US Housing & Housing Finance Outlook
9 Sectors in 60 minutes
Join Moody's Investors Service analysts for a US Housing Outlook webinar on December 9th. The webinar discussion will focus on the 2022 outlooks of 9 sectors from mortgage companies and insurers, to homebuilders, RMBS/CMBS, HFAs, and beyond.
Join Moody's Investors Service analysts for a US Housing Outlook webinar on December 9th. The webinar discussion will focus on the 2022 outlooks of 9 sectors from mortgage companies and insurers, to homebuilders, RMBS/CMBS, HFAs, and beyond.
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Agenda13.00 - 13.20EST
Mortgage companies and banks, mortgage insurers, RMBS
- Non-Bank mortgage companies will face profitability pressures as mortgage volumes decline
- Residential mortgage net charge-offs will rise very modestly for Fannie and Freddie as well as for banks
- Mortgage insurers will benefit from favorable economic conditions, good capitalization, lower delinquency rates and solid profitability
- Relaxing credit will somewhat weaken new RMBS collateral; losses in outstanding RMBS will rise but remain low
13.20 - 13.40ESTHomebuilders, retail, brokers and information companies
- Continued solid single-family home demand, supported by strong fundamentals, will benefit homebuilders, however growth will moderate
- Home improvement’s operating performance stabilizes as outsized demand eases and costs, supply chain pressures rise
- Expect moderating but still robust conditions for brokers in 2022, as existing home sales will fall from 2021’s level but remain above pre-COVID levels
13.40 - 14.00ESTREITs, CMBS, Public Finance (HFAs)
- Housing REITs will continue to benefit from faster than expected rental growth rates, supported by strong demand, shortage of inventory and geographic migration
- As new supply continues to come on line, rental rates for multifamily properties within CMBS will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in 2021
- Expect strong HFA multifamily performance and recovery of single-family portfolios
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SpeakersRachael McDonald Associate Managing Director - Public Finance Housing Moody's Ratings
Griselda Bisono Vice President - Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Moody's Ratings
Yehudah Forster Senior Vice President, US RMBS Moody's Investors Service
Philip Kibel Associate Managing Director Moody's Investors Service
Christina Boni Senior Vice President, Retail, Corporate Finance Moody's Ratings
Edmond DeForest Senior Vice President, Business & Consumer Services, Corporate Finance Moody's Ratings
Bob Garofalo Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Insurance Moody's Investors Service
Harshad Mehta Vice President-Senior Analyst, CMBS, Structured Finance Moody's Investors Service
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Bob is a Vice President- Senior Credit Officer on the Financial Institutions Group of Moody's Investors Service. He is responsible for a portfolio of U.S. ratings within the Life Insurance Group.
Prior to joining Moody's in 2016, Bob worked for over ten years at Swiss Re where he held various roles including Senior Vice President and Head of Business Development for Swiss Re Life & Health North America. In addition, he served as a Vice President, Head of Origination in Admin Re US covering the US and Canadian markets.
Bob also worked for AM Best as a Managing Senior Financial Analyst, where he rated emerging and complex financial institutions and provided credit analysis coverage on life insurance-based financial services organizations and retirement savings companies. In addition, Bob worked at Mutual of New York in various roles including Corporate Actuarial and Reinsurance
Bob has an MBA Corporate Finance from Fairleigh Dickinson University and a BA in Economics from the University of South Florida. Bob also has the Fellow of Life Management Institute (FLMI) designation from LOMA.
Luisa De Gaetano leads the North American Real Estate and Gaming team in the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service, overseeing ratings and research of approximately 140 investment grade and high yield issuers.
Luisa joined Moody’s in 2005, and previously worked in the Structured Finance Group, where she managed new ratings and surveillance teams across all ABS and RMBS sectors, as well as the assessments team, and served as an editor of Moody’s monthly sector newsletters. Luisa has also chaired CLO committees. She is an active member of the Women’s Business Resource Group and has been serving on the Lien-in sub-committee for several years.
Prior to Moody’s, Luisa worked in corporate strategy at McDonald's Corp, and in investment banking at Goldman Sachs.
