Corporate Finance Group based in Dubai. He covers a diversified industry portfolio, with exposure in Turkey, Africa, and the Middle East.
He joined Moody’s Dubai office in 2022, and previously worked as an associate analyst in the Moody’s London office covering the leveraged finance industry with exposure to Business and Consumer Services, Healthcare, Airlines and Aerospace & Defense. Before that, he spent 2 years working in the consulting industry in Spain.
Iker holds a Masters Degree in Investment Management from Henley Business School. He also holds a BSc in Business Management from the University of Deusto and is a CFA charterholder since 2018.