Tight financing conditions and elevated prices will weigh on European consumer sentiment and weaken consumer spending over the second half of the year and through 2024. However, still low unemployment rates and high nominal wages will provide some cushion for households over the coming quarters. The impact of high interest rates and slower growth will vary by sector and by company. While spending on services has been more resilient, we expect it to catch down with manufacturing over the coming quarters.
Join Moody’s senior analysts to hear their views on how they expect the situation to evolve and what credit implications will be for companies, banks and structured finance transactions.
- How do we expect European consumer spending to evolve?
- Which corporate sectors will likely be most affected?
- Which sectors will be resilient?
- How resilient will banks be on the back of high interest rates and a weakening economic outlook?
- Which securitized portfolios are most exposed to the high-interest rate environment and slower growth trends?
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SpeakersLaura Perez Martinez AMD – Chief Credit Officer, EMEA Moody’s Ratings
Ruosha Li Vice President-Senior Analyst, Credit Strategy and Standards Moody's Ratings
David Beadle Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Moody’s Ratings
Maria Cabanyes Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Moody's Investors Service
Olga Gekht Senior Vice President/Manager, Structured Finance Group Moody's Investors Service
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| Laura Perez Martinez is Moody’s Chief Credit Officer in the EU, and an Associate Managing Director in the Credit Strategy team. In her CCO role, Laura is responsible for identifying and analysing the broad macro and credit trends, and leading and coordinating Moody’s ratings approach, across franchises in the region. Laura joined Moody’s in 2008 in London, where she worked as a senior credit analyst, covering leading European financial institutions. She relocated to Madrid in September 2016 to join the corporate finance team. Before joining Moody’s, Laura worked for AM Best covering European insurers. Laura holds a B.A. in Business Administration from University of Oviedo in Spain, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). |
Ruosha joined Moody’s in January 2011. She is currently based in London as part of the part of the Credit Strategy & Research team. Previously, she worked for four years as an economic research analyst at Barrie & Hibbert in Edinburgh, now part of Moody’s Analytics. Prior to that, she spent one year at HSBC in China as a credit analyst. Ruosha earned a master’s degree in finance and investment from Edinburgh University, where she graduated with distinction, and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu, China. She is a certified Financial Risk Manager.
David Beadle joined Moody’s in 2014 and covers retail industry credits in the UK and Western Europe as a Vice President – Senior Credit Officer in the EMEA Corporate Finance Group in London. He covers a number of UK retailers, including the grocers, Tesco and Wm Morrison, fuel forecourt operator Euro Garages, and fashion businesses, House of Fraser, Matalan and New Look. His coverage also includes French, German and Dutch issuers. Prior to joining Moody's David had spent more than 15 years as a credit analyst and portfolio manager in the City, most recently with international specialist banking and asset management group, Investec.
Maria Cabanyes is a Senior Vice President and team coordinator in the EMEA Financial Institutions Group for Spain and Portugal, in addition, she is lead analyst for the larger financial institutions in Spain.
Ms Cabanyes joined Moody’s London-based banking team in December 1992, since when she has followed banks as lead analyst, as well as in Spain, in the Nordic region, Portugal and in Latin America. Ms Cabanyes has also served as Regional Credit Officer to Moody’s Banking and Finance rating teams in EMEA, ensuring compliance with existing rating methodologies, supporting the development and implementation of analytical initiatives as well as facilitating global rating consistency.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 1992, Ms Cabanyes was an equity analyst at Iberagentes (Spain). Ms Cabanyes has a Bachelor Degree in Business Administration and MSc in Finance from Colegio Universitario de Estudios Financieros (CUNEF) Madrid.