Luisa volunteers as treasurer of the Board of Trustees of Rivendell School, an inclusive preschool in Brooklyn, NY. She holds an undergraduate degree in economics from LUISS University in Rome and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
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Yehudah Forster is a Senior Vice President / Manager on Moody’s Investors Service’s U.S. residential mortgage-backed securitizations (RMBS) ratings team. Yehudah chairs rating committees, performs credit and legal risk analysis on RMBS and other structured finance products, and manages several RMBS analysts. Yehudah is an author of numerous special comments, articles and rating methodologies, often focusing on the intersection between legal and regulatory issues and credit. He has received 12 Moody’s Structured Finance Research Awards for his publications. Prior to joining Moody’s in 2007, Mr. Forster was co-general counsel at a boutique RMBS issuer/broker- dealer, and prior to that, an associate in Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP’s Capital Markets Group. Mr. Forster is a graduate of New York University School of Law and Emory University, and is a member of the New York Bar
Luisa De Gaetano leads the North American Real Estate and Gaming team in the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service, overseeing ratings and research of approximately 140 investment grade and high yield issuers.
Luisa joined Moody’s in 2005, and previously worked in the Structured Finance Group, where she managed new ratings and surveillance teams across all ABS and RMBS sectors, as well as the assessments team, and served as an editor of Moody’s monthly sector newsletters. Luisa has also chaired CLO committees. She is an active member of the Women’s Business Resource Group and has been serving on the Lien-in sub-committee for several years.
Prior to Moody’s, Luisa worked in corporate strategy at McDonald's Corp, and in investment banking at Goldman Sachs.
Luisa volunteers as treasurer of the Board of Trustees of Rivendell School, an inclusive preschool in Brooklyn, NY. She holds an undergraduate degree in economics from LUISS University in Rome and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
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Griselda Bisono is a Vice President – Senior Analyst in Moody’s Corporate Finance Group (CFG). She joined Moody’s Homebuilding team in 2018 and has lead analyst responsibility for a portfolio of homebuilding and building products companies. In addition to regularly authoring industry research, Griselda leads outreach and engagement efforts for the Homebuilding team and frequently participates in high-profile events including investor roundtables, webinars, third-party conferences and media engagements.
Griselda represents the CFG Homebuilding team in Moody’s US Cross-Sector Housing and Housing Finance Group, which focuses on the development of topical cross-sector research and investor outreach. She also contributes her expertise to Moody’s Homebuilding MIND group, which aims to foster thought leadership and develop cross-regional research.
Previously, Griselda was a member of the REIT team for 13 years where she covered a portfolio of REITs and other commercial property firms in a variety of real estate subsectors within the US, Canada and Latin America. She also previously held a variety of roles in Moody’s Finance group.
Griselda holds a B.A. in Accounting from St. Joseph’s University and an M.B.A. from Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business. She is also fluent in English and Spanish.
Christina Boni is a Senior Vice President with Moody’s Investors Service, and is responsible for a portfolio of investment grade and speculative grade companies in the retail sector. Prior to joining Moody’s in January 2016, Christina was a Managing
Director for Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) focusing on leveraged retailers. From 2008-2009, Christina was a Portfolio Manager at Fridson Investment Advisors, a credit hedge fund. In addition, Christina was a sell-side leverage finance analyst at Credit
Suisse (CS) and Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette, which was acquired by CS in 2000. She was voted by clients to the Institutional Investor Fixed Income team for the Retail sector for seven consecutive years. She also was appointed to the Institutional
Investor Fixed Income team for her work in the Supermarket and Food and Beverage sector. In addition, Christina worked at the Walt Disney Company as a Senior Analyst within their Strategic Planning Group. Christina holds a B.S. in Economics from the
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a M.B.A from the Harvard Business School.
Ed DeForest is a Senior Vice President on the Technology and Services team. Ed covers a portfolio of services and software companies in a range of verticals.
Ed joined Moody’s in February, 2012 from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he shared responsibility for leading a team of examiners reviewing the wholesale loan portfolios of the 10 largest New York-based banks. Prior to his work at the Fed, Ed was a managing director with D.B. Zwirn, where he was the global head of asset management. While there, Ed managed the credit and illiquid risk department, with a portfolio of about $5 billion of assets under management. Ed also worked for 19 years at JPMorgan Chase, in both the credit and lending and the investment banking departments, covering a range of companies in the Technology, Telecommunications, Cable TV, Publishing and Broadcasting sectors. Ed has a B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.B.A. is from Carnegie Mellon University
Harshad Mehta is a vice president and senior analyst with Moody’s CMBS ratings group. She leads the analytical process for new conduit and SASB transactions, and in this capacity is responsible for evaluating CMBS deal-level structure, loan-level structure and the properties underlying a transaction, and for the production of presale reports and press releases detailing Moody’s position, ratings rationale and rating methodology. Prior to joining Moody’s, Ms. Mehta held investment banking roles at JPMorgan and Houlihan Lokey. She also worked as an asset manager for work force housing in New York City and as a professional architect in the affordable housing and commercial property spheres in India. Ms. Mehta holds an M.P.S. in commercial real estate development and finance from Cornell University and a B.Arch. in architecture from the Institute of Environmental Design.
