Global Emerging Markets 2024
The EM balancing act: fragile recovery, new threats
Moody’s Global Emerging Markets virtual event explored the complex dynamics of emerging markets in 2024 and identified credit opportunities across the globe. Insightful discussions and expert analyses guided the audience through the latest Moody’s data, macroeconomic scenarios, sovereign ratings and corporate themes.
The main discussions will be followed by Regional Deep Dives (11-25 June).
Watch the Global Emerging Markets Virtual Event and the Deep Dives on-demand by clicking here.
Agenda
Opening remarks
EM credit conditions: a journey from macro scenarios to rating and default trends
EM macro insights: keynote interview
EM sovereigns on the move: rising tide of looser financial conditions lifts boats, but doesn't fix leaks
EM corporates: building resilience amidst political and sectoral shifts
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Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries. Marie is also a project owner of Moody’s Investors Service’s ESG scores, which were launched in early 2021.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work. Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
Scott Phillips is the Global Head of Emerging Markets Credit Strategy reporting to Atsi Sheth and based in London. He is responsible for a highly visible team that articulates MIS’s insights, analysis and thought-leadership on the global EM universe, which covers all elements of fixed-income credit – sovereign, corporates, financials, infrastructure and structured finance. Until July 2022, Scott was the Head of Strategy & Business Management at Moody’s, responsible for analyzing key capital market developments across MIS’s core geographies and new regions of strategic interest. He oversaw Moody’s investment in GCR Ratings, a domestic CRA in Africa, and served as Representative Director for both Midroog and MERIS, in Israel and Egypt respectively. Prior to joining Moody’s in London, Scott was an equity research analyst and started his career with Dresdner Kleinwort where he covered the European utility sector. His analytical career also took him to Ofgem (the UK energy regulator), UniCredit and BlackRock. Scott has a degree in Molecular & Cellular Biochemistry from the University of Oxford and is mid-way through a second Masters in Computer Science from the University of Bath.
Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries. Marie is also a project owner of Moody’s Investors Service’s ESG scores, which were launched in early 2021.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work. Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
Dr Murat Ulgen joined HSBC in April 2006 as the Chief Economist for Turkey. Before joining HSBC, he held
several sell-side economist and strategist positions in London and Istanbul, covering more than 15 emerging
market countries in that time zone.
In December 2009, Dr. Ulgen was appointed HSBC's Chief Economist for Central & Eastern Europe and sub-
Saharan Africa.
Dr Ulgen holds a doctorate degree in finance and has also lectured at several Turkish universities on economics
and international finance. Dr Ulgen was appointed HSBC's Global Head of Emerging Markets Research in June
2014.
Christian Fang is a Vice President and Senior Analyst with the Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service.
Based in Dubai, Christian serves as lead analyst for a portfolio of sovereigns in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, including Jordan, Kuwait, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka.
He is also lead analyst for the Gulf Investment Corporation and the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector, multilateral development banks serving the interests of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, respectively.
Christian was formerly based in Singapore covering a portfolio of predominantly Asia Pacific and Eurasian sovereigns and sub-sovereigns.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Christian was a Lead Portfolio Manager for the Monetary Authority of Singapore, where he was responsible for the investment of Singapore’s foreign reserves in European fixed income, global investment-grade credit, and global developed equity markets.
His time with the central bank included a two-and-a-half-year stint in London as its sole in-house investment representative. He also worked in monetary policy operations and macroprudential policy research, and was involved in the negotiation of Singapore’s renminbi swap line with China, as well as banking systemwide stress tests.
Christian holds an honors bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Chicago and a master’s degree in Finance from Princeton University.
Daniela Re Fraschini is a Vice President – Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. Based in London, she is the lead analyst for a number of sovereigns and supranational institutions in Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa. In her role, Daniela has also contributed to the development of Moody’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) Scores for sovereigns and MDBs and regularly engages with market participants and policymakers representing the firm’s credit views.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2017, Daniela worked for the Asian Development Bank as a risk management specialist, helping establishing the sovereign credit rating methodology and process for ADB. Prior to that, Daniela was a Vice President at Unicredit Group, leading the sovereign risk team in the Risk Management Department. She started her career at Unicredit as an economist in the Research and Strategy unit.
Daniela holds an MA in International Economics and Finance from the Catholic University of Milan.
Prior to Amundi, Ms Law was the co-manager of the Local Currency Bond Fund at Pioneer Investments. Previously, she was a Director in EM Strategy for Société Générale and a Senior EM strategist for the RBS. Esther began her career at HSBC and moved towards fixed income strategy. Esther was awarded the Fund Manager of the Year 2019 by Women in Finance London and ranked top 3 in The Most Astute Investors in Asian Local Currency 2019 (UK/EU/AUS category) by The Asset. She holds an MSc in Mathematical Trading and Finance from CASS Business School of City University of London and a BSc degree in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Matt Robinson manages the Sovereign Risk Group’s Middle East and Africa team producing ratings and research regarding sovereign and supranational creditworthiness in Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East/North Africa. He is responsible for managing staff located in London, Frankfurt, Dubai and New York.
Matt joined Moody’s in 2007 after a decade of macroeconomic and public policy experience. Prior to managing the Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings team, Matt was the Director of Sovereign Research, responsible for coordinating and contributing to the research produced by Moody’s global team of sovereign risk analysts. Matt previously managed the affairs of the Moody’s Economy.com Sydney office, providing independent economic analysis, data and forecasting and credit risk services to Moody’s Analytics’ worldwide client base. Before joining Moody’s, Matt worked as an economist and policy adviser in a number of public and private sector organisations, including Commonwealth Treasury and the Economic Division of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet in Australia.
Matt received his bachelor of economics from the University of Newcastle(Australia) and his graduate degree from the Australian National University.
Laura Acres is Managing Director for the Corporate Finance Group for Asia. Based in Singapore, she has overall responsibility for Moody’s corporate ratings and research for the region, managing teams in Sydney, Singapore, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai and Tokyo. Laura also spearheads our global Emerging Markets initiative, leading many of our aggregated research based publications in this space and helping to coordinate Moody’s approach to this large and growing area of focus. Laura joined the company in 2006 taking a number of Lead Analyst roles for a variety of corporates around the region; she also created Moody’s aggregated high-yield research and outreach initiatives for the Asia Pacific region. She was appointed Managing Director in 2015 and led the Singapore based South & South East Asia corporate rating teams and was then appointed to her current role in 2020. Before joining Moody’s, Laura worked for Schroders PLC in London and Singapore, and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Singapore, where she specialized in corporate restructuring and recovery throughout Southeast Asia. Laura holds a BSc (Econ) from the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Antonello Aquino is Managing Director for EMEA Insurance and for Africa Banking. He is responsible for Moody’s analytic team maintaining Moody’s ratings on EMEA insurers and African banks. Antonello joined Moody’s in 2008 as a senior insurance analyst covering some of the major European (re)insurers.
Prior to Moody’s, Antonello was responsible for the FIG rating advisory practice at Credit Suisse in Europe. Prior to joining Credit Suisse, Antonello was a senior analyst at S&P insurance and worked in the FIG M&A team of DrKW and ABN AMRO.
Antonello holds an MBA from HEC and is alumnus of London Business School. He graduated in business administration cum laude from Bocconi University in Italy. Antonello is fluent in English, Italian and French.
Marianna Waltz is a Managing Director at Moody’s Investors Service and has joined the company in 2011. She currently runs Moody’s ratings teams in Latin America, including the Corporate Finance, Infrastructure, Banking and Sub-Sovereign groups across more than 15 countries. She is responsible for the development of MIS ratings and research opinions for the region’s fundamental ratings groups, and the delivery of services to issuers and market participants. Prior to assuming this role in January 2021, Marianna was the Managing Director responsible for Moody’s Corporate Finance team in Latin America. Marianna is also a member of the Board of Directors of Moody’s Local, an affiliate of Moody’s in Peru, Panamá, Bolivia, Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil. Prior to joining Moody’s, Marianna developed a career as an equity sell side analyst covering mostly the Brazilian Consumer and Protein sectors. From 2008 to 2011, she was the head of sell-side equity research in the investment arm of Banco do Brasil in Sao Paulo. Marianna is a CFA charter holder and holds three master’s degrees, including an MBA in Finance from IBMEC Business School and an MBA in Marketing from Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV.
David Staples is a Managing Director at Moody’s in the EMEA Corporate Finance Group based in Dubai. His responsibilities include managing the analytical teams that oversee the ratings of companies based in the Middle East, Turkey, South Africa as well as Russia and the CIS.
David has a Masters degree from The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, D.C. (1984) and a Bachelors degree from the University of Cincinnati (1982).