Beyond the Cycle: Demographics and the Global Economic Outlook
Agenda
How demographic trends will influence economic outcomes and outlook
Demographic shifts are reshaping the global economy, with implications for labor supply, productivity, consumer demand and public finances. This session will examine how aging populations, declining birth rates and changing migration patterns could affect economic growth and inflation across advanced and emerging markets. The discussion will also consider how governments and businesses may respond to these structural pressures and what the resulting policy choices could mean for the long-term economic outlook.
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Madhavi Bokil is an Executive Director, heading the Macro Research Team of the Credit Strategy and Standards Group. She is a member of Moody’s Macro Board and the lead author of Moody’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook.
Before joining Moody’s Ratings Madhavi held positions as Senior Economist at AIG and GE Capital, undertaking global macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and CCAR stress testing. Prior to that she held a faculty position in the Department of Economics at Clark University, where she pursued research in and taught International Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics. She holds a BA in Economics from Fergusson College, Pune, India, a MA in Economics from the University of Mumbai, India and a PhD in International Economics from the University of California at Santa Cruz.
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel. He specialises in international economics, defence industrial policy, demographics, immigration, labour markets and foreign direct investment.
He covers primary economic research on structural reform issues, European rearmament and defence, pensions, immigration, European economies and services trade.
He speaks English, German and Danish.
Jacob is also a Non-resident Senior Fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), and Head of European research with 22V Research in New York. Previously, he was a Senior Fellow with the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). He has also worked with the Danish Ministry of Defence, NATO, the United Nations in Iraq, and in the private financial sector. He holds a PhD from Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies.
Madhavi Bokil is an Executive Director, heading the Macro Research Team of the Credit Strategy and Standards Group. She is a member of Moody’s Macro Board and the lead author of Moody’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook.
Before joining Moody’s Ratings Madhavi held positions as Senior Economist at AIG and GE Capital, undertaking global macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and CCAR stress testing. Prior to that she held a faculty position in the Department of Economics at Clark University, where she pursued research in and taught International Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics. She holds a BA in Economics from Fergusson College, Pune, India, a MA in Economics from the University of Mumbai, India and a PhD in International Economics from the University of California at Santa Cruz.
Olivier Chemla is a Vice President in Moody’s Credit Strategy and Standards Group. Based in Frankfurt, he works with the EMEA Chief Credit Officer on ensuring rating consistency across different asset classes. He was a lead analyst for a portfolio of European sovereigns and multilateral institutions between 2018 and 2025. Prior to joining Moody’s in 2018, Olivier served as Chief economist in the French business association for large companies (Afep) for six years. Olivier started his career in the French public administration, holding various positions in the ministries for Labour, Health and Economics. He was appointed Special Adviser to the Minister for the Budget, Public accounts and the State reform in the summer of 2011.
Gabriel Agostini is an Assistant Vice President on the Macro Research Team in Moody’s Ratings’ Center for Credit Research. In his current capacity, he helps establish and articulate the firm’s house views through thematic, data-driven and credit-relevant macroeconomic research, with a focus on labor markets, demographics and immigration. Gabriel is co-author of the Global Macroeconomic Outlook, a flagship quarterly publication with a spotlight on the G20, and a frequent contributor to Moody’s Macro Mondays, a weekly column that contextualizes economic data releases. Before joining the Macro Research Team in 2022, he worked in the Sovereign Risk and US Public Finance Groups at Moody’s Ratings and as a US economist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Gabriel holds a Master of International Affairs in International Economic Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) and a BA from Fordham University. He is a also a CFA Charterholder.
Madhavi Bokil is an Executive Director, heading the Macro Research Team of the Credit Strategy and Standards Group. She is a member of Moody’s Macro Board and the lead author of Moody’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook.
Before joining Moody’s Ratings Madhavi held positions as Senior Economist at AIG and GE Capital, undertaking global macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and CCAR stress testing. Prior to that she held a faculty position in the Department of Economics at Clark University, where she pursued research in and taught International Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics. She holds a BA in Economics from Fergusson College, Pune, India, a MA in Economics from the University of Mumbai, India and a PhD in International Economics from the University of California at Santa Cruz.