Economic, Real Estate and Credit Outlook in Wilmington

In-person event | Chase Center on the Riverfront | Wilmington, DE

Please note: Registration will close on June 14.

ABOUT

Recession risks are uncomfortably high, as the economy struggles with high inflation, and high rising interest rates. And while recession is not inevitable, the next 12-18 months will be a difficult time for the economy, the financial system, and real estate markets.

We're meeting in person for the first time in 3 years to discuss the economy’s prospects. Chief Economist, Mark Zandi, and economic experts from across Moody's Analytics will be there to provide their insights and answer your questions. During the event, we will discuss:

  • The macroeconomic outlook, as Mark assesses whether the economy can avoid a near-term downturn and the threats to any optimism.
  • The forces buffeting state and metropolitan area economies and their prospects.
  • The housing market recession, declining house prices, and the risks this poses to the mortgage market and broader economy.
  • The new normal in commercial real estate.
  • The ties between the business cycle and the credit cycle through the prism of corporate credit risk.
  • What’s in store for consumer credit borrowers and lenders across the credit spectrum.
  • AGENDA

    Agenda

    09:30 - 10:00
    EDT

    Registration check-in

    10:00 - 10:10
    EDT

    Welcome Address

    CC
    Celia Chen MD-Strategy & Operations, Moody's Analytics
    10:10 - 11:00
    EDT

    Business Cycle’s Moment of Truth

    Recession fears have been paramount since inflation surged and the Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates more than a year ago. The recent banking crisis highlights the stresses building in the financial system as a result. But while the economy will struggle in the coming year, it has a fighting chance to get through without suffering an outright downturn.

    11:00 - 11:45
    EDT

    U.S. Regional Outlook: Shocks, Setbacks and Successes

    Regional economies in the U.S. have navigated seismic shifts in recent years and plenty of uncertainty remains. From the permanent changes wrought by the pandemic to the impacts of inflation on key drivers like tech, finance, and housing, the road ahead looks bumpy for much of the nation. This session will discuss the short- and long-term prospects for different areas of the country as they navigate a series of foreboding headwinds. Resiliency and vulnerability to near-term issues along with longer-term concerns like climate change will be covered.

    11:45 - 12:45
    EDT

    Lunch

    12:45 - 13:30
    EDT

    Housing Outlook: Going Nowhere Fast?

    Home sales and house prices have fallen sharply over the last year. Rising interest rates and falling mortgage payment affordability have sharply reduced the number of qualified homebuyers.  And, existing homeowners are in no hurry to sell after locking in record low interest rates. How will this standoff end?  This session will take stock of current trends in sales and construction and provide lenders, builders, and investors with insights into the future trajectory of home prices to facilitate investment, loan origination, and loss mitigation decisions.

    13:30 - 14:15
    EDT

    All Eyes on CRE: Banking Troubles, Cap Rates, and the Future

    The news about recent bank failures has put all eyes on the Commercial Real Estate industry. What impacts will future banking stress have on CRE properties and professionals? We will discuss potential effects on property valuation, cap rates, and what potential instability might mean for the future. 

    14:15 - 14:45
    EDT

    Break

    14:45 - 15:30
    EDT

    Navigating Choppy Waters of the Corporate Credit Cycle

    Corporate credit in the US has proven to be remarkably resilient to macroeconomic uncertainty and the sharp tightening of monetary policy. The credit cycle, however, has reached an inflection point, and the question now is how much credit risk will rise going forward. In this session we will draw connections between the business and credit cycles, look at the factors that are driving the credit cycle, and consider how different economic scenarios may impact corporate credit risk.

    David Hamilton
    David Hamilton Managing Director, Head of Credit Insights, Moody's
    15:30 - 16:15
    EDT

    Consumer Credit – Cautiously Optimistic

    After two years of robust gains, the consumer credit cycle is rolling over. A combination of higher borrowing costs and cooling job market will lead to slower originations growth and deteriorating performance. Both borrowers and lenders face a number of hurdles in the coming quarters, particularly the impact of higher rates, tightening by creditors, the ending of student loan accommodations and the impact of already rising delinquency and default rates.

    16:15 - 16:25
    EDT

    Break

    16:25 - 17:15
    EDT

    Fireside Chat with Mark Zandi and Doug Simons, Senior Markets and Policy Fellow at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

    Join Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, and Doug Simons, Senior Markets and Policy Fellow at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, for a fireside chat to discuss a range of top-of-mind issues related to the financial system. Doug has been an active participant in the financial system for more than 3 decades, and is an especially keen observer of the financial system’s strengths and weaknesses.

    17:15 - 18:00
    EDT

    Close & Networking Reception

    SPEAKERS

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    Mark Zandi Chief Economist Moody's Analytics Bio
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    Adam Kamins Senior Regional Economist Moody's Analytics Bio
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    Cris deRitis Deputy Chief Economist Moody's Bio
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    David Hamilton Managing Director, Head of Credit Insights Moody's
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    Kyle Hillman Associate Director - Research Moody's Analytics Bio
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    Thomas LaSalvia, PhD Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics Moody's Bio
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    Doug Simons Senior Markets and Policy Fellow Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Bio

    LOCATION


    Event Details:

    Venue Name: Chase Center on the Riverfront

    Address: 815 Justison Street
    Wilmington, DE 19801


    Date: Tuesday, June 20, 2023

    Time: 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM ET