Virtual Event
REPLAY

State of Nations – APAC Edition

Sovereign risk and resilience in a rewired world

Click to register for the on-demand.
Click to register for the on-demand.

Global sovereign outlook 2026

Marie outlines a weaker global growth outlook, the opportunities and risks from AI adoption, and how rigid budgets, high debt and rising borrowing costs are straining sovereign fiscal resilience.

Presentation Slides

Speakers

Robin Harding

Robin Harding

Asia Editor

The Financial Times

Frederic Neumann

Frederic Neumann

Chief Asia Economist, and Co-head of Global Investment Research Asia

HSBC Holdings Plc

Marie Diron

Marie Diron

Managing Director, Global Sovereign Risk

Moody's Ratings

Gene Fang

Gene Fang

Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk

Moody's Ratings

APAC sovereign risk and resilience

This session examines Moody’s negative sovereign outlook for 2026 amid underestimated risks from AI and geopolitics, shifting US-Asia trade and tariffs, China’s domestic imbalances, regional policy changes and how capital flows and fiscal capacity shape Asia’s sovereign credit prospects.

Global outlook and key risks

Credit risks are rising globally. Audience poll show markets may be overlooking major challenges: an AI-driven tech bubble, U.S. policy uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions, factors that call for vigilance and strategic foresight.

Trade shifts and tariff impact

Robin and Fred examine U.S. tariffs on Asian economies, noting limited short-term effects but warning of structural imbalances and potential delayed impacts on trade flows.

China’s domestic challenges and global spillovers

Focus on China’s anti-competition policies, overinvestment vs. under-consumption and risks of tariff escalation from Europe as Chinese exports seek new markets.

AI boom: growth driver or bubble?

AI emerges as both opportunity and risk. Discussion on short-term hardware demand, long-term adoption uncertainty and sectoral winners vs. losers in Asia.

Japan and regional policy dynamics

Japan’s new leadership, fiscal stance and BOJ independence, as well as emerging market fiscal pressures and social unrest in Southeast Asia.

Capital flows, currency and fiscal sustainability

US-China tensions shaping FDI, Hong Kong’s rise as a financial hub, dollar diversification, fiscal capacity for climate and defense spending and interest rate outlook across Asia.