Luisa De Gaetano leads the North American Real Estate and Gaming team in the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service, overseeing ratings and research of approximately 140 investment grade and high yield issuers.
Luisa joined Moody’s in 2005, and previously worked in the Structured Finance Group, where she managed new ratings and surveillance teams across all ABS and RMBS sectors, as well as the assessments team, and served as an editor of Moody’s monthly sector newsletters. Luisa has also chaired CLO committees. She is an active member of the Women’s Business Resource Group and has been serving on the Lien-in sub-committee for several years.
Prior to Moody’s, Luisa worked in corporate strategy at McDonald's Corp, and in investment banking at Goldman Sachs.
Luisa volunteers as treasurer of the Board of Trustees of Rivendell School, an inclusive preschool in Brooklyn, NY. She holds an undergraduate degree in economics from LUISS University in Rome and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
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Philip M. Kibel is an Associate Managing Director in the CRE-REIT team at Moody’s Investors Service, where he manages a team that focuses on the ratings of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real estate operating companies (REOCs). The team
rates issuers from Canada through Latin America.
Prior to joining Moody’s, he was a Vice President with W. P. Carey & Co. LLC (WPC), a publicly traded real estate investment company that specializes in corporate real estate financing using the corporate net-lease, or sale-leaseback structure. Philip was previously associated with Goldman, Sachs & Co., where he researched and implemented estate tax planning for the general partners of Goldman, Sachs and created trusts to provide heirs with financial security. In addition, he published internal reports summarizing the estate and gift tax laws of Japan, Hong-Kong and Germany.
Philip, a New York Certified Public Accountant, is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. He received a BS in Accounting from Lehigh University and also holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia Business School.
Rachael Royal McDonald is an Associate Managing Director leading the Housing Finance, State Revolving Funds and Municipal Supported Products Teams. Prior to this role, Rachael spent 16 years as a lead analyst covering the State Housing Finance Agency, State Revolving Fund and Military Housing sectors. Prior to joining Moody’s, Rachael worked for Deloitte Consulting and The Advisory Board Company. Rachael holds an MBA and a Masters in Social Work from Columbia University and a BA from Brown University.
Rachael Royal McDonald is an Associate Managing Director leading the Housing Finance, State Revolving Funds and Municipal Supported Products Teams. Prior to this role, Rachael spent 16 years as a lead analyst covering the State Housing Finance Agency, State Revolving Fund and Military Housing sectors. Prior to joining Moody’s, Rachael worked for Deloitte Consulting and The Advisory Board Company. Rachael holds an MBA and a Masters in Social Work from Columbia University and a BA from Brown University.
Griselda Bisono is a Vice President – Senior Analyst in Moody’s Corporate Finance Group (CFG). She joined Moody’s Homebuilding team in 2018 and has lead analyst responsibility for a portfolio of homebuilding and building products companies. In addition to regularly authoring industry research, Griselda leads outreach and engagement efforts for the Homebuilding team and frequently participates in high-profile events including investor roundtables, webinars, third-party conferences and media engagements.
Griselda represents the CFG Homebuilding team in Moody’s US Cross-Sector Housing and Housing Finance Group, which focuses on the development of topical cross-sector research and investor outreach. She also contributes her expertise to Moody’s Homebuilding MIND group, which aims to foster thought leadership and develop cross-regional research.
Previously, Griselda was a member of the REIT team for 13 years where she covered a portfolio of REITs and other commercial property firms in a variety of real estate subsectors within the US, Canada and Latin America. She also previously held a variety of roles in Moody’s Finance group.
Griselda holds a B.A. in Accounting from St. Joseph’s University and an M.B.A. from Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business. She is also fluent in English and Spanish.
Yehudah Forster is a Senior Vice President / Manager on Moody’s Investors Service’s U.S. residential mortgage-backed securitizations (RMBS) ratings team. Yehudah chairs rating committees, performs credit and legal risk analysis on RMBS and other structured finance products, and manages several RMBS analysts. Yehudah is an author of numerous special comments, articles and rating methodologies, often focusing on the intersection between legal and regulatory issues and credit. He has received 12 Moody’s Structured Finance Research Awards for his publications. Prior to joining Moody’s in 2007, Mr. Forster was co-general counsel at a boutique RMBS issuer/broker- dealer, and prior to that, an associate in Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP’s Capital Markets Group. Mr. Forster is a graduate of New York University School of Law and Emory University, and is a member of the New York Bar
Philip M. Kibel is an Associate Managing Director in the CRE-REIT team at Moody’s Investors Service, where he manages a team that focuses on the ratings of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real estate operating companies (REOCs). The team
rates issuers from Canada through Latin America.
Prior to joining Moody’s, he was a Vice President with W. P. Carey & Co. LLC (WPC), a publicly traded real estate investment company that specializes in corporate real estate financing using the corporate net-lease, or sale-leaseback structure. Philip was previously associated with Goldman, Sachs & Co., where he researched and implemented estate tax planning for the general partners of Goldman, Sachs and created trusts to provide heirs with financial security. In addition, he published internal reports summarizing the estate and gift tax laws of Japan, Hong-Kong and Germany.
Philip, a New York Certified Public Accountant, is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. He received a BS in Accounting from Lehigh University and also holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia Business School.
Christina Boni is a Senior Vice President with Moody’s Investors Service, and is responsible for a portfolio of investment grade and speculative grade companies in the retail sector. Prior to joining Moody’s in January 2016, Christina was a Managing
Director for Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) focusing on leveraged retailers. From 2008-2009, Christina was a Portfolio Manager at Fridson Investment Advisors, a credit hedge fund. In addition, Christina was a sell-side leverage finance analyst at Credit
Suisse (CS) and Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette, which was acquired by CS in 2000. She was voted by clients to the Institutional Investor Fixed Income team for the Retail sector for seven consecutive years. She also was appointed to the Institutional
Investor Fixed Income team for her work in the Supermarket and Food and Beverage sector. In addition, Christina worked at the Walt Disney Company as a Senior Analyst within their Strategic Planning Group. Christina holds a B.S. in Economics from the
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a M.B.A from the Harvard Business School.
Ed DeForest is a Senior Vice President on the Technology and Services team. Ed covers a portfolio of services and software companies in a range of verticals.
Ed joined Moody’s in February, 2012 from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he shared responsibility for leading a team of examiners reviewing the wholesale loan portfolios of the 10 largest New York-based banks. Prior to his work at the Fed, Ed was a managing director with D.B. Zwirn, where he was the global head of asset management. While there, Ed managed the credit and illiquid risk department, with a portfolio of about $5 billion of assets under management. Ed also worked for 19 years at JPMorgan Chase, in both the credit and lending and the investment banking departments, covering a range of companies in the Technology, Telecommunications, Cable TV, Publishing and Broadcasting sectors. Ed has a B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.B.A. is from Carnegie Mellon University
Bob is a Vice President- Senior Credit Officer on the Financial Institutions Group of Moody's Investors Service. He is responsible for a portfolio of U.S. ratings within the Life Insurance Group.
Prior to joining Moody's in 2016, Bob worked for over ten years at Swiss Re where he held various roles including Senior Vice President and Head of Business Development for Swiss Re Life & Health North America. In addition, he served as a Vice President, Head of Origination in Admin Re US covering the US and Canadian markets.
Bob also worked for AM Best as a Managing Senior Financial Analyst, where he rated emerging and complex financial institutions and provided credit analysis coverage on life insurance-based financial services organizations and retirement savings companies. In addition, Bob worked at Mutual of New York in various roles including Corporate Actuarial and Reinsurance
Bob has an MBA Corporate Finance from Fairleigh Dickinson University and a BA in Economics from the University of South Florida. Bob also has the Fellow of Life Management Institute (FLMI) designation from LOMA.
Harshad Mehta is a vice president and senior analyst with Moody’s CMBS ratings group. She leads the analytical process for new conduit and SASB transactions, and in this capacity is responsible for evaluating CMBS deal-level structure, loan-level structure and the properties underlying a transaction, and for the production of presale reports and press releases detailing Moody’s position, ratings rationale and rating methodology. Prior to joining Moody’s, Ms. Mehta held investment banking roles at JPMorgan and Houlihan Lokey. She also worked as an asset manager for work force housing in New York City and as a professional architect in the affordable housing and commercial property spheres in India. Ms. Mehta holds an M.P.S. in commercial real estate development and finance from Cornell University and a B.Arch. in architecture from the Institute of Environmental Design.