Credit Trends USA 2026
Global perspective. Local relevance. Real impact.
From inflation to innovation: what will drive the economy?
Credit Trends USA brings together Moody’s analysts to outline the 2026 credit outlook amid policy uncertainty, shifting macro conditions and rapid technological change.
Atsi Sheth and Mark Zandi set the economic scene for the year, covering the path of inflation, labor‑market dynamics and the effects of fiscal and policy choices, as well as whether AI‑driven investment and productivity gains can meaningfully boost growth.
Credit conditions 2026
How will policy and macro shifts define the 2026 credit outlook? Where are the key pressure points across corporates, consumers and banks? What risks emerge from refinancing, leveraged finance and private credit? And how might AI‑related investment reshape growth and funding?
Policy volatility and corporate earnings
Explore how policy uncertainty, cost pressures and the inflation and rates backdrop are feeding into corporate earnings expectations and investment plans, including the role of AI spending and the influence of trade and geopolitics.
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Paloma San Valentin Managing Director, Head of North America Corporate Finance, Moody’s Ratings
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Consumer caution and sector bifurcation
Hear how consumer behavior is evolving across income groups and what that means for sector performance, from essentials and value-led spending to more discretionary categories.
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Paloma San Valentin Managing Director, Head of North America Corporate Finance, Moody’s Ratings
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Key macro swing factors for corporates
Get into the macro variables most likely to move the corporate credit outlook in 2026, including labor market conditions, inflation trends and trade policy, and why they matter for demand and margins.
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Paloma San Valentin Managing Director, Head of North America Corporate Finance, Moody’s Ratings
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Banking sector in goldilocks conditions
Follow the key themes shaping the environment for US banks heading into 2026, including core earnings drivers, capital markets activity and what the latest indicators suggest on asset quality, liquidity and funding.
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Donald Robertson Managing Director, Global Co-Head of Banking, Moody's Ratings
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Risks that could shift banking outlook
Consider what could change the banking narrative, from consumer credit sensitivity to employment trends to policy and inflation surprises, capital management choices and the direction of regulation and supervision.
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Donald Robertson Managing Director, Global Co-Head of Banking, Moody's Ratings
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Refinancing pressures and market dynamics
Track the refinancing pipeline across investment-grade and high yield markets, the state of issuance conditions, and how leveraged finance structures and covenant quality factor into credit risk.
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Paloma San Valentin Managing Director, Head of North America Corporate Finance, Moody’s Ratings
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Private credit growth and drivers
Understand what is powering private credit growth, including borrower demand for tailored solutions and execution certainty, and the types of financing needs supporting continued activity.
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Marc Pinto Managing Director, Global Head of Private Credit, Moody's Ratings
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Private credit trends and globalization
See how private credit is evolving as it scales, from asset-based finance and securitization to geographic expansion, investor participation, transparency expectations and deeper links with banks and insurers.
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Marc Pinto Managing Director, Global Head of Private Credit, Moody's Ratings
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AI, data centers and tokenization
Dive into how AI-driven infrastructure buildouts are influencing capital needs and development timelines, and how tokenization and stablecoins are entering the conversation around market structure and operational risk.
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Jessica Gladstone Managing Director - Ratings & Process Oversight, Moody's Ratings
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Marc Pinto Managing Director, Global Head of Private Credit, Moody's Ratings
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Paloma San Valentin Managing Director, Head of North America Corporate Finance, Moody’s Ratings
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Donald Robertson Managing Director, Global Co-Head of Banking, Moody's Ratings
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Speakers
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CloseMoody's Events
closeAtsi Sheth is Chief Credit Officer and Head of Credit Strategy & Standards at Moody's Ratings.
Prior to her appointment in 2024, she held several leadership roles at Moody's, including Managing Director and Global Head of Credit Strategy and Research from 2021 to 2024.
She also served as Managing Director, Chief Credit Officer for the Americas from 2018 to 2021, and Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Group from 2016 to 2018.
Atsi is a long-time champion of Moody's Community Impact and Inclusion initiatives. She serves on the Board of Moody's Foundation and was the Executive Sponsor of the Pan Asian Impact Business Resource Group.
Earlier in her career, Atsi was the Chief Economist at Reliance Capital and taught courses on International Political Economy and Emerging Markets at Columbia University and Northwestern University.
Atsi has a PhD from Northwestern University and a B.A. from Bombay University.
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi cofounded Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005.
Dr. Zandi is on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, is the lead director of PolicyMap, a data visualization and analytics company used by policymakers and commercial businesses, and is a director of the Coleridge Initiative, a nonprofit that facilitates the exchange of data across governments.
He is a trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public. Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress and conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels.
Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which assesses the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by The New York Times as the “clearest guide” to the financial crisis. Dr. Zandi is host of the Inside Economics podcast.
Dr. Zandi earned his BS from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania.
Jessica Gladstone is Managing Director – Ratings & Process Oversight to lead the RPO teams covering global CFG, PIFG and ESG. Prior to her currently role, she was Associate Managing Director, responsible for managing the aerospace, defense and manufacturing team. Previously, she managed the Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals team, both within the Corporate Finance Group. Prior to becoming a manager, Jessica was a senior analyst covering companies across the healthcare sector, including hospitals, pharmaceuticals and healthcare services providers.
Before joining Moody’s in 2006, Jessica worked in the investment banking group of BMO Capital Markets performing sell-side equity research on the medical device sector. Prior to that, Jessica worked at McKinsey & Co. in the Corporate Finance Group, providing valuation analysis and management consulting services to corporate clients.
Jessica graduated with honors from Vassar College with a dual degree in Biology and French. She is also a designated CFA charter-holder
Donald Robertson is a Managing Director & Global Co-Head of Banking, based in New York. In this role, he oversees the North American analytical teams covering banks, finance companies and securities firms. As a senior leader in Moody’s Ratings’ Financial Institutions Group, his focus is on leading the North American banking franchise, deepening analytical approaches and engagement, and adapting processes, tools and work flows to address rapid digitalization.
Previously, Donald was a lead analyst for global investment banks, securities firms and market infrastructure firms. In this role he had direct responsibility for the ratings of a number of US and European banks, exchange operators, electronic market makers and clearing houses. Donald was the lead author of Moody’s rating methodologies for Securities Industry Market Makers and Securities Industry Service Providers and played an integral role in their development and implementation.
Donald joined Moody’s in 2007 as an accounting specialist. In this role, he developed and authored Moody’s cross-sector rating methodology for Financial Statement Adjustments in the Analysis of Financial Institutions and helped develop and implement Moody’s system for spreading, adjusting and analyzing banks’ financial reporting.
Prior to joining Moody’s Ratings, Donald was a Director of Financial Audit at Siemens Corporation, responsible for leading a team conducting IFRS and US GAAP audits in the Americas’ region. Donald started his career at PwC in Glasgow, UK and thereafter transferred to PwC’s New York Metro region where he was an audit manager with a client base in the pharmaceutical industry.
Donald is a CA and CPA (inactive) and holds an undergraduate degree from the University of Glasgow.
Paloma San Valentin is Head of the Corporate Finance Group (CFG) in North America for Moody’s Ratings, based in New York, overseeing the development of rating opinions and research on corporates in the region. Paloma previously served as Co-Head for US and Americas CFG. From 2010 to 2014, she was a Managing Director in CFG in London, where she was in charge of the analytical teams covering a diverse portfolio of mostly consumer-facing industries including telecom, media, airlines, food processors, real estate, packaged goods, or business services. Paloma joined Moody’s in the summer of 2008, bringing 15 years of international corporate credit and banking experience. Prior to joining Moody’s, Paloma was Country Credit Risk Officer for Bank of America in Spain and responsible for the bank’s Iberian corporate credit portfolio and French general industrial clients. During her career, Paloma also spent three years at Credit Suisse, in different credit risk and investment banking capacities. Ms. San Valentin holds an MBA from Instituto de Estudios Superiores de la Empresa (IESE), Barcelona, Spain, and a BA in Business and Economics from the Free University of Brussels, Belgium.
Marc Pinto is the Global Head of Private Credit. In this role, he coordinates across the financial institutions, corporate, structured, and public and infrastructure finance rating groups to provide thought leadership, and ratings oversight in growth areas of the private credit market, including fund finance, private asset-backed securities, and privately placed investment-grade corporate assets. For over a decade, Marc has held a series of leadership roles of increasing scope and responsibility at Moody’s, including Global Co-Head of Insurance and Global Head of Funds & Asset Management.
Marc is deeply committed to educational and empowerment initiatives, acting as an Executive Sponsor for Moody's CFA and Global Administrative Professionals Networks, a Mentor Advisor in the Women’s Business Resource Group, and a frequent participant in career development seminars.
Marc’s extensive career in the fixed income credit markets, in New York and London, has included leadership roles at sell-side and buy-side firms including Merrill Lynch, Keefe Bruyette & Woods, and Susquehanna International. At Merrill Lynch, Marc was also a top-ranked financial institutions analyst.
Marc is a Chartered Financial Analyst and an alumnus of Columbia Business School and Trinity College (Connecticut).
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