Slowcession Delayed
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The U.S. economy surprised to the upside in 2023 as consumers shrugged off a number of headwinds. With inflation abating and the Federal Reserve facing less pressure to hike interest rates, recession risks are fading. But they can’t be fully discounted given high interest rates, geopolitical turmoil, declining savings, and political uncertainty. Slower growth with somewhat higher unemployment is the most likely outcome. Call it a slowcession.
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SpeakersMark Zandi Chief Economist Moody's Analytics
Cris deRitis Deputy Chief Economist Moody's
Marisa DiNatale Senior Director - Economic Research Moody's
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Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi is a co founder of the company Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005.
Dr. Zandi’s broad research interests encompass macroeconomics, financial market sand public policy. His recent research has focused on mortgage finance reform and the determinants of mortgage foreclosure and personal bankruptcy. He has analyzed the economic impact of various tax and government spending policies and assessed the appropriate monetary policy response to bubbles in asset markets.
A trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public, Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress on topics including the economic outlook, the nation’s daunting fiscal challenges, the merits of fiscal stimulus, financial regulatory reform, and foreclosure mitigation.
Dr. Zandi conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels. He is on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and The Reinvestment Fund, a large CDFI that makes investments in disadvantaged neighborhoods. He is often quoted in national and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets, and is a frequent guest on CNBC, NPR, Meet the Press, CNN, and various other national networks and news programs.
Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which provides an assessment of the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by the New York Times as the “clearest guide” to the financial crisis.
Dr. Zandi earned his B.S. from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania. He lives with his wife and three children in the suburbs of Philadelphia.
Cristian deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, specializes in assessing the economy’s impact on household finance, housing, credit markets and public policy. Named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling, he created loss forecasting and stress testing systems for financial institutions. He joined Moody’s in 2008, after serving as a director with Fannie Mae. He also was an adjunct professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.
Marisa DiNatale is a Senior Director and Head of Global Forecasting at Moody’s. Marisa oversees all forecasting and publication operations in the Economics group within Predictive Analytics at Moody’s. Her areas of specialization and research are U.S. labor markets, household balance sheets and credit, and international economics. She is a cohost of the Moody’s weekly podcast “Inside Economics”. Marisa started her career as a labor economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. She holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University and a bachelor’s degree in International Relations from Boston University.