Beneath the Calm: Moody's on U.S. Credit Risk in 2026-2027
Default rates are trending down, but is the credit market actually improving? This webinar explores why headline statistics mask real dispersion - from AI disruption exposure to the private credit borrowers most vulnerable to refinancing pressure - and what credit professionals should watch for next.
What you'll learn:
- Why declining default rates may not tell the full story about corporate credit conditions.
- Which sectors face the greatest credit, refinancing, and liquidity challenges ahead.
- How AI disruption is creating new potential winners and losers from a credit perspective.
- Do media headlines match the data trendiness in private credit?
- The key indicators credit professionals should monitor to stay ahead of changing market conditions.
Whether you're navigating market uncertainty or assessing emerging risks, you'll leave with a clearer view of where opportunities and challenges may be developing beneath the surface.
Speakers
David Hamilton
Managing Director, Head of Asset Management Research
Moody's
Nicole Lawrence
Managing Director, Asset Management Strategy
Moody's
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David Hamilton is Managing Director, Head of Asset Management Research, based in New York. He has held various senior positions in both Moody’s Ratings and Moody’s Analytics over his 27-year career with Moody's. Mr. Hamilton has worked across different asset classes including corporates, high-yield, financial institutions, sovereigns, public finance, structured finance, and digital assets, and in diverse leadership roles in quantitative research, credit policy, and business development in the US and Asia. Prior to joining Moody’s in 1997, Mr. Hamilton worked in the Regional Economics group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Nicole Lawrence is a Senior Director – Strategist for the Moody’s Analytics. She is responsible for strategy, management and marketing in Moody’s Analytics Structured Solutions group. Her expertise spans across several ABS and CLO markets. In addition, she is responsible for the Structured Solutions Research team.
Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Nicole held various roles with T-REX and B Asset Manager (BAM), focusing on analyzing and investing in esoteric and consumer ABS markets. Before BAM, she spent 11 years at PPM America, most notably as a Vice President, where she was responsible for investments across several ABS and CLO asset classes. Nicole began her career as an ABS ratings analyst for Moody’s Investors Service. Nicole has a Bachelor’s Degree from the University of Notre Dame and a Master’s Degree in Public Policy from the University of Chicago.