Beneath the Calm: Moody's on U.S. Credit Risk in 2026-2027
Default rates are trending down, but is the credit market actually improving? This webinar explores why headline statistics mask real dispersion - from AI disruption exposure to the private credit borrowers most vulnerable to refinancing pressure - and what credit professionals should watch for next.
What you'll learn:
- Why declining default rates may not tell the full story about corporate credit conditions.
- Which sectors face the greatest credit, refinancing, and liquidity challenges ahead.
- How AI disruption is creating new potential winners and losers from a credit perspective.
- Do media headlines match the data trendiness in private credit?
- The key indicators credit professionals should monitor to stay ahead of changing market conditions.
Whether you're navigating market uncertainty or assessing emerging risks, you'll leave with a clearer view of where opportunities and challenges may be developing beneath the surface.
Speakers
David Hamilton
Managing Director, Head of Asset Management Research
Moody's Analytics
Nicole Lawrence
Managing Director, Asset Management Strategy
Moody's Analytics
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David Hamilton is Managing Director, Head of Asset Management Research, based in New York. He has held various senior positions in both Moody’s Ratings and Moody’s Analytics over his 27-year career with Moody's. Mr. Hamilton has worked across different asset classes including corporates, high-yield, financial institutions, sovereigns, public finance, structured finance, and digital assets, and in diverse leadership roles in quantitative research, credit policy, and business development in the US and Asia. Prior to joining Moody’s in 1997, Mr. Hamilton worked in the Regional Economics group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Nicole Lawrence is Managing Director, Asset Management Strategy, leading global commercial and market strategy. She has over 25 years of experience in credit markets, with expertise in structured assets, including CLOs, as well as public, private, and esoteric asset-backed securities.
Most recently, Nicole served as Senior Director, Private Credit Strategist, where she helped shape Moody’s Asset Management strategy and expand its private credit presence. Prior to joining Moody’s, she held various roles at fintech company T-REX and several insurance asset managers, including over 11 years at Prudential PLC’s U.S. subsidiary, PPM America, where she most notably served as Vice President responsible for investments across several structured asset classes. She began her career as a structured analyst at Moody’s Ratings.
Nicole holds a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Notre Dame and a Master’s in Public Policy from the University of Chicago.