Sovereign Deep Dive: USA
Fiscal strength and institutional resilience under pressure
Fiscal strength and institutional resilience under pressure
Despite higher tariff revenue, the United States continues to grapple with a weak fiscal outlook as rising debt service costs weigh on public finances. Political polarization lowers the odds of durable long-term fiscal reforms.
While institutional strength and the dollar’s reserve currency role remain key supports to the sovereign credit profile, pressures on the institutional framework are building and could test the country’s financing advantages.
Discussion Topics:
- Has the fiscal outlook changed in light of higher anticipated tariff revenue and passage of new fiscal legislation?
- What could drive a potential change in the outlook or rating level?
- How might the mid-term elections influence policy choices and prospects for addressing long-term credit challenges?
Speakers
William Foster
Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk
Moody's Ratings
David Rogovic
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk
Moody's Ratings
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William (Bill) Foster is a Senior Vice President in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group in New York, where he currently serves as lead analyst on a portfolio of sovereign and supranational credits that include: the United States, Canada, Israel, Dominican Republic, Bolivia, Honduras, the IFC and FONPLATA. He previously served as lead analyst for India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Chile and the World Bank. Bill is global head of Moody's Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Cyber Risk Working Group and also serves as co-host of fv/oody's Talks- The Big Picture podcast series.
Bill joined Moody's in August 2016, following 10 years at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He most recently served as Senior Advisor for International Financial Markets based in New York, where he was the Office of International Affairs' first dedicated liaison to New York's international financial community. From August 2012 to March 2015, he served as U.S. Financial Attache to India at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. Bill joined Treasury's Office of International Affairs as an international economist in 2006 and covered a range of geographies during his tenure, including Latin America, South and East Asia. Prior to joining Treasury, he worked as a management consultant at Accenture.
Bill holds a Master of International Affairs degree in International Financial and Economic Policy from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) and a BA from Wesleyan University.
David Rogovic is an Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in New York. David has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereign and supranational credits in Africa as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. David’s prior experience includes the best part of a decade analyzing sovereign credit risk in Western and Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey and Asia with J.P. Morgan, Nomura Asset Management and Roubini Global Economics, as well as an earlier stint with S&P’s financial institutions division. David is a Fulbright scholar (Economics Institute, Zagreb) and was awarded a Master of Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from Pace University.