Uncertainty, Resilience, Opportunity
2024 Credit Risk Forum | In-Person Event | Convene at One Liberty Plaza (165 Broadway) - New York
Registration for the event will close on Friday, April 12.
Agenda
11.30
- 12.00
EDT
Registration
12.00
- 12.45
EDT
Lunch and Networking
12.45
- 13.00
EDT
Welcome Remarks
13.00
- 14.00
EDT
Optimism Amidst Uncertainty
The U.S. economy is performing well, and economic prospects this year are good. Interest rates are set to decline, consumers remain stalwart spenders and businesses reluctant to lay off workers. Of course, there are serious threats to this optimism. The commercial real estate market continues to teeter, the financial system is fragile, and there is a lengthy list of geopolitical hotspots that threaten to boil over. And then there is the presidential election that will be close and likely contested.
14.00
- 14.45
EDT
How Much Risk Does CRE Exposure Pose to Banks?
Banks’ exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) has been a source of increasing concern. With office vacancy rates at an all-time high as people continue to work remotely, and with an estimated $1.5 trillion of CRE loans coming due by the end of 2025, how much risk does CRE pose to banks? Kevin Fagan joins us to talk about how risky CRE actually is, and Jill Cetina offers Moody’s Ratings’ point of view on how well banks might weather stress arising from CRE credit losses.
14.45
- 15.15
EDT
Networking Break & Discovery Stations
Stop by the Discovery Stations and meet with experts to learn more about our solutions.
Corporate Credit Risk: EDF-X applies Moody’s time-tested credit models with our robust data assets to reliably assess the financial resilience of any rated or unrated, public or private company globally with greater speed and accuracy. EDF-X Navigator, our GenAI conversational platform helps customers get more support and insights from EDF-X faster – a game changer for productivity.
Commercial Real Estate: Moody’s CRE Portfolio Assistant provides early warnings on portfolio assets tied to specific news events, tenant events, property performance changes and changes in market conditions. Customers can interact with their data to run ad-hoc scenarios, stress testing and benchmarking to better manage risk and uncover issues sooner.
Comprehensive Credit Analysis: Moody’s GenAI Research Assistant transforms credit analysis across rated, public, and private entities by synthesizing vast amounts of Moody's research, ratings, and key financial metrics available on CreditView within seconds. Quickly generate a comprehensive view of risk along with citations to the source documents for transparency.
Credit Underwriting & Loan Monitoring: Moody’s GenAI Credit Memo offers insightful narrative generation to assist in credit write ups, supercharging the underwriting process with automations. With our new CreditLens Loan Monitoring suite, discover how to stay ahead of emerging risks and gain efficiencies in requesting and collecting client required documents.
15.15
- 16.00
EDT
Credit Market Outlook: Resilience and Risk
While corporate defaults have risen in the face of sharply higher interest rates, tighter financing conditions, and economic uncertainty, credit has proven to be remarkably robust. Moody’s predicts that the default rate for non-investment grade issuers will fall from 5.7% to 3.9% over the next year. But are we really out of the woods? Atsi Sheth and David Hamilton discuss the factors shaping the outlook for corporate credit.
16.00
- 17.00
EDT
GenAI-Led Innovations in Credit
Moody’s century+ experience in understanding and explaining credit risk – encoded in its credit opinions – and its vast collections of data assets and models is helping it make significant strides in the application of GenAI to understanding financial and credit risk at scale. Ari Lehavi will walk us through how Moody’s is developing GenAI-powered risk intelligence solutions, lessons learned in the process, and how it will transform the practice of credit risk management.
17.00
EDT
Closing Remarks
17.05
- 17.30
EDT
Networking Reception
SPEAKERS
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Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi cofounded Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005.
Dr. Zandi is on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, is the lead director of PolicyMap, a data visualization and analytics company used by policymakers and commercial businesses, and is a director of the Coleridge Initiative, a nonprofit that facilitates the exchange of data across governments.
He is a trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public. Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress and conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels.
Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which assesses the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by The New York Times as the “clearest guide” to the financial crisis. Dr. Zandi is host of the Inside Economics podcast.
Dr. Zandi earned his BS from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania.
Warren Kornfeld is a Senior Vice President in Moody’s Financial Institutions Group covering mortgage, credit card, student loan banks and finance companies as well as Government Sponsored Enterprises (FHLBanks, Farm Credit, Fannie and Freddie).
Prior to joining the Financial Institutions Group, Warren was a Managing Director for Structured Finance Administration overseeing key strategic initiatives and prior to that Warren co-headed the Residential Mortgage- Backed Securities (RMBS) team as well as headed up the U.S. Servicer Ratings team.
Warren joined Moody’s in 2001. Prior to Moody’s, Warren held senior investment banking positions with William Blair & Co., The Industrial Bank of Japan and Bickford & Partners focusing on a securitizations of a wide range of asset types, including residential mortgages, equipment lease, auto loan and lease, consumer assets and commercial receivables.
Warren holds a B.S. in Finance and Decision Sciences from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Matt Reidy, CFA is a Director of CRE Economics on the CRE Thought Leadership team at Moody’s Analytics. Matt is involved in research across CRE property types with expertise in the areas of real estate capital markets, multifamily, and affordable housing. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Matt spent 17 years in various CRE Investment roles in the insurance industry, most recently as VP of Real Estate Investment Strategy, Risk Management & Analytics for a large midwestern life insurer. His years as a practitioner bring a unique, real world experienced viewpoint to the Thought Leadership team. Matt holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, an MBA from The Ohio State University, and a Bachelor’s in Accounting from University of Cincinnati.
David Hamilton is Managing Director, Head of Asset Management Research, based in New York. He has held various senior positions in both Moody’s Ratings and Moody’s Analytics over his 27-year career with Moody's. Mr. Hamilton has worked across different asset classes including corporates, high-yield, financial institutions, sovereigns, public finance, structured finance, and digital assets, and in diverse leadership roles in quantitative research, credit policy, and business development in the US and Asia. Prior to joining Moody’s in 1997, Mr. Hamilton worked in the Regional Economics group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Ari Lehavi is General Manager and Head of Applied AI at Moody’s Analytics. He leads efforts to reimagine the company’s most critical internal workflows with AI, embedding intelligence into how Moody’s operates. His work focuses on building systems that continuously learn and improve, driving better decisions and outcomes across the business. Ari holds degrees from Stanford University and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi cofounded Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005.
Dr. Zandi is on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, is the lead director of PolicyMap, a data visualization and analytics company used by policymakers and commercial businesses, and is a director of the Coleridge Initiative, a nonprofit that facilitates the exchange of data across governments.
He is a trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public. Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress and conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels.
Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which assesses the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by The New York Times as the “clearest guide” to the financial crisis. Dr. Zandi is host of the Inside Economics podcast.
Dr. Zandi earned his BS from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania.
David Hamilton is Managing Director, Head of Asset Management Research, based in New York. He has held various senior positions in both Moody’s Ratings and Moody’s Analytics over his 27-year career with Moody's. Mr. Hamilton has worked across different asset classes including corporates, high-yield, financial institutions, sovereigns, public finance, structured finance, and digital assets, and in diverse leadership roles in quantitative research, credit policy, and business development in the US and Asia. Prior to joining Moody’s in 1997, Mr. Hamilton worked in the Regional Economics group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Warren Kornfeld is a Senior Vice President in Moody’s Financial Institutions Group covering mortgage, credit card, student loan banks and finance companies as well as Government Sponsored Enterprises (FHLBanks, Farm Credit, Fannie and Freddie).
Prior to joining the Financial Institutions Group, Warren was a Managing Director for Structured Finance Administration overseeing key strategic initiatives and prior to that Warren co-headed the Residential Mortgage- Backed Securities (RMBS) team as well as headed up the U.S. Servicer Ratings team.
Warren joined Moody’s in 2001. Prior to Moody’s, Warren held senior investment banking positions with William Blair & Co., The Industrial Bank of Japan and Bickford & Partners focusing on a securitizations of a wide range of asset types, including residential mortgages, equipment lease, auto loan and lease, consumer assets and commercial receivables.
Warren holds a B.S. in Finance and Decision Sciences from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Ari Lehavi is General Manager and Head of Applied AI at Moody’s Analytics. He leads efforts to reimagine the company’s most critical internal workflows with AI, embedding intelligence into how Moody’s operates. His work focuses on building systems that continuously learn and improve, driving better decisions and outcomes across the business. Ari holds degrees from Stanford University and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Matt Reidy, CFA is a Director of CRE Economics on the CRE Thought Leadership team at Moody’s Analytics. Matt is involved in research across CRE property types with expertise in the areas of real estate capital markets, multifamily, and affordable housing. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Matt spent 17 years in various CRE Investment roles in the insurance industry, most recently as VP of Real Estate Investment Strategy, Risk Management & Analytics for a large midwestern life insurer. His years as a practitioner bring a unique, real world experienced viewpoint to the Thought Leadership team. Matt holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, an MBA from The Ohio State University, and a Bachelor’s in Accounting from University of Cincinnati.