Fiscal Policy in a Time of Global Turmoil
An Assessment of Fiscal Space
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Policymakers around the world are wrestling with the aftermath of a global pandemic, the humanitarian crisis and economic disruption from the Russia-Ukraine invasion, inflationary pressures from supply chain woes, and elevated geopolitical risks.
In this webinar, we consider the global outlook for fiscal policy as nations devise policies to manage these problems and discuss the constraints on deficit spending that some governments are likely to face from record-high debt loads that have shrunk their fiscal space. We review approaches to measuring the availability of fiscal space, linking it to debt sustainability, key macro drivers, and perceptions of sovereign risk. We provide estimates of fiscal space for more than 70 countries and discuss how it is likely to evolve in our current baseline and downside scenarios.
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SpeakersDamien Moore Director - Economic Research Moody's Analytics
Eric Gaus Senior Economist Moody's Analytics
Jesse Rogers Head of LatAm Economics Moody's Analytics
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Damien Moore is a Director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics. He covers U.S. financial markets, provides research on finance-related topics, develops market risk models for stress-testing and other applications, and works on various Moody’s Analytics models and tools related to government and corporate finances. He has broad expertise in financial economics including asset pricing, valuation methodologies, portfolio analytics, macro finance, and financial econometrics.
Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Damien spent 12 years at the Congressional Budget Office, most recently as the head of the agency’s Financial Analysis Division, where he supervised projects analyzing the federal role in the financial system and the costs of federal financial programs. Under his supervision, the Division produced numerous reports including analyses of policies to rescue the U.S. financial system during the 2008 financial crisis, the federal conservatorships of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the federal role in housing and mortgage markets, the Pension Benefits Guarantee Corporation, and federal student loan programs. Before his time at the CBO, Damien was a lecturer in the School of Business at the University of Sydney. He taught classes in investments, fixed income securities, and corporate finance.
Damien holds a PhD in economics from Northwestern University as well as undergraduate degrees in economics and accounting from the Australian National University.
Eric Gaus is an assistant director and economist with Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, with responsibilities for development and improvement of country forecast and risk models. Eric is also responsible for the Netherlands’ economic forecast. Previously, he taught macroeconomics at Ursinus College and Haverford College. He has published several academic articles on macroeconomic expectations. Eric received his PhD in economics from the University of Oregon, and a BA and MA from Boston University.
Jesse Rogers is the head of LatAm Economics for Moody's Analytics, where he leads research and real-time coverage of Latin America. His work spans trade policy, international capital flows, commodity markets, political risk, and economic development. Jesse holds a master’s degree in economics and international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. While completing his degree, he interned with the U.S. Treasury and Institute of International Finance. Previously, he was a finance and politics reporter for El Diario New York and worked in Mexico City as a research assistant for the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE). He received his bachelor’s degree in Hispanic studies at the University of Pennsylvania. He is based at the Moody's Analytics office in Mexico City.