European Economic Outlook: Caught Between Trade Tensions and Geopolitics
The European economy has shown signs of revival as Germany’s huge fiscal stimulus feeds through, but the outlook continues to be shaped by external shocks. The conflict in Iran and resulting surge in energy prices is set to push up inflation and hit household purchasing power, threatening to derail Europe’s economic recovery if the disruption to energy markets persists. Moreover, this adds to a long list of existing concerns including U.S. tariffs, the faltering competitiveness of European industry and threats to European security. This on-demand webinar examines how the Iran conflict will affect Europe’s growth and inflation outlook and assesses how geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics are likely to affect economic performance across the region.
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SpeakersGaurav Ganguly Head of International Economics Moody's Analytics
Kamil Kovar Associate Director - Senior Economist Moody's Analytics
Andrew Hunter Associate Director, Senior Economist (EMEA) Moody's Analytics
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Dr. Gaurav Ganguly is Head of International Economics at Moody’s Analytics, where he heads economic research for Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. His research interests include international economics, geopolitics and climate change. Together with his research group, he focuses on the key risks facing the global economy and the ways in which these might manifest. His economic scenarios, forecasts and analysis are used by financial institutions, governments and companies to actively manage risks. He is a well-known public speaker and frequently comments on economic issues across and appears in the media. Based in London, he has taught at various Universities in the UK and held visiting academic positions, including a research fellowship at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College. Gaurav obtained his Master’s degree and a doctorate in Economics from the University of Oxford.
Andrew Hunter is an associate director and senior economist at Moody’s Analytics based in Edinburgh, Scotland. He covers the U.K. and other European economies and helps to oversee written research across the EMEA region. Andrew has more than a decade’s experience in macroeconomic research and previously worked for Capital Economics, primarily covering the U.S. economy. He holds a master’s degree in economic history from the London School of Economics and a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of St Andrews.