Virtual Event

State of Nations - Global Edition

Sovereign resilience and risk in a rewired world

Click to register for the on-demand.
Click to register for the on-demand.

Global sovereign outlook 2026

Marie Diron outlines a weaker global growth outlook, the opportunities and risks from AI adoption, and how rigid budgets, high debt and rising borrowing costs are straining sovereign fiscal resilience.

Presentation Slides

Speakers

Admiral Rob Bauer

Admiral Rob Bauer

Former Chair

NATO Military Committee

Annabel Rudebeck

Annabel Rudebeck

Deputy Chief Investment Officer & Head of Investment Management

Western Asset Management

Philipp Lotter

Philipp Lotter

Managing Director, Head of Global Ratings & Research

Moody's Ratings

Marie Diron

Marie Diron

Managing Director, Global Sovereign Risk

Moody's Ratings

Renzo Merino

Renzo Merino

Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk

Moody’s Ratings

Sovereign risk and resilience

This panel explores how shifting geopolitics, China’s expanding economic influence and evolving tariff regimes are reshaping investment, sovereign credit and reserve management, alongside rising defense and security spending needs and the long-term productivity implications of advanced technologies including AI, robotics and quantum computing.

Geopolitical risks

Admiral Rob Bauer emphasizes shifting global power dynamics, China’s control over production and rare earths and the risk of parallel global systems emerging.

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    Admiral Rob Bauer Former Chair, NATO Military Committee

Investor strategies amid tariff uncertainty

Annabel Rubeck explains market resilience despite tariff hikes, the “buy the dip” trend and how large corporates adapt to supply chain complexity.

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    Annabel Rudebeck Deputy Chief Investment Officer & Head of Investment Management, Western Asset Management

Sovereign ratings under fiscal pressure

Renzo Marino outlines rising debt burdens, spending rigidities, governance challenges and how policy responses and institutional strength affect ratings.

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    Renzo Merino Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk, Moody’s Ratings

Dollar diversification and gold surge

Discussion on central banks increasing gold holdings, reduced reliance on US treasuries and diversification trends driven by security and fiscal concerns.

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    Annabel Rudebeck Deputy Chief Investment Officer & Head of Investment Management, Western Asset Management

Governments policy choices: defense, welfare and other priorities

Admiral Bauer details NATO targets, societal resilience spending, and the need for political decisions on funding defense without undermining welfare.

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    Admiral Rob Bauer Former Chair, NATO Military Committee

Technology, AI and productivity outlook

The panel explores AI, robotics and quantum computing as potential productivity drivers, financing needs for data centers and implications for sovereign and corporate credit.

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    Annabel Rudebeck Deputy Chief Investment Officer & Head of Investment Management, Western Asset Management