Assessing the Specter of Stagflation
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Stagflation, a term coined back in the 1960s to connote a struggling economy amid elevated inflation, threatens to reemerge. In this webinar, we will define stagflation, consider its causes, and assess how the current period stacks up with the stagflation of that earlier time. We will also consider the appropriate policy response and indicators to watch out for to gauge whether stagflation is likely to become a reality. We will end with a demonstration of a stagflation scenario using our model of the global economy.
As a precursor to this webinar, you may also enjoy listening to the latest Inside Economics Podcast "Bonus Episode: A Deep Dive - Stagflation" where Mark Zandi, Ryan Sweet and Cris deRitis discuss all aspects of stagflation, including the definition, the causes, and what they're watching to assess the risk of this scenario.
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SpeakersCris deRitis Deputy Chief Economist Moody's Analytics
Ryan Sweet Senior Director-Research Moody's Analytics
Gaurav Ganguly Head of EMEA Economics Moody's Analytics
Ed Friedman Director - Economic Research Moody's Analytics
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Cristian deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, specializes in assessing the economy’s impact on household finance, housing, credit markets and public policy. Named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling, he created loss forecasting and stress testing systems for financial institutions. He joined Moody’s in 2008, after serving as a director with Fannie Mae. He also was an adjunct professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.
Ryan Sweet is a director of real-time economics at Moody's Analytics.He is also editor-in-chief of Economic View, to which he regularly contributes,and a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team in West Chester PA. His areas of specialization include U.S. monetary policy and forecasting high-frequency economic indicators. He is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the U.S. economy, according to Market Watch. He is also an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. He received his master's degree in economics from the University of Delaware and his bachelor's degree in economics from Washington College.
Dr. Gaurav Ganguly is the Chief European Economist and Head of the Climate Change Group at Moodys Analytics. Gaurav is an expert on a number of international economies having spent several years analysing and commenting on countries across Europe, Asia and the Americas. Gaurav has previously worked in financial services, consulting and audit. He was a research fellow at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College in London, where he developed a framework for using climate scenarios within financial institutions. He currently teaches Environmental Economics at Imperial College. He did his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford.
Edward Friedman is a director at Moody’s Analytics. Dr. Friedman prepares monthly updates to multiple regularly produced alternative macroeconomic forecasts to the Moody’s Analytics U.S. baseline utilizing the 2,000-equation macroeconomic model, supervises the production of client scenarios, edits monthly regional publications, produces forecasts for Texas and its major metropolitan areas, and writes a monthly U.S. investment outlook. He previously worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, supervising the collection of data on cross-border transactions in securities. Dr. Friedman received a PhD in international economics from Yale University. His bachelor’s degree in mathematics is from Dartmouth College.