Economic, Real Estate and Credit Outlook in Chicago

In-person event | Convene (311 W Monroe) | Chicago, IL

Please note: Registration is now closed.


Recession risks are uncomfortably high, as the economy struggles with high inflation and high rising interest rates. And while recession is not inevitable, the next 12-18 months will be a difficult time for the economy, the financial system, and real estate markets.

We're coming to Chicago to discuss the economy's prospects. Chief Economist, Mark Zandi, and economic experts from across Moody's Analytics will be there to provide their insights and answer your questions. During the event, we will discuss:

  • The macroeconomic outlook, as Mark assesses whether the economy can avoid a near-term downturn and the threats to any optimism.
  • Regional economies that will perform well and those that will suffer setbacks due to global and domestic shocks.
  • What's in store for consumer credit borrowers and lenders across the credit spectrum.
  • Corporate credit conditions are good, but this won’t continue given the weak economy and higher interest rates. This session assesses how significant the erosion in credit quality will be and the implications for the financial system and economy.
  • Mounting concerns around commercial real estate. We'll take a deeper look into what they are and the broader implications.
  • The housing market recession, declining house prices, and the risks this poses to the mortgage market and broader economy.



08:30 - 09:00

Registration Check-In

09:00 - 09:15

Welcome Address

Oliver Cantrell Director, Sales Manager, Moody's Analytics
09:15 - 10:15

Business Cycle's Moment of Truth

Recession fears have been paramount since inflation surged and the Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates more than a year ago.  The banking crisis earlier this year highlights the stresses building in the financial system as a result.  But while the economy will struggle in the coming year, it has a fighting chance to get through without suffering an outright downturn.

10:15 - 11:00

Regional Economic Shocks, Setbacks and Successes

Seismic economic shocks from the pandemic and Russian war in Ukraine to the banking crisis and climate change are having dramatic impacts on the performance and prospects for the nation's state and metropolitan area economies.  This session identifies those regional economies that will succeed and those that are likely to suffer setbacks because of the ongoing fallout from these shocks. 

11:00 - 11:30


11:30 - 12:15

Household Balance Sheets Weather the Storm (So Far)

Household balance sheets have held up surprisingly well since the pandemic hit due to the previous record low interest rates and generous financial support from the federal government. While there are signs of financial stress among low income and younger households, middle and especially high-income households remain on solid financial ground.  Across all households, debt loads remain light and asset prices not far from their record highs. But how much longer will this continue?  And will the current stress lines in household finances turn into fault lines, ultimately undermining consumer spending and the economy.

12:15 - 13:15


13:15 - 14:00

Corporate Credit Risk Panel Discussion

Corporate credit conditions have proven to be remarkably resilient. Despite rising interest rates and weaker corporate profits, corporate defaults remain low and corporate credit spreads narrow. The corporate credit cycle, however, has reached an inflection point, and the question now is how big the corporate credit problems will be and what this implies for the economic outlook.

David Hamilton
David Hamilton Managing Director, Head of Credit Insights, Moody's
Elizabeth Henderson, CFA
Elizabeth Henderson, CFA Principal and Director of Corporate Credit, AAM
14:00 - 14:45

Commercial Real Estate Panel Discussion

Suring interest rates, remote work, a weaker economy, and the fragile banking system has put greater focus on the struggling commercial real estate market. There is much concern that high and rising vacancies and weakening rents will undermine CRE prices resulting in surging defaults on CRE loans. This panel considers these prospects and whether this could result in bank failures and reignite the banking crisis and ultimately be the catalyst for the next recession.

14:45 - 15:15


15:15 - 16:00

Going Nowhere Fast in the Housing Market

Home sales and single-family starts have fallen sharply, and house prices have slumped over the past year.  Rising mortgage rates and collapsing affordability have sharply reduced the number of qualified homebuyers. And existing homeowners are in no hurry to sell after locking in record low interest rates.  How will this stand-off end? This session will take stock of current trends in sales and construction and provide lenders, builders, and investors with insights into the future trajectory of home prices to facilitate investment, loan origination, and loss mitigation decisions.

16:00 - 16:45

Fireside Chat with Mark Zandi & Special Guest, Carl Tannenbaum, Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Northern Trust

Mark will have an in-depth conversation with guest speaker, Carl Tannenbaum, Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Northern Trust regarding the economy's performance and outlook.

16:45 - 16:50

Closing Remarks

16:50 - 17:45



Oliver Cantrell Director, Sales Manager Moody's Analytics
Cris deRitis Deputy Chief Economist Moody's Bio
Marisa DiNatale Senior Director - Economic Research Moody's Bio
David Fieldhouse Director - Consumer Credit Analytics Moody's Analytics Bio
David Hamilton Managing Director, Head of Credit Insights Moody's
Elizabeth Henderson, CFA Principal and Director of Corporate Credit AAM
Ermengarde Jabir Associate Director and Senior Economist Moody's Bio
Damien Moore Director - Economic Research Moody's Analytics Bio
Erin Stafford Managing Director – Head of North American CMBS DBRS Morningstar Bio
Carl Tannenbaum Chief Economist Northern Trust Bio
Martin Wurm Director-Economic Research Moody’s Analytics Bio
Mark Zandi Chief Economist Moody's Analytics Bio


Event Details:

Venue Name: Convene

Address: 311 W Monroe St,
Chicago, IL 60606

Date: Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Time: 9:00 AM – 6:00 PM CT