アジア太平洋地域経済の見通しウェビナー: 多様な課題、まだら模様の見通し
英日同時通訳をご用意しております
Register to view the On-Demand replay below.
アジア太平洋地域の異質性は、2024年中も続くでしょう。アジア最大の経済大国である中国と日本は、2024年前半まで引き続き苦戦する見込みです。中国は内需の不振が重荷となり、特に不動産市場の調整が足かせとなるでしょう。日銀は超緩和的な金融政策スタンスからの脱却をさらに進めるとみられるものの、2024年の日本の成長率はせいぜい微増にとどまるでしょう。
一方、インドは昨年の内需主導の成長の勢いを足場に、2024年にアジア太平洋地域で最も急速に成長する見通しです。東南アジアをはじめとする他の国々では、緩和的な金融政策と輸出の改善により見通しが上向くため、2024年の後半には安心感が広がるでしょう。
論点:
- 大半の中央銀行が年央の利下げを視野に入れているため、金融政策が引き続き焦点に。中国と日本は例外で、両国の中央銀行はそれぞれ独自の課題に対処。
- モノの輸出は、世界的な需要の回復が見込まれる2024年後半から上向き、サービス輸出は回復が続く。
- 米国との金利差の縮小により、アジア太平洋地域の通貨は、2024年後半に上昇する見込み。日本円は依然として大きな不確定要素。
- 今年、世界の人口の約半数が投票する選挙シーズンが到来。アジア太平洋地域の地政学的影響について解説する。
- 大半のセクターは2024年の後半の回復に向け態勢を整えているものの、リスクは下方に傾いている。特に、中国の成長鈍化の波及効果は、資金調達の逼迫と相まって、企業の信用力を低下させる可能性があり、リスクの早期警告が優先事項に。
*英日同時通訳をご用意しております。
-
SpeakersSteve Cochrane Chief APAC Economist Moody's Analytics
Katrina Ell Director-Economic Research Moody’s Analytics
Stefan Angrick Senior Economist Moody's
Brenda Solis Analytics & Modeling Moody's Analytics
Harry Murphy Cruise Assistant Director - Economist Moody's Analytics
Denise Cheok Assistant Director - Economist Moody's
Confirm cancellation
Something went wrong.
An error occurred trying to play the stream. Please reload the page and try again.
Closeサインイン
Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s Analytics. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s Analytics research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
A highly-regarded speaker, Dr. Cochrane has provided economic insights at hundreds of engagements over the past 20 years and has been featured on CNBC, CNA, Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Radio, and the PBS News Hour. Through his research and presentations, Steve dissects how various components of the macro and regional economies shape patterns of growth. His extensive expertise on U.S. and global economic issues makes also him a popular speaker at client conferences and executive briefings.
Steve holds a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. He also holds a master's degree from the University of Colorado at Denver and a bachelor's degree from the University of California at Davis.
Katrina Ell is a Director-Economic Research in the Sydney office of Moody’s Analytics. Katrina manages the Asia-Pacific edition of Economy.com and is responsible for the research, analysis and forecasting of economies throughout the Asia-Pacific region, with a particular focus on Australia and New Zealand. Katrina is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Sky News. She previously worked as an analyst at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Katrina received her bachelor’s degree in economics (honours) from Macquarie University and is currently completing her Masters in Applied Economics at Macquarie University.
Stefan Angrick is an associate director and senior economist at Moody's in Tokyo. He holds a master's degree from Leipzig University and a PhD from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. He has previously held positions with Oxford Economics, the Asian Development Bank Institute, the Bank of Finland, and Keio University.
Brenda is an economist and Head of Research Insights for Asia Pacific. She leads a team of modellers and data scientists that design and implement quantitative risk management solutions for ESG and climate change, Asset Liability Management (ALM) and corporate credit risk. Brenda is also actively involved in providing research insights to support our customers, developing content for thought leadership in the region and promoting our solutions in globally.
Throughout her time at Moody's, she participated in initiatives that involved developing award winning risk models. In addition, Brenda led numerous consultancy projects with banks, fintech, regulators and investment firms worldwide, focusing on stress testing and model design.
Before joining Moody's Analytics in 2015, Brenda worked for SITA in Prague as a Treasury analyst responsible for the cash flow, currency risk management and bank relationship. In addition, she worked as a Senior Transfer Pricing consultant for EY in Mexico. Furthermore, she worked in the Mexican Ministry of Finance focusing on the liability management of the public debt in local and international markets.
Brenda holds a BA in Economics from Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, and MA degree in Economics and Finance with honors from Charles University in Prague. Currently she is pursuing a PhD in Accounting and Financial Management at University of Reading in the U.K.
Harry Murphy Cruise is an economist at Moody’s Analytics, based in Sydney. Harry is responsible for covering the Chinese and Australian economies, as well as managing Moody’s Analytics’ subnational Asia Pacific forecasts. Harry is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC and Bloomberg. He holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Arts and Commerce from Monash University.
Denise Cheok is an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. She is responsible for forecasting and analyzing metropolitan economies across the AsiaPacific region. She writes on a variety of topics on Economic View particularly on Southeast Asia. Denise holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the National University of Singapore, and a master’s degree in Economics from the University of British Columbia. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Denise previously worked as a trade policy researcher at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation