Sovereign Deep Dive: LATAM
Navigating tariffs and high financing costs against a backdrop of constrained fiscal space
Navigating tariffs and high financing costs against a backdrop of constrained fiscal space
Slowing global growth and shifting trade policies will lead to economic headwinds for some countries in the region at a time when many are facing challenges in their efforts to reduce fiscal deficits. Debt affordability throughout the region has deteriorated as a result of higher funding costs, but a reduction in global interest rate could provide some reprieve.
- What has been the real impact of tariffs on the region so far and how could this change in 2026?
- Has the deterioration in debt affordability throughout the region peaked, and are sovereigns shifting their funding strategies as they look to consolidate their fiscal accounts?
- What is the credit outlook for Latin American sovereigns above and below the investment grade divide?
Speakers
Jaime Reusche
Vice President, Sovereign Risk
Moody’s Ratings
Adrian Garza
Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy
Moody's Ratings
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Jaime Reusche is a Vice President – Ratings in Moody’s sovereign risk group. He has over 21 years of industry experience. Jaime is responsible for analysis and ratings of Latin American sovereigns. He authors research on developments impacting sovereign credit quality, participates in sovereign rating committees, and is responsible for communicating sovereign risk group views in investor briefings and discussions with policymakers. Previously, he was lead analyst for a portfolio of Central and Eastern European sovereigns in the same group, before refocusing on Latin America.
He had worked as a Director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group covering Latin American credits including Argentina, Chile and Central American countries until 2011. Prior to this, Mr. Reusche held the positions of analyst, associate analyst and senior associate throughout his nearly seven years at the sovereigns group in Moody’s, where he covered Latin American and Eastern European sovereigns, and oversaw data collection for Moody’s semi-annual Country Statistical Handbook.
Adrian Garza is the Chief Credit Officer for Latin America in Moody's Credit Strategy team, where he leads key regional initiatives. In this role, he oversees cross-sector thematic research, coordinates responses to significant credit events, and collaborates with senior leaders to shape Moody's credit strategy across Latin America. He chairs the Latin America Credit Council, facilitating coordination among analytical teams and promoting a consistent view of macroeconomic, financial, and credit developments across the region.
Adrian is a frequent speaker at market briefings, industry conferences, and media events, and is widely recognized for his expertise in Latin American credit trends, sovereign and corporate risk, and sustainable finance.
Prior to his current role, Adrian was part of Moody's Global Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance team, where he led the analysis of utilities and infrastructure issuers across Latin America and the Caribbean. He also contributed to the development of thematic research and thought leadership on sector trends and industry developments. Before joining Moody's in 2010, he worked in investment banking, focusing primarily on transactions in the housing and publishing sectors.
Adrian holds an MSc in Economics and Philosophy from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), an MSc in Carbon Management from the University of Edinburgh, and a BA in Economics from Tecnológico de Monterrey (ITESM). He is also a CFA charterholder